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NSE Intra-day chart (23 October 2019)
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Market Commentary 24 October 2019
Benchmarks to open marginally in green on Thursday

 

Last hour recovery helped Indian equity markets to close with marginal gains on Wednesday. The start of the day was on cautious note, amid a report stating that corporate India's merger and acquisition activity in the July-September quarter witnessed a downtrend with total deal value falling by more than half over the last year, largely owing to a slump in economic activity and lack of big ticket deals. Key indices traded near their neutral lines during the day, as India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) believes that aggregate states' fiscal deficit slippage to 2.9% of GDP in FY19 revised estimate (RE), from 2.6% in FY19 budget estimate (BE) (Ind-Ra forecast: 2.8%) is mainly due to an expansionary fiscal policy followed by the state governments. Despite flat trade, bourses managed to keep their heads above water for the most part of the session, supported by a report that the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) is planning to set up a single window system to support foreign investors, who want to invest in India. The single-window system may have representatives from both the Centre & state governments. The system will help in getting all relevant approvals and clearances required by foreign investors. Some relief also came, after the International Monetary Fund sees Indian economic growth rebounding to around 7 per cent in the next financial year, supported by measures like monetary policy stimulus & corporate income tax cuts. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 94.99 points or 0.24% to 39,058.83, while the CNX Nifty was up by 15.75 points or 0.14% to 11,604.10.

 

The US markets eked out modest gains on Wednesday after traders digested the latest batch of earnings news from big-name companies like Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT). Boeing and Caterpillar both reported weaker than expected third quarter earnings, with Caterpillar also cutting its full-year outlook due to weak demand for construction and mining equipment. Disappointing guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN) weighed on markets, as the chipmaker cited the impact of ongoing uncertainty about trade. Thus far, of the 98 companies that have reported third-quarter results in the S&P 500, 82.7% have delivered results above street expectations, while 12.2% reported below street expectations. Besides, overall trading activity was somewhat subdued, with a lack of major US economic data keeping some traders on the sidelines. Traders were looking ahead to the release of reports on durable goods orders, new home sales, and weekly jobless claims. A lack of major developments on the Brexit and US-China trade deal fronts also kept traders reluctant to make more significant moves. 

 

Crude oil futures ended higher with gain of over two and half percent on Wednesday after a US government report showed an unexpected weekly decline in US crude supplies. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies fell for the first time in six weeks, down 1.7 million barrels for the week ended October 18. Separately, supplies of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 1 million barrels for the week. However, the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a rise of 4.45 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for December rose $1.49 or 2.7 percent to settle at $55.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent surged $1.47 or 2.5 percent to settle at $61.17 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended tad higher against dollar on Wednesday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Traders took some support after the International Monetary Fund sees Indian economic growth rebounding to around 7 per cent in the next financial year, supported by measures like monetary policy stimulus & corporate income tax cuts. However, gains remain capped as India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) believes that aggregate states' fiscal deficit slippage to 2.9% of GDP in FY19 revised estimate (RE), from 2.6% in FY19 budget estimate (BE) (Ind-Ra forecast: 2.8%) is mainly due to an expansionary fiscal policy followed by the state governments. On the global front, pound firmed against the dollar and euro on Wednesday as the European Union prepared to grant a further delay to Brexit, averting the prospect of Britain departing the bloc next week without a deal. Finally, the rupee ended at 70.91, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 70.94 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7588.20 crore against gross selling of Rs 8662.10 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1787.51 crore with gross sales of Rs 1469.15 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.64 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.32 crore.

 

The US markets ended marginally higher on Wednesday after investors digested a slew of earnings reports from some of America's largest companies. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday, though the upside remained capped by concerns surrounding the Sino-US trade war and Brexit uncertainties. Indian markets ended higher with modest gains on Wednesday, led by gains in IT and auto stocks. Today, the markets are likely to make slightly positive start following firm global cues. Investors will also be looking ahead to the assembly election results for Maharashtra and Haryana. Traders will be getting some encouragement as India jumped 14 places to the 63rd position on the World Bank's ease of doing business ranking, riding high on the government's flagship Make in India scheme and other reforms attracting foreign investment. The country also figured among the top 10 performers on the list for the third time in a row. Some support will also come with the Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister Bibek Debroy's statement that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is hovering around 5 percent is expected to inch up to 7 percent in the next financial year. Though, some cautiousness may come with the Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) statement that India is not likely to benefit from the US-China trade tensions largely owing to existing policy barriers to large-scale production, strict labour laws and difficult land-acquisition process. IT stocks will be in limelight with Former NASSCOM President R Chandrashekhar's statement that a hard Brexit would benefit India's information technology (IT) services companies to strengthen partnerships in the UK with anticipated easing of flow of high-skilled manpower. There will be some buzz in the financial stocks with S&P Global Ratings' report that the Indian financial sector is facing rising risk of contagion and failure of any large finance company will adversely impact economic growth. There will be some reaction in aviation stocks with a private report that a bitter fare war coupled with increase in expenses will push several Indian airlines into losses in the second quarter. Agriculture stocks will be in focus as the government increased the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat by Rs 85 to Rs 1,925 a quintal and for pulses by up to Rs 325 per quintal. There will be some important result reactions too, to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,604.10

11,555.13

11,652.33

BSE Sensex

39,058.83

38,884.38

39,214.97

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

2,967.23

51.20

49.10

53.40

Infosys

605.17

650.60

624.92

666.47

Tata Motors

502.94

132.65

128.67

135.22

SBIN

317.90

275.45

270.13

279.28

ICICI Bank

251.96

455.10

449.20

460.00

 

  • L&T's wholly owned subsidiary -- L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering has been awarded a mega project by HPCL. 
  • Bharti Airtel's subsidiary -- Airtel Africa has partnered with Finablr to enable customers to transfer money from over 100 countries to their Airtel wallets in Africa. 
  • ITC has launched the world's most expensive chocolate priced at Rs 4.3 lakh per kilogram under its Fabelle brand. 
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has received the EIR from the USFDA, for the Formulations Manufacturing facility at Shreveport, Louisiana, USA.
News Analysis