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NSE Intra-day chart (23 April 2018)
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Market Commentary 24 April 2018
Markets likely to make sluggish start on weak global cues


In a very volatile day of trade, Indian equity benchmarks somehow managed to keep their head above water on Monday, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of an informal meeting between Prime Minister Modi and China's Xi Jinping and developments around the impeachment notice against Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra. After making a cautious start, markets gained traction and traded in fine fettle for most part of the day as traders took some support with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel's statement that India's real GDP growth is expected to expand at 7.4% in 2018-19, with risks evenly balanced. He added that several factors are expected to help accelerate the pace of growth in 2018-19. There are now clearer signs that the revival in investment activity will be sustained. Some support also came with Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that India is poised to remain as the fastest growing large economy in the world. In 2018, we expect India to grow at over 7.4%. He added that India's GDP is expected to reach a volume of $5 trillion by FY2025 by leveraging on digitisation, globalisation, favourable demographics and structural reforms. Adding to the optimism, IMF said Global investors feel that the Indian elephant is ready to run after sustained economic reforms. However, markets took U-turn and traders pared almost all of their early gains as sentiments turned cautious with PHD Chamber's report that roadblocks such as delay in GST refunds and after effects of note ban hit India's export prospects in 2017-18 amid a revival in global demand mainly in key markets of the US and the EU. Some concerns also came with a report that with the Reserve Bank giving no relaxation to its February 12 framework on resolution of stressed assets, banks are likely to become more cautious and risk-averse to long-term funding, especially to the infrastructure sector. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 35.19 points or 0.10% to 34,450.77, while the CNX Nifty was up by 20.65 points or 0.20% to 10,584.70.


The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, as investors grappled with rising bond yields and a mixed bag of earnings reports. The closely watched yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed, settling just below the psychologically important 3% level. On the economy front, a measure of the US economy from the Chicago Federal Reserve cooled in March from an upwardly revised, multiyear-high February reading as weaker hiring within a still-strong job market pushed down the broader index. The Chicago Fed's index of national economic activity was a positive 0.10 last month, down from the upwardly revised positive 0.98 in February. February's result was the highest marker for this volatile index since positive 1.19 in October 1999. The index's less-volatile, three-month moving average registered a positive 0.18 last month, down slightly from 0.20 in February. On the other hand, American companies grew faster in April, especially manufacturers, in a reflection of a steadily expanding US economy. But inflationary pressures increased as well. The flash IHS Markit US manufacturing PMI climbed to 56.5 this month from 55.5 and touched a three-and-a-half-year high. A similar survey of service-oriented businesses that employ most Americans also rose. It edged up to 54.4 from 54. A flash reading is typically based on approximately 85%-90% of responses each month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 14.25 points or 0.06 percent to 24,448.69, the Nasdaq dropped 17.525 points or 0.25 percent to 7,128.60, while the S&P 500 was up by 0.15 points or 0.01 percent to 2,670.29.


Crude oil futures edged higher on Monday rebounding to four year highs despite signs that Iran will nix the extension of OPEC's supply quota plan with Russia. Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh, said that if oil prices continued to rise, there will be no need to extend the OPEC/non-OPEC production deal beyond the end of 2018. The prices also jumped on report that a Saudi-led air strike killed the head of the Houthi rebels in Yemen raised the potential for disruptions to the flow of crude in the Middle East. The fear of geopolitical risk, and the reality that supply will tighten again this week, brought the market back. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery gained 24 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $68.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. June Brent crude jumped 65 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $74.71 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Extending losses for a sixth straight session, Indian rupee ended considerably weaker against the dollar on Monday, due to heavy foreign capital outflows. Since start of April, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold nearly a combined $1.4 billion in equity and debt market on the worries of an increase in crude oil prices, which may lead to higher inflation and fiscal slippage. Besides, continued demand for the American currency from importers coupled with the greenback's strength against other currencies overseas, bolstered by rising US bond yields, weighed on rupee sentiments. Traders remained cautious with PHD Chamber's report that roadblocks such as delay in GST refunds and after effects of note ban hit India's export prospects in 2017-18 amid a revival in global demand mainly in key markets of the US and the EU. On the global front, the pound fell to a five-week low against the dollar on Monday, continuing the downward momentum seen last week off the back of worse than expected economic data. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.48, 36 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.12 on Friday.  


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5304.18 crore against gross selling of Rs 5428.27 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2462.16 crore with gross sales of Rs 5674.07 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross selling was of Rs 0.60 crore against no buying.


The US markets ended lower on Monday as traders seemed somewhat reluctant to make more significant moves, however, as a number of big-name companies are due to report their results in the coming days. Asia-Pacific stock markets struggled for direction in early deals and are trading mostly in red, as tech continued to lean on indexes in South Korea and Taiwan, but a weaker yen boosted Japanese shares. Indian stock markets closed modestly higher on Monday, with IT bellwether TCS creating history by becoming the first Indian listed company to hit the coveted $100 billion m-cap figure. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start amid weak global cues. Also, rising oil prices do not portend well for the Indian economy. However, traders will get some support later in the day with the World Bank's statement that India retained the top position as recipient of remittances with its diaspora sending about $69 billion back home last year. Remittances to India picked up sharply by 9.9 per cent, reversing the previous year's dip, but were still short of $70.4 billion received in 2014. Some support will also come with report that exports from special economic zones (SEZs) grew by about 15 percent to Rs 5.52 lakh crore in 2017-18. Export Promotion Council for EoUs and SEZs (EPCES) said that while the goods export from these zones stood at Rs 2.74 lakh crore in 2017-18, shipments of services aggregated to Rs 2.78 lakh crore in the last fiscal. Meanwhile, the government has finalised the new industrial policy, which is set to be announced soon. The new policy will replace the industrial policy of 1991 which was prepared in the backdrop of balance of payment crisis. There will be buzz in Information technology (IT) stocks, as investors will react to Infosys' analyst conference call, held after market hours on Monday. There will be some important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing.


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Yes Bank 






  • HDFC Bank has reported rise of 20.28% in its net profit at Rs 4,799.28 crore for Q4FY18, as compared to Rs 3,990.09 crore for Q4FY17. 
  • Lupin has received final approval for its Tetrabenazine Tablets, 12.5 mg and 25 mg from the USFDA. 
  • M&M's arm Mahindra Electric and cab services provider Meru have tied up for a joint electric vehicle pilot project in Hyderabad. 
  • Tata Steel is raising up to Rs 17,000 crore in loans from a consortium of about six private and foreign financiers.
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