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NSE Intra-day chart (21 September 2017)
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Market Commentary 22 September 2017
Markets to get a soft start on weak global cues


Erasing their initial losses, Indian equity benchmarks ended the session flat with negative bias and extended their consolidation for third straight day on Thursday. After making a decent start, markets witnessed sharp sell-off which dragged key gauges below their crucial 32,200 (Sensex) and 10,100 (Nifty) levels in early deals, as traders turn concerned with report that advance tax payments by top corporate for September quarter has increased only marginally. Adding to the pessimism, a survey found that optimism level among India's Chief Financial Officers during July-September touched a one and half year low amid concerns related to subdued demand and strain on corporate balance sheet. The Composite CFO Optimism Index for the September quarter of this year declined by 11% year-on-year and by 5.7% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. However, markets got support near those psychological levels and started trimming their losses with traders taking solace after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley hint at a package of measures to boost the economy, while virtually ruling out any cut in duties on petroleum products to check the spike in fuel prices. Jaitley said the government is considering additional measures to bolster economy that has hit a three-year low of 5.7 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal. He said an announcement with regard to the additional steps will be made after consulting Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Traders also get some comfort with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim's statement that India has been growing pretty ‘robustly' and predicted a strong global growth this year. Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 30.47 points or 0.09% to 32,370.04, while the CNX Nifty was down by 19.25 points or 0.19% to 10,121.90.

 

The US markets closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow snapping a nine-day winning streak as investors found few reasons to chase equities a day after the Federal Reserve indicated it still intends to deliver another rate increase in 2017 and detailed the unwinding of $4.5 trillion balance sheet. On the economy front, applications for US unemployment benefits fell sharply in mid-September, reflecting fewer new claims than expected in Florida and Texas following a pair of destructive hurricanes. Initial weekly claims in the period running from September 11 to September 16 fell by 23,000 to 259,000. Earlier in the month claims hit a two-year high after hurricane Harvey. Setting aside new claims tied to the hurricanes, the number of Americans seeking jobless benefits remains near a 44-year bottom. The unemployment rate recently hit a 16-year low of 4.3%, job openings are at a record and companies are hiring at a steady clip. A monthly average of jobless claims, seen as a more stable barometer of labor-market trends, rose by 6,000 to 268,750. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 53.36 points or 0.24 percent to 22,359.23, the Nasdaq was down 33.35 points or 0.52 percent to 6,422.69, and the S&P 500 edged lower by 7.64 points or 0.30 percent to 2,500.60.

 

Crude oil futures snapped their rally mood and ended lower on Thursday ahead of the Opec meeting and traders continued to weigh data showing a sharp rise in U.S. crude production and stockpiles. Some strength in dollar too weighed on the sentiments after the Federal Reserve suggested a rate hike is imminent. Also, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. Meanwhile, Opec and other major producers will meet Friday in Vienna to discuss the market impact of the production-cut agreement and progress toward rebalancing supply and demand. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended lower by 14 cents or 0.3 percent at $50.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery gained 12 cent to $56.41 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended 11-week low against US dollar on Thursday, following continued dollar demand from banks and importers coupled with heavy capital outflows. Traders failed to get relief from Finance minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the government would soon announce measures to revive economic growth that has decelerated to the slowest pace in three years. Moreover, a firming dollar overseas coupled with lackluster trade in the equity markets for the third consecutive session, too weighed heavily on forex sentiment. On the global front, dollar rose to a two-month high against yen and extended its gains against the euro on Thursday after a hawkish-sounding Federal Reserve heightened expectations for an interest rate hike in December. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.80, 53 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.27 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6311.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 7197.13 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 439.19 crore with gross sales of Rs 270.53 crore.

 

The US markets turned mildly weak in the last session with the Dow and the S&P 500 pulling back off yesterday's record closing highs, as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, when it left interest rates unchanged but signaled another rate hike is likely this year. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start on renewed geo-political worries after a report that North Korea could respond to fresh sanctions with a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific and on a downgrade to China's credit rating by S&P Global Ratings. The Indian markets recovering from the lows managed a flat close albeit in red in the last session, following hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve. Today, the start is likely to be in red on sluggish global cues and geopolitical worries, all eyes will be on Opec and non-Opec nations meeting today to discuss a possible extension of oil supply cuts to support prices. However, in latter day of trade markets may get some support with report that the government is considering a plan to loosen the fiscal deficit target so that it could spend an additional Rs 500 billion ($ 7.7 billion) in the financial year ending in March 2018. A separate report has said that given the lack of considerable space both on the monetary and fiscal front to support economic growth, part of the country's forex reserves can be used to support GDP numbers. Meanwhile, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim has said that India has been growing 'pretty robustly' and called for more cooperation among the multilateral system, private sector and the governments to take advantage of the current win-win situation. The infra sector stocks will be in action as the Government's 100 smart cities mission seeks to invest over $15 billion in the next few years to build efficient and effective city management solutions and infrastructure.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10121.90

10067.37

10167.67

BSE Sensex

32370.04

32202.10

32500.29

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

144.97

284.95

282.27

289.02

Bank of Baroda

121.14

145.60

143.87

148.12

Sun Pharma

102.18

519.65

508.10

528.10

Hindalco

98.89

244.55

238.63

248.13

SBI

85.09

268.50

266.77

270.82

  • SBI is looking to hire merchant bankers for the sale of its non-core investments in order to try and boost its capital base.
  • NTPC is planning to add 32 GW of clean energy by 2032, in addition to its plan to create 15 GW of solar capacity under National Solar Mission.
  • ICICI Bank has received an approval for the allotment of 10,800 Basel III compliant unsecured subordinated perpetual Additional Tier 1 bonds aggregating Rs 10.80 billion on private placement basis.
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has received an EIR for its Formulation Srikakulam Plant Unit II, Andhra Pradesh from the USFDA.
News Analysis