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NSE Intra-day chart (21 November 2018)
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Market Commentary 22 November 2018
Benchmarks to make a cautious start amid mixed global cues


It was another terrible day for the Indian markets, as the Sensex and Nifty has witnessed steep fall during Wednesday's trading session. The key Indices made a cautious start, as anxiety spread among traders with domestic rating agency ICRA's report that after the strong upswing in April-June quarter of current financial year (FY19), GDP growth for July-September quarter is expected to dip to 7.2 percent on account of sluggishness in agriculture and industry. The GDP had grown by a higher than expected 8.2 per cent in the first quarter of FY19 as compared to the year-ago period. Trade remained weak during the whole day, as a private report stating that continuing their selling spree in the September quarter, foreign investors pulled out $900 million from the Indian equity markets on widening current account deficit due to a surge in oil prices and depreciating rupee. The market participants also took note of reports that the government intends to impose higher penalties on companies if they fail to report cases of a data breach of Indian users to concerned authorities. Traders were worried with another report that India's crude oil imports in October rose to their highest level in at least more than seven years. Crude imports in October climbed 10.5 per cent from a year earlier to 21.02 million tonnes. The street failed to get any sense of relief with Employment Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) latest Net Payroll Data report showing that India reported over 2 fold jump at 9.73 lakh new job creations in the month of September 2018 as compared to 4.11 lakh jobs in the corresponding month last year. Traders even shrugged off a report stating that small business sentiment was largely intact in quarter ending September despite macro headwinds including rising crude oil prices and falling rupee. However, indices managed to cut a little of their losses to come off their day's low points, taking support from reports that the Finance Ministry is confident of achieving the disinvestment target of Rs 80,000 crore set for the current fiscal. Any shortfall in disinvestment target would only further worsen the fiscal deficit situation, weakening investor confidence. Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged 274.71 points or 0.77% to 35199.80, while the CNX Nifty was down by 56.15 points or 0.53% to 10600.05.


The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday, a break after two days of steep losses. The gains came in from high-growth stocks such as retail and industrial companies, and energy companies benefited as crude oil rose about 2 percent. The US financial markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday and see an early close Friday. However, gains remained capped after a report released by the Commerce Department showed a much steeper than expected drop in new orders for US durable goods in the month of October, with the sharp decline largely reflecting a substantial decrease in orders for transportation equipment. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders plunged by 4.4 percent in October following a revised 0.1 percent dip in September. Street had expected orders to slump by 2.5 percent compared to the 0.7 percent increase that had been reported for the previous month. Excluding a steep drop in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders inched up by 0.1 percent in October after a revised 0.6 percent decrease in September. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month. A separate report from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged higher in the week ended November 17. The report said initial jobless claims rose to 224,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 221,000. Street had expected jobless claims to slip to 215,000 from the 216,000 originally reported for the previous week.  Though, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report showing a bigger than expected rebound in existing home sales in the month of October. NAR said existing home sales surged up by 1.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.22 million in October after plunging by 3.4 percent to a rate of 5.15 million in September. Street had expected existing home sales to jump by 1.0 percent. S&P 500 gained 8.04 points or 0.30 percent to 2649.93 and Nasdaq surged 63.43 points or 0.92 percent to 6972.25, while Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 0.95 points to 24464.69.


After falling in the previous session, Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday as expectations for a production cut at a meeting of major oil producers early next month. However, prices finished off the day's best level as US government data showed a ninth straight weekly rise in US crude supplies. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic crude supplies rose 4.9 million barrels for the week ended November, 16. The US markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday and hold an abbreviated trading session Friday. Benchmark crude oil futures for January rose $1.20 or 2.3 percent to settle $54.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude surged 95 cents or 1.5% percent to settle at $63.48 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian Money market remained closed on Wednesday on account of Id-e-Milad. 


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4763.10 crore against gross selling of Rs 3708.68 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 533.64 crore with gross sales of Rs 599.21 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.89 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.25 crore.


The US markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P and Nasdaq recapturing a small share of the of the ugly losses accumulated Monday and Tuesday, as traders went bargain hunting following the sell-off seen over the two previous sessions.  However, fears about sluggish global growth, policy errors by the Federal Reserve, and uncertainty about trade relations between the US and China are continuing to weigh on sentiment. Asian markets were mostly trading in green on Thursday in Morning deals, though rising US interest rates and escalating trade tensions kept financial markets on edge amid signs of slackening global growth. Domestic equity markets have extended their losses for second straight-day and ended with losses of over half percent on Wednesday following weak global cues amid fresh foreign outflows. Further, a recovery in crude oil prices also weighed on markets. Today, the start is likely to be a cautious amid mixed global cues. Traders may however get some support on private report that the Reserve Bank's move to extend the deadline for meeting the capital conservation buffer (CCB) norms by one year would help increase lending capacity of banks by over Rs 3.5 lakh crore. The additional amount will help provide much-needed fund for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) that are facing cash crunch. Traders may take note of a report that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have turned net buyers in till date (November, 21, 2018) after logging the worst monthly outflows in October. Foreign investors infused Rs 10,523 crore in November. Though, foreign investors withdrew Rs 38,906 crore (equity funds plus debt funds plus hybrid funds) from Indian markets in October. Meanwhile, the investigation arm of the Finance Ministry has detected tax evasion worth Rs 29,088 crore in 1,835 cases during April-October period of the current financial year.  Of this, the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI), which is enforcement agency for checking indirect tax evasion, has detected evasion of goods and services tax (GST) worth Rs 4,562 crore in 571 cases. the bulk of the evasion was detected in case of service tax. The total number of cases where service tax was evaded stood at 1,145 involving Rs 22,973 crore. There will be buzz in the automobile sector stocks with report that  Rating agency Crisil Research has revised the passengers' vehicles (PV) volume growth forecast downward to 7-9 per cent, from its earlier estimate of 9-11 per cent for the financial year, owing to sluggish demand and higher inventory even during the festive season. The power stocks may too keep buzzing as the High-Level Empowered Committee (HLEC) has suggests pit-stop measures for stressed power units. The Committee has also suggested the Ministry of Coal and Ministry of Power work together to resolve the coal supply issue and enable availability of short-term linkage for a minimum stipulated period (say three months).


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