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NSE Intra-day chart (18 June 2019)
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Market Commentary 19 June 2019
Benchmarks to open in green on positive global cues

 

Snapping two-day losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks closed higher on Tuesday, with Sensex and Nifty reclaiming their crucial 39,000 and 11,650 levels, respectively. Markets made positive start tacking supportive global cues. Some support also came in with Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that circular economy has the potential to generate 1.4 crore jobs in next 5-7 years and create lakhs of new entrepreneurs. Later markets turned volatile as investors remained cautious ahead of US Federal Reserve's meeting, amid escalating global trade war concerns. Some cautiousness also came in as Fitch lowered India's growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, as manufacturing and agriculture sectors showed signs of slowing down over the past year. Some concern came in as private report indicated that June may end up with a deficit, with monsoon remaining poor across the country so far. It added that there is a possibility of 40 per cent deficient monsoon in the month of June in 66 per cent districts across the country. However, late hour buying pushed the markets above neutral lines with recovery in European counter parts and on the back of buying in Oil & Gas, PSU and IT counters. Traders took note of Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that the central bank will not hesitate to take any required measure to maintain the financial stability of the economy. He said the conventional approach to the regulation and supervision of NBFCs had been light-touch, so that they could complement banks. However, to strengthen the sector, maintain stability and avoid regulatory arbitrage, RBI was taking necessary regulatory and supervisory steps, keeping in mind the requirements of the changing times. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 85.55 points or 0.22% to 39,046.34, while the CNX Nifty was up by 19.35 points or 0.17% to 11,691.50.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said he had a very good telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping and will have an extended meeting at the G20 summit next week. This has led to renewed optimism that the US and China could finally reach an agreement to end their long-running trade dispute. Trump had previously threatened to raise tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods if Xi did not attend the G20 summit. The president's telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping added to the positive sentiment surrounding markets amid optimism that the Fed will strike a dovish tone in its statement announcing its latest monetary policy decision on June 19. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged but could signal plans to cut rates as soon as its next meeting at the end of July. Optimism about a potential rate cut has helped to prop up the markets ever since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pledged to act as appropriate to support the US economic expansion. On the economic front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed new residential construction in the US unexpectedly decreased in the month of May, although from an upwardly revised level. The Commerce Department said housing starts slid by 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.269 million in May from an upwardly revised April estimate of 1.281 million. The unexpected pullback came as housing starts in the Northeast plummeted by 45.5 percent to a rate of 73,000 in May from 134,000 in April. Housing starts also slumped by 8.0 percent in the Midwest and fell by 2.4 percent in the West, but housing starts in the South soared by 11.2 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 353.01 points or 1.35 percent to 26465.54, Nasdaq rose 108.86 points or 1.39 percent to 7953.88 and S&P 500 was up by 28.08 points or 0.97 percent to 2917.75.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Tuesday as progress toward a trade deal eases demand worries. US President Donald Trump said he had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. They will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Talks toward a trade deal with China, combined with a more accommodative European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve more than likely talking about cutting rates next month, could set the stage for a big rally in oil. Benchmark crude oil futures for July surged $1.97 or 3.8 percent to settle at $53.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent rose $1.20 or 2 percent to settle at $62.14 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Snapping three days falling streak, Indian rupee staged a smart recovery against dollar on Tuesday, following heavy dollar selling from banks and exporters. Sentiments turned optimistic with Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that circular economy has the potential to generate 1.4 crore jobs in next 5-7 years and create lakhs of new entrepreneurs. Traders overlooked report that Fitch lowered India's growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, as manufacturing and agriculture sectors showed signs of slowing down over the past year. Fall in crude oil prices also supported the rupee. On the global front, dollar pulled back from multi-week highs ahead of the US Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.70, 21 paise stronger from its previous close of 69.91 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4686.84 crore against gross selling of Rs 5009.62 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1982.80 crore with gross sales of Rs 2190.34 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.53 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.12 crore.

 

The US markets surged on Tuesday as investors expressed optimism on a US-China trade deal after President Donald Trump said he will be meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the upcoming G-20 summit. All Asian markets are trading higher in early deals on Wednesday following positive developments overnight on the US-China trade front. Indian markets ended volatile trade marginally higher on Tuesday led by gains in IT and oil marketing companies. Today, the start of session is likely to be in green tracking supportive global cues amid US-China trade optimism. Traders will be getting some encouragement with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statement that it will infuse Rs 12,500 crore of liquidity into the system through purchase of government bonds. Based on an assessment of prevailing liquidity conditions and also of the durable liquidity needs going forward, the RBI has decided to conduct purchase of five government securities. Investors may take note of a private report that seven million jobs were formalised between 2015 and 2018 because of various measures, including GST, demonetisation, Skill India policies, fixed-term contract, maternity leave enhancement, among others. The report estimated job formalisation to the tune of 11 million between 2018 and 2021. Meanwhile, a top American Senator, from the opposition Democratic Party, has urged US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, to reinstate India into the Generalized System of Preference, which President Donald Trump has terminated. Besides, the RBI has set up an eight-member expert committee under the leadership of former chairman of Sebi UK Sinha to review the current framework for the MSME sector. The committee will suggest long-term solutions for the economic and financial sustainability of the micro, small and medium enterprises. There will be some reaction in power stocks with rating agency ICRA's statement that wind energy generation capacity addition is likely to improve to 3.5-4.0 GW in FY2020, supported by the large project awards by the nodal agencies and measures being taken to address some of the key challenges, while land acquisition and transmission connectivity challenges will remain crucial. There will be also some reaction in fertilizer stocks with report that a policy for reimbursement of freight subsidy for transportation of fertilisers through the coastal shipping route has been approved.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,691.50

11,646.03

11,732.08

BSE Sensex

39,046.34

38,888.92

39,185.79

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

1,166.05

109.30

105.10

115.50

SBIN

219.57

340.05

334.57

344.77

Indiabulls Housing Finance

182.07

609.80

590.93

641.93

ICICI Bank

177.61

422.15

416.15

427.10

Tata Motors

140.03

158.30

156.37

160.62

 

  • TCS has partnered with SAP to launch an Intelligent Field Inventory Management solution, powered by SAP Leonardo. 
  • M&M has launched Thar 700, the last batch of 700 units of the iconic 4x4 off-road SUV. 
  • Tata Motors has entered into partnership with Janani Tours, to deploy 25 Tigor Electric Vehicles in Bengaluru. 
  • Axis Bank has set a target of achieving 18 percent Return on Equity on sustainable basis as cost of funds is on decline.
News Analysis