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NSE Intra-day chart (20 April 2018)
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Market Commentary 23 April 2018
Markets likely to make pessimistic start on feeble global leads


Indian equity benchmarks ended the choppy day of trade flat with negative bias as minutes of the central bank's policy panel meeting stoked expectations of an interest rate hike. After making a cautious start, markets traded in red terrain for most part of the day as sentiments remained dampened with IMF chief Christine Lagarde's statement that she does not expect the pace of economic reforms in India to continue in an election year. Sentiments also remained dampened after RBI's MPC members flagged several concerns, including an increase in minimum support prices for farmers and high and volatile crude oil prices. Market participants also remained concerned with former finance minister Yashwant Sinha's statement that the cash crunch at ATMs in some parts of the country is a case of complete mismanagement on the part of both the RBI and the government. He said the magnitude of the crisis is huge and the Reserve Bank did not have a backup plan to deal with such a situation. Investors took note of report that, All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA), representing the banking industry said that concrete action is required by the Reserve Bank to address the cash crunch and warned of a protest on the issue. However, markets pared almost all of their early losses in last leg of trade with traders getting some solace with the private report that PE investments witnessed a robust 46 per cent jump in deal values at $1.3 billion in March, taking the total tally for the first quarter of 2018 to $4 billion, up 76 per cent over the same period a year ago. The report added that there were 59 PE transactions worth $1.3 billion in March this year, while in the corresponding period last year it stood at $888 million by way of 70 deals. Investors also got some comfort with private report showing that India has been recording the highest growth rate amongst the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) economies. Finally, the BSE Sensex shed 11.71 points or 0.03% to 34,415.58, while the CNX Nifty was up by 1.25 points or 0.01% to 10564.05.


The US markets closed lower on Friday, as weakness in technology and consumer staples shares offset the latest batch of corporate earnings, which largely continued to beat expectations. The selling pressure intensified as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a more-than-four-year high. The main benchmarks still posted modest weekly gains, however. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that continued gradual rate increases are the right forecast for the Federal Reserve for the next couple years amid stronger US and global economic growth, fiscal stimulus, a strong labor market, better wage growth and stable inflation. Williams added that he is not very concerned about the flat yield curve that some investors worry is an early signal of a coming economic slowdown. The yield curve will likely steepen as the Fed trims its balance sheet and as the federal government issues more debt to fund fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said the narrow gap between long-term and short-term borrowing costs, sometimes seen as a warning of a slowdown ahead, is not a matter of particular concern to him. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 201.95 points or 0.82 percent to 24,462.94, the Nasdaq dropped 91.93 points or 1.27 percent to 7,146.13, and the S&P 500 was down by 22.99 points or 0.85 percent to 2,670.14. 


Crude oil futures edged higher on Friday shrugging off earlier weakness sparked by a tweet from U.S. President Donald Trump, to finish higher for the week. Trump had taken to Twitter early Friday to blame the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for artificially high prices. However, OPEC ministers were quick to respond to Trump's tweet, with Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih saying there is not such a thing as artificial prices. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil, a key metric of activity in the sector, rose for a third-straight week. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery gained 9 cents or 0.1 percent to settle at $68.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. June Brent crude gained 28 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $74.06 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee breached the psychological 65/dollar mark to hit its lowest in thirteen month on Friday, on the back of consistent demand for the greenback from state-run banks and importers. The sentiments remained under pressure going by the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which showed that an increase in interest rates might just be round the corner. The common concern is the impact on inflation of the proposed increase in minimum support prices, the fiscal situation, and the delayed impact of house rent allowances mandated by the pay panel. Some concern also came with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Christine Lagarde's statement that India is unlikely to carry on same speed of major economic reforms in an election year. Besides, stronger dollar sentiment overseas along with lackluster trade in the equity markets also predominantly pressurised the local unit. On the global front, dollar headed higher against most rival currencies on Friday, lifted by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which came on the back of a rally in commodity prices that has pushed up inflation expectations. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.09, 29 paise weaker from its previous close of 65.80 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4857.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 5503.73 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 921.04 crore with gross sales of Rs 2872.29 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.15 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.92 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Friday as traders remained on sidelines ahead of on reports on new and existing home sales, consumer confidence, durable goods orders and first quarter GDP. All the Asian markets were trading in red as investors kept an eye on rising U.S. Treasury yields and digested declines in technology stocks seen stateside. Indian stock market ended flat on Friday, with a largely negative trend in global markets and speculation about a rate hike by RBI prompting investors to tread cautiously. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start amid weak global cues. Traders will also remain on sidelines ahead of an informal meeting between Prime Minister Modi and China's Xi Jinping and developments around the impeachment notice against Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra. However, traders will get some support later in the day with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel's statement that India's real GDP growth is expected to expand at 7.4 per cent in 2018-19, with risks evenly balanced. HE added that several factors are expected to help accelerate the pace of growth in 2018-19. There are now clearer signs that the revival in investment activity will be sustained. Some support will also come with Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that India is poised to remain as the fastest growing large economy in the world. In 2018, we expect India to grow at over 7.4 percent. He added that India's GDP is expected to reach a volume of $5 trillion by FY2025 by leveraging on digitisation, globalisation, favourable demographics and structural reforms. Meanwhile, IMF said Global investors feel that the Indian elephant is ready to run after sustained economic reforms. There will be buzz in stocks related to steel sector on report that India's crude steel output is expected to soar by 38 per cent to 140 million tonnes (MT) by the end of this year. There will be some important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing.


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  • M&M's step down arm has incorporated Mahindra Susten Bangladesh in Dhaka, Bangladesh under the laws of Bangladesh on April 19, 2018.
  • TCS has reported a rise of 4.48% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 6,904 crore for Q4FY18 as compared to Rs 6,608 crore for Q4FY17.
  • Indiabulls Housing Finance has reported a rise of 22.58% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 1,030.37 crore for Q4FY18 as compared to Rs 840.54 crore for Q4FY17. 
  • Yes Bank has received RBI's approval to open two representative offices in London and Singapore.
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