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NSE Intra-day chart (22 June 2016)
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Market Commentary 23 June 2016
Markets to remain cautious ahead of British referendum

 

Back home, Indian benchmark indices prolonged the lull for second straight day and finished the session on a dull note, marginally below the neutral line, as investors at large remained reluctant to build on long positions ahead of tomorrow's crucial referendum that will decide whether Britain will stay in the European Union or not. The session largely remained characterized by choppiness as the aimless indices moved only slowly near the previous closing levels after the early decline. Sentiments remained downbeat with the report that India's fuel consumption grew 6.7% in May over that a year ago, reflecting greater use of cars and increased air traffic in an expanding economy, while crude oil production fell 3.3%, increasing import dependence to 81.9% from 81.3%. Besides, weakness in rupee further dented sentiments. However, market participants get some comfort with an UNCTAD report stating that India's foreign direct investment is likely to cross $ 60 billion this year on favourable policy environment even as the FDI flows globally are set to witness a decline. It has said that the large increase of announced greenfield investments in manufacturing industries may provide further impetus to FDI this year. Moreover, monsoon arrived to drought-hit Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, and the Bundelkhand region in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh as well as other northern states of the country. On the global front, all the Asian equity indices barring Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 finished the day's trade in the positive terrain; however European counterparts traded mostly in the positive territory in early deals. Back home, after getting feeble start, the local benchmark indices showed some strength in early trades, but the sentiments turned pessimistic in late morning trades and indices started drifting lower, however the market regained its momentum in the final hour of trade and finished the day with moderate cuts. Finally, the BSE Sensex ended lower by 47.13 points or 0.18% to 26765.65, while the CNX Nifty dropped 16.20 points or 0.20% to 8,203.70.

 

The US markets closed lower on Wednesday, as polls showed the outcome of a UK referendum on whether to leave the European Union remained too close to call a day ahead of the vote. An online survey showed 45% of respondents are in favor of ditching the EU, while 44% prefer to stay. Nine percent of voters were undecided. On the domestic front, investors mostly shrugged off a second day of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on the economy and monetary policy. The Fed chief focused on the US fundamentals, noting that economy is picking up in the second quarter and she is hopeful there will be a commensurate pickup in job growth. Yellen added that it is not impossible for the Fed to raise interest rates even as other central banks ease policy. On the economy front, sales of previously owned homes increased in May to the highest level in nearly a decade, another sign of durable demand in the housing market despite ongoing headwinds. Existing-home sales rose 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million. That was 4.5% higher compared to a year ago and the highest pace since February 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 48.90 points or 0.27 percent to 17,780.83, Nasdaq lost 10.44 points or 0.22 percent to 4,833.32, while S&P 500 slipped 3.45 points or 0.17 percent to 2,085.45.

 

Crude oil futures suffered sharp cuts on Wednesday, on getting a report of lower than expected U.S. inventory draw last week. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week, at 530.6 million barrels. Traders were also concerned with favorable polling results supporting the Leave campaign in the UK on the eve of a highly-anticipated Brexit vote. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery inched down by $0.74 or 1.48 percent to $49.11 a barrel after trading in a range of $48.44 and $50.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for August delivery closed at $49.88, lower by $0.74 or 1.44 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee recouping its early losses ended marginally stronger against dollar on Wednesday due to selling of American currency by banks and exporters. The domestic currency snapped its two day losing streak to end strong. Besides, dollar's weakness against euro and other currencies overseas supported the domestic unit. However, gains remained capped to large extend due to losses in local equity market. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of tomorrow's crucial referendum that will decide whether Britain will stay in the European Union or not. On the global front, dollar was muted on Wednesday following another cautious outlook on the US economy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen yesterday. Finally, the rupee ended 67.47, 2 paise stronger from its previous close at 67.49 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity, the gross buying was of Rs 3694.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 3273.73 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 772.22 crore with gross sales of Rs 2441.43 crore.             

 

The US markets ended modestly lower in the last session, though selling pressure remained relatively subdued, but traders expressed trepidation ahead of referendum on whether Britain will remain in the European Union. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with some of the indices trading modestly lower, while some are trading higher reflecting confidence that the UK will vote to remain a member of the European Union. The Indian markets despite recovering from the lows of the day ended marginally in red in the last session. Today, the start is likely to be cautious as all eyes will be on Brexit referendum later in the day. Traders however, will be getting some support with government's approval of setting up of a ‘Fund of Funds for Startups' with a corpus of Rs 10,000 crore at SIDBI (Small Industries Development Bank), in line with the Start-up India Action Plan unveiled by it in January. Textile stocks, may again see some spurt as the government announced a Rs 6,000-crore package for the textiles and apparels sector to help it wrest a bigger share of the global market. The aviation stocks too may react to a statement from civil aviation secretary Rajeev Nayan that the government's intention in raising the FDI limit in scheduled domestic airlines to 100% via the approval route was not to let foreign airlines acquire Indian carriers. The telecom sector stocks will be in action too, with Union Cabinet approving norms for the biggest-ever spectrum auction, which could make exchequer richer by no less than Rs 5.66 lakh crore. According to a cabinet note, the seven bands in which the airwaves are to be auctioned are 700 MHz, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz, 2300 MHz and 2500 MHz bands.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8203.70

8158.52

8243.62

BSE Sensex

26765.65

26626.30

26896.14

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

163.96

212.90

211.15

214.95

ICICI Bank

122.53

239.00

235.75

242.30

Hindalco

100.66

122.20

120.22

124.07

Tata Motors

76.6

472.70

465.57

482.32

ITC

59.41

354.70

351.78

358.38

  

  • Mahindra and Mahindra's arm Mahindra First Choice Services has opened its first Franchisee Owned Franchisee Operated workshop in Kolkata in West Bengal.
  • Tech Mahindra has acquired Bio Agency, a UK based entity.
  • Lupin has received final approval from the US health regulator to market generic Voriconazole tablets as well as oral suspension for treatment of fungal infections in the American market.
  • Asian Paints has revised its plans for the proposed manufacturing unit for paints and intermediaries in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh.
  • With plans to raise one billion dollar from international markets, YES bank is eyeing to setup an international branch in Singapure as a springboard to tap the Asian markets.
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