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NSE Intra-day chart (20 June 2018)
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Market Commentary 21 June 2018
Markets to start marginally in green


Indian equity benchmarks ended the Wednesday's trade in green terrain with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 35,500 (Sensex) and 10,750 (Nifty) levels. The markets started the session on firm note, aided by Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that it is a plausible aspiration for India and the country has also potential to become a $10 trillion economy by 2030. He added that this target is likely to be achieved with the help of a sustained average growth of 8% coupled with an assumed devaluation of Indian rupee vis-a-vis US dollar at Re one per year. Domestic sentiments also got boost with a private report stating that advancing gender parity could contribute $770 billion to India's GDP by 2025. The market participants also took note of Moody's latest report that non-financial corporates in the country may show modest improvement in their leverage levels in the current financial year, supported by higher revenue and earnings growth. In the second half, the bourses continued their northward rally to end near their fresh intraday high points, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his government has doubled the Budget for agriculture to Rs 2.12 trillion (Rs 2.12 lakh crore) to achieve its objective of doubling farm income by 2022. Adding some comfort, Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said that the Centre has saved Rs 90,000 crore by digitally transferring money to beneficiaries of 440 government schemes. Some support also came with another private report that despite adverse impact on GST implementation, India saw a 20% increase in both the number of dollar millionaires and their wealth in 2017 to emerge as the fastest growing market for high net population. Investors paid no heed towards report that a 200-basis-point increase in interest rates could cause a sharp rise in emerging-market corporate debt at risk of default, with Brazilian and Indian companies most vulnerable. Finally, the BSE Sensex jumped 260.59 points or 0.74% to 35,547.33, while the CNX Nifty was up by 61.60 points or 0.58% to 10,772.05.


The US markets ended mostly in green on Wednesday, supported by deal-making activity and potentially improving trade relations between the U.S. and the European Union and traders largely shrugged off concerns about a trade war been the U.S. and China that contributed to weakness on Tuesday. However gains remain capped on report that the U.S. current-account deficit, a measures of the nation's debt to other countries, rose 6.9% in the first quarter mostly because of a wider trade gap in goods. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released report that showed an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the month of May. NAR said existing home sales fell by 0.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.43 million in May after plunging by 2.7 percent to a downwardly revised 5.45 million in April. The street had expected existing home sales to climb to an annual rate of 5.52 million from the 5.46 million originally reported for the previous month. Incredibly low supply continues to be the primary impediment to more sales, but there's no question the combination of higher prices and mortgage rates are pinching the budgets of prospective buyers, and ultimately keeping some from reaching the market. Further, NAR stated that incredibly low supply continues to be the primary impediment to more sales, but there's no question the combination of higher prices and mortgage rates are pinching the budgets of prospective buyers, and ultimately keeping some from reaching the market. The report said the median existing home price was at an all-time high of $264,800 in May, up 2.7 percent from $257,900 in April and up 4.9 percent from $252,500 in the same month a year ago. The S&P 500 was up by 4.73 points or 0.17% to 2767.32 and the Nasdaq gained 55.93 points or 0.72 percent to 7781.52, while The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 42.41points or 0.17 percent to 24657.80.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday after U.S. government data revealed the biggest weekly decline in U.S. crude supplies since January. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude supplies dropped by 5.9 million barrels for the week ended June 15. However, Global benchmark Brent crude prices finished lower as traders monitored comments from major oil producers gathering for the much-anticipated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting at the end of the week. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery surged $1.15 or 1.8 percent to settle at $66.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude fell 34 cents or 0.5 percent at $74.74 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Recovering from one-month lows, Indian rupee staged a smart recovery against dollar on Wednesday, following heavy dollar selling from banks and exporters. Investor sentiment turned positive with Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that it is a plausible aspiration for India to become a $10 trillion economy by 2030. He also said that current account deficit (CAD) at 2.5% of GDP won't be a worry as the government has the required instruments to deal with any imbalance created due to foreign fund outflow. Some comfort also came with a private report stating that advancing gender parity could contribute $770 billion to India's GDP by 2025. Besides, strong gains in the domestic equity markets also strengthened the rupee sentiment. On the global front, dollar hit a 11-month high against a basket of its rivals on Wednesday as an escalating trade conflict kept investors from buying higher-yielding currencies and markets braced for growing volatility. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.07, 31 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.38 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4504.05 crore against gross selling of Rs 5914.85 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 569.60 crore with gross sales of Rs 1102.56 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.15 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.01 crore.


The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday, as traders shrugged off concerns about a trade war been the US and China. Asian markets were trading mostly in green on Thursday, on bargain-buying after the previous day's battering. Besides, the absence of fresh developments in the US-China trade war also boosted investor sentiment. Snapping two-day losing streak, Indian equity markets ended with notable gains on Wednesday, following other Asian counterparts after reports suggested that Beijing may announce some policy stimulus to mitigate the impact of China-US trade war. Today, the start is likely to be mildly positive, as traders looked ahead to the Bank of England and OPEC meetings for direction. Markets may get some support with a private report that the credit growth in the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector is improving with the overall exposure reaching the highest level in over a year and impacts of demonetisation and the GST also seem to be subsiding. As per the report the overall credit exposure has shown the highest growth in last five quarters at Rs 54.20 trillion as of March 31, 2018, with MSMEs segment constituting Rs 12.6 trillion (23%) of the commercial credit outstanding. Meanwhile, the government has cleared pending GST refunds to the tune of Rs 38,062 crore to the exporters so far. However, traders will remain concern with former NASSCOM president R Chandrashekhar sounding a note of caution on the economy, saying it could bedisrupted if job growth was not constant. He said government statistics showed that nearly four million jobs in the formalsector were created from September 2017 to March 2018, of which about 50% were in the service sector. Besides, investors also will be eyeing the markets regulator SEBI's meeting where it will discuss proposed overhaul of governance norms for market infrastructure institutions as well as amendments to buyback and takeover norms. Other proposals, including reducing the cooling off period for former employees to one year and review of the watchdog's recruitment policy, are also on the agenda.


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