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NSE Intra-day chart (20 November 2017)
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Market Commentary 21 November 2017
Markets to start on a positive note on supporting global cues

Indian equity benchmarks managed to keep their head above water on Monday and went home with slender gains. Markets traded choppy throughout the session, as street digested Moody's India upgrade and focused on Gujarat Assembly elections that will take place next month. The street took note of US-based rating agency Moody's report that lower taxes and higher public expenditure could widen budget deficit in 2017-18, but steps taken by the government to broaden the tax base and improve spending efficiency would help in narrowing it going forward. Though, market participants took some comfort with the IMF data, which forms part of the latest World Economic Outlook report of the International Monetary Fund, stating that India has moved up one position to 126th in terms of per capita GDP of countries, though it still ranked lower than all its BRICS peers. Some support also came with SBI research report stating that India might not have to wait for 13 long years for next sovereign upgrade by a rating agency, as the government is firm and committed to adhere with the fiscal consolidation path.  Traders also took some solace with Finance Secretary Hasmukh Adhia's statement that the latest changes have resolved nearly 90% of problems and discontentment related to the indirect tax regime. Separately, Department of Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg has said that he hopes the growth rate to touch 7% by the end of fiscal year. Garg called the current financial year a transitional one, bearing the impact of major reforms like such as the demonetization and the implementation the new indirect tax system-Goods and Services Tax (GST). Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 17.10 points or 0.05% to 33,359.90, while the CNX Nifty was up by 15.15 points or 0.15% to 10,298.75.


The US markets closed higher on Monday, with the Dow leading the gains as investors continued to focus on corporate earnings and prospects for tax cuts. Market sentiment has grown less positive in recent weeks, with investors more concerned about tax policy, fuller valuations and a sense of complacency. From a fundamental perspective, investors are also becoming worried about the flattening yield curve and high yield market weakness, which tend to be bearish signals for equities. On the economy front, the leading economic index surged 1.2% in October and suggested no letup in a steadily growing US economy with the end of the year fast approaching. The increase blew past a meager 0.1% gain in September, when a spate of hurricanes battered Texas and Florida. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 72.09 points or 0.31 percent to 23,430.33, the Nasdaq added 7.923 points or 0.12 percent to 6,790.71, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 3.29 points or 0.13 percent to 2,582.14.


Crude oil futures turned lower on Monday, as traders turned cautious ahead of the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where it's widely expected that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will agree to extend output curbs. OPEC meets next week to determine whether they will extend their supply quota plan through 2018. Oil has come under pressure of late due to speculation that global supplies will continue to outpace demand. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery ended lower by $0.46 at $ 56.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery was down by 51cent to $62.21 a barrel on the ICE.


The Indian rupee after making a modestly positive start lost its direction in the latter trade to end lower on Monday. The domestic currency extending its euphoric mood after last session's surge slipped, as the dollar fell against a basket of other major currencies with investors remaining skeptical of US Republicans' efforts to pass tax cuts. However, the domestic markets remained lackluster and weighed on the currency amid increased dollar demand from importers, finally dragging the rupee lower for the day. On the global front, the dollar pared gains against other major currencies on Monday, as sentiments were impacted by uncertainty over the fate of a major US tax overhaul and political turmoil in Germany. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.09, 8 paise weaker from its previous close of 65.01 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6832.46 crore against gross selling of Rs 5396.08 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2345.92 crore with gross sales of Rs 2428.82 crore.


The US markets managed a modestly higher closing in the last session, though the buying interest was somewhat subdued, limiting the upside for the major averages. Traders got some support with a report showing a much bigger than expected jump by its index of leading US economic indicators in the month of October. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start led by the Japanese market which is up by over a percent in early deals as traders put on hold concerns about US tax reforms and European political issues. The Indian markets despite a range bound trade and some choppiness managed a flat closing with a positive bias in the last session. Today, the start is likely to be in green tracking firm global markets as global growth optimism prevailed. Traders will be getting additional support with international rating agency Moody's report which expecting growth to revive next year, has said a 7.6 per cent GDP expansion can result in corporates reporting a pre-tax profit growth of 5-6 per cent over the next 12-18 months. The rating agency over the weekend had revised upwards sovereign ratings to Baa2 after almost 14 years. According to the rating agency, growth will "rebound strongly in 2018 because the supply chain disruptions of 2017 will end soon". Meanwhile, chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian has hinted that the government may combine the 12 per cent and 18 per cent slabs under the goods and services tax (GST) into one in the near future and reserve the 28 per cent rate only for demerit goods. Markets will also be getting some encouragement with report that investors pumped over Rs 51,000 crore into various mutual fund schemes in October after pulling out more than Rs 16,000 crore in the preceding month.


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