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NSE Intra-day chart (19 February 2016)
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Market Commentary 22 February 2016
Markets to get a positive start of the F&O expiry and Rail Budget week


Indian equity benchmarks ended the choppy day of trade with gain of around a quarter percent on Friday with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 23,700 (Sensex) and 7,200 (Nifty) levels. Traders took some encouragement with Moody's Investors Services' report that Indian economy will grow at 7.5 percent in 2016 and 2017 as it is relatively less exposed to external headwinds, like China slowdown, and will benefit from lower commodity prices. Some support also came in from report that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 419 crore on February 18, 2016. However, investors remained cautious with the report that Oil prices has reversed earlier gains on Thursday following a rise in US stockpiles but look set to post their first rise in three weeks after the battered market took heart from a tentative deal by major producers to freeze output at January highs. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings stated that many PSU banks' profitability taking a big hit, their credit profile will come under pressure unless they are adequately capitalized. It pointed to significant quarterly losses at several large public sector banks (PSBs) last week, underscoring long-standing balance-sheet and capital risks stemming from legacy issues pertaining to poor asset quality and weak provisioning. On the global front, Asian markets slipped from near three-week highs on Friday, while European markets traded mixed. Back home, after getting a gap down opening, Indian benchmark indices recovered from the day's low and continued trade around neutral line for most part of the session, though some sharp selling was witnessed in noon session, which pushed the indices to lower levels, but final hour buying followed by some short covering, helped the indices to end session above neutral line. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 59.93 points or 0.25% to 23709.15, while the CNX Nifty added 19 points or 0.26% to 7,210.75.

 

The US markets closed mostly lower on Friday, with the Dow and S&P 500 managing to log their best weekly gains since November. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Loretta Mester stated that she sees no evidence yet that market volatility and oil's sharp price decline have spilled over to the broader US economy by denting risk-taking and the availability of credit. With her outlook for the economy unchanged, Mester added that the Fed should remain on track for gradual reductions over time in the level of monetary accommodation from the central bank. On the economy front, cheaper gasoline and moderating grocery prices kept inflation in check in January, but expenses for medical care and housing are rising. The consumer price index was flat last month. Over the past 12 months the main CPI has risen by an unadjusted 1.4%, double the rate in December. That's the fastest pace since late 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.44 points or 0.13 percent to 16,391.99, the S&P 500 was down by 0.05 points to 1,917.78 while, the Nasdaq was up 16.89 points or 0.38 percent to 4,504.43.  

 

Crude oil futures suffered sharp decline on Friday amid diminished hopes for a supply cut from major producers including Saudi Arabia and Iran. investors expressed skepticism that a deal brokered by Saudi Arabia, Russia and two other OPEC members to cap production at its January levels could be completed. Still prices ended the week up nearly 10% on buzz of output freeze from four top producers. Meanwhile, oil-services firm Baker Hughes said in its weekly rig count that oil rigs in the U.S. fell by 29 last week to 439, marking the ninth straight week of weekly declines. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery plunged by $1.20 or 3.69 percent to  $31.74 a barrel after trading in a range of $31.36 and $32.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for March delivery closed at $33.02, down $1.26 or 3.68 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian money markets remained closed on Friday on account of a local holiday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyer in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3125.34 crore against gross selling of Rs 3419.03 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1232.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 1027.32 crore.        

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, as traders expressed some uncertainty about the outlook for the markets following the significant volatility seen over past some time. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive and some of the major indices are trading with gains of over half a percent, led by the Chinese market which was up after replacing the head of its securities regulator. Japanese market too was higher on weakness in yen. The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, as traders expressed some uncertainty about the outlook for the markets following the significant volatility seen over past some time. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive and some of the major indices are trading with gains of over half a percent, led by the Chinese market which was up after replacing the head of its securities regulator. Japanese market too was higher on weakness in yen. The Indian markets, supported by late buying posted gains of around a quarter percent in last session, logging bets weekly gains in last four months. Today, the start of the crucial week of F&O series expiry and Rail Budget is likely to be in green, tailing the positive cues from the global markets. Traders will also be getting some support with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raising India's growth forecast compared to 7.3 percent expansion projected in November 2015. It has said that Indian economy will continue to see robust growth at 7.4 percent in the next financial year even as only modest recovery is expected in advanced economies. Meanwhile, Finance Ministry has said that the quality of government expenditure has improved significantly in the current fiscal and is resulting in high growth. The Plan Expenditure during April-December showed significant improvement. According to CGA data, it was 74.4 per cent of Budget Estimate at the end of December, as compared to 61.3 per cent a year ago. While, the railways related stocks will remain in focus, the auto sector stocks too will be buzzing with ongoing violent agitation in Haryana impacting many auto companies production. The industry body Assocham has estimated Haryana loss of around Rs 20,000 crore due to Jat stir.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7210.75

7162.18

7243.08

BSE Sensex

23709.15

23553.51

23819.63

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

245.93

164.70

159.43

167.63

Panjab National Bank

163.18

76.15

73.07

78.02

ICICI Bank

160.16

198.80

195.55

201.75

Vedanta

155.74

74.65

73.23

75.83

BHEL

143.84

101.75

98.50

105.15

 

  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm L&T Constructions has won orders worth Rs 1404 crore across various businesses.
  • Bharti Airtel has unveiled its high speed 4G services at Kakinada, in Andhra Pradesh state.
  • Reliance Industries owner of the world's biggest refining complex, is preparing to lift oil from Iran next month after a gap of about five years.
  • As part of its efforts to raise capital, Punjab National Bank is weighing the options of diluting stake in some of its subsidiaries and selling off real estate assets.
  • Tata Motors along with its authorized distributor Sipradi Trading has launched the all-new Mega pick-up - Tata Ace Mega, in Nepal.
News Analysis