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NSE Intra-day chart (23 January 2019)
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Market Commentary 24 January 2019
Markets likely to open in green following positive global cues


Key Indian equity benchmarks ended near their intraday low points on Wednesday, with Sensex and Nifty losing over 300 and 90 points, respectively. The markets made slightly higher opening of the day, amid reports that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to infuse Rs 10,000 crore on January 24, 2019. This is in line with its continuous efforts to adhere commitment of providing adequate liquidity. The street got also comfort in early morning deals with Employment Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) latest Net Payroll Data report showing that India created 7.32 lakh new jobs in the month of November 2018. The job creation increased from the revised figure of 666437 in October to 732083 in November. Some support came with former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that India will eventually surpass China in economic size and will be in a better position to create the infrastructure being promised by the Chinese side in South Asian countries. However, the key indices soon turned lackluster and ended the session with notable losses, as trading sentiments got hit after a private report showed that India's industrial activity is expected to remain subdued in the near term, owing to muted domestic demand, weak global economic outlook and uncertainty among businesses over the outcome of Lok Sabha elections, 2019. Weak opening of European markets also influenced the mood of Indian equities. The market participants failed to take any senses of relief with reports that the commerce ministry sought stakeholders' views on a report submitted by a panel to revive special economic zones (SEZs). Investors also overlooked NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that urbanisation will be a big driver of economic growth in India going forward, supported by favourable macroeconomic factors, accelerated infrastructure building and continuing reforms. He also said that the Indian economy may even exceed the IMF growth forecast of 7.5 per cent for the country. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 336.17 points or 0.92% to 36,108.47, while the CNX Nifty was down by 91.25 points or 0.84% to 10,831.50.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday following a batch of strong earnings reports. Tech giant IBM Corp. (IBM) posted a standout gain after reporting fourth quarter results that beat estimates and providing upbeat guidance for 2019. Shares of United Technologies (UTX) also moved notably higher after the industrial conglomerate reported fourth quarter results that exceeded Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Consumer products giant Procter & Gamble (PG) also saw significant strength after reporting better than expected fiscal second quarter results. However, upside remain capped as traders expressed uncertainty about the economic impact of the ongoing US government shutdown. A top economic adviser to President Donald Trump acknowledged the shutdown could lead to a lack of economic growth in the first quarter. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett conceded the US could see zero growth if the shutdown continues for the whole quarter. He said It is true that if we get a typically weak first quarter and extended shutdown that we could end up with a number that is very low, or very close to zero. Though, Hassett predicted second quarter growth would subsequently be humongous assuming the government reopened. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 171.14 points or 0.70 percent to 24575.62, Nasdaq gained 5.41 points or 0.08 percent to 7025.77 and S&P 500 was up by 5.80 points or 0.22 percent to 2638.70.


Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday following a report that the European Union may soon launch a mechanism that will allow companies to bypass US sanctions, and trade with Iran. However, losses remain capped as traders looked to the possibility of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which could lead to a tighter market. The Trump administration told US energy companies it could impose Venezuela oil sanctions as soon this week if the political situation there deteriorates further. The US imported about 17.7 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products from Venezuela in October 2018. Benchmark crude oil futures for March declined 39 cents or 0.7 percent to settle $52.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March Brent crude fell 36 cents or 0.6 percent to settle at $61.14 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Halting a three-day slide, Indian rupee ended marginally higher against US dollar on Wednesday, as exporters and banks stepped up selling of the American currency. Traders took support with former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that India will eventually surpass China in economic size and will be in a better position to create the infrastructure being promised by the Chinese side in South Asian countries. Besides, weak US dollar overseas largely supplemented strength to the local currency. However, further gains were restricted as some concern came with a private report showed that India's industrial activity is expected to remain subdued in the near term, owing to muted domestic demand, weak global economic outlook and uncertainty among businesses over the outcome of Lok Sabha elections, 2019. On the global front, dollar fell against other currencies overseas on Wednesday on lingering worries about a global slowdown and continuing US-China trade tensions. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.33, 11 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.44 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5681.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 5233.62 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1163.98 crore with gross sales of Rs 1264.83 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.56 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday on the back of strong quarterly earnings from companies like IBM, United Technologies and Procter & Gamble. Asian markets were trading mostly in green in early deals on Thursday following gains on Wall Street, but gains were capped by political uncertainty in the US and worries about weakening global economic growth. Late hour sell off dragged the Indian markets lower to end Wednesday's trading session near intra-day low levels, mirroring weak global cues as investors stayed away from risky assets amid signs of slowing global growth and an unsettled Sino-US trade dispute. Today, the start of the session is likely to be in green following positive leads from global markets. Traders will be getting encouragement with Crisil Ratings' report showing that India's growth rate is likely to inch up to 7.3 percent in 2019-20, provided that there are normal rains and a stable political outcome of the general elections. It added that India is expected to clock a growth rate of 7.2 percent in the current financial year, up from 6.7 percent in 2017-18. Also, there will be some support with the United Nations' World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2019 report stating that India's economy is expected to grow at 7.4 per cent during 2018-19 and improve to 7.6 per cent in the next fiscal. It added that growth continues to be underpinned by robust private consumption, a more expansionary fiscal stance and benefits from previous reforms. Traders may take note of a report that Fund inflow into the Indian capital market through participatory notes (P-notes) climbed to Rs 79,513 crore till the end of December 2018 in the current financial year, amid SEBI relaxing norms for clubbing of investment limits by FPIs. Meanwhile, markets regulator SEBI has asked stock exchanges to follow the policy of having uniform trading and delivery lot size for commodity derivatives contracts. Currently, exchanges keep different trading lot size and delivery lot size of some commodity derivatives contracts which, at times, put participants in disadvantageous positions. Besides, in order to attract big foreign players in the single-brand retail sector, the government is considering measures to relax the mandatory 30 per cent local sourcing norms by allowing them more time to comply with the regulations. There will be some reaction in agriculture sector stocks with the government think tank Niti Aayog's statement that doubling Farmers Income by 2022 cannot be achieved if they are not able to bring reforms in Agriculture sector. He also asserted that the problems in the agriculture credit system should also be addressed. Also, there will be some buzz in the insurance sector stocks on report that insurance regulator Irdai set up a panel to identity domestically systemically important insurers (SII) and put in place an enhanced regulatory framework for them. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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