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NSE Intra-day chart (18 January 2016)
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Market Commentary 19 January 2016
Markets to get a cautious start, IT sector to see some upmove

Indian equity bourses commenced the fresh week on a depressing note as the benchmark indices extended previous week's sell-off and sank by over a percentage point to the lowest levels since June 2014. Growing concerns about the growth of the world economy coupled with the relentless fall in the international crude oil prices has mounted pressure across the board on domestic markets. Sentiments remained down-beat with Niti Aayog member Ramesh Chand warning that the country's farm sector crisis is expected to deepen further in 2016-17 if the current trend of falling global commodities prices is not reversed.  He also pitched for more private sector involvement, reforms in land lease policy and easy market access, while emphasizing the need to train farmers with additional skills to get jobs outside farming to tide over the agricultural crisis. Besides, the data released by the government showed that India's merchandise exports shrunk for the 13th straight month in December also weighed on sentiments. Reflecting the sluggish global demand, India's merchandise exports have contracted by 14.75 percent to $22.3 billion. Trade deficit during the month under review widened to the most since August to $11.6 billion as against $9.17 billion in December 2014. On the global front, Asian market ended mostly in red on Monday, tracking a sell-off on Wall Street over the weekend as discouraging US with decline in US retail sales and drop in industrial output in December. Back home, the benchmarks got off to a somber opening, extending the downtrend for the third straight session as pessimistic sentiments prevailed across Asian markets. The selling pressure accentuated in the late afternoon trades as investors took to across the board risk aversion. Moreover, the broader markets too failed to show any kind of fervor and plunged by over two and half percent, underperforming their larger peers by quite a margin. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined by 266.67 points or 1.09% to 24188.37, while the CNX Nifty lost 86.80  points or 1.17% to 7,351.00.


The US markets remained closed on Monday on account of ‘Martin Luther King Jr. Day' holiday.


Crude oil futures continued the decline in holiday thinned trade and reached a 2003 low below $28 per barrel intraday on Monday. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), issued an order on Monday to increase production by 500,000 bpd. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery declined by $1.06, or 3.6 percent, to $28.36 barrel in electronic trading on New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for March settlement fell as $1.27 to $27.67 a barrel on the ICE.


Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Monday due to demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Besides, capital outflows from the equity market and strengthening of dollar against other currencies overseas hit the rupee sentiment. Furthermore, sentiments got dampened on reports that exports contracted for 13th month in a row in December 2015 as outward shipments shrank 14.75% to $22.2 billion amid a global demand slowdown. On the global front, yen shed its earlier gains after China's central bank unveiled a fresh step to curb offshore speculation in the yuan and also set a firmer guidance rate, soothing worries about the risk of a rapid fall in the yuan. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.68, 8 paise weaker from its previous close of 67.60 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3176.35 crore against gross selling of Rs 4211.22 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 394.63 crore with gross sales of Rs 668.23 crore.     


The US markets remained closed, unable to give any cues to the other global markets. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with some indices trading in red, weighed down by some weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, while oil traded near a 12-year low. China's GDP rose 6.8 percent in the three months through December from a year earlier; below than consensus estimate of 6.9 percent, also it was China's weakest since the aftermath of the 2008 global crisis. The Indian markets suffered sharp setback in last session, with not only the benchmarks but broader indices too suffering big jolt on global growth concerns and were dragged down by a massive dip in exports. Big cracks in heavyweights like Reliance Industries too dampened the sentiments. Today, the start is likely to be soft-to-cautious and the spill-over effects of weak Chinese economy data is likely to be seen on the domestic markets too. Traders will remain cautious with  Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that implementation remains the major challenge for India's economy and if it can deliver on its promises the country will be "the place to be". Rajan has said that India needed to improve its infrastructure, human capital (knowledge base of the population), regulations and access to finance. The banking financial stocks will see some action, as the RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and two of his deputies met with banks and other financial institutions on Monday to discuss stressed loans in the banking system. IT pack too will be in action with in line expectation HCL Tech numbers for December quarter and with the industry body Nasscom stating that The IT industry needs to look for "new opportunities" amidst various problems and challenges facing the sector.


Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex



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Bank of Baroda






  • Kotak Mahindra Bank has registered 36.64% rise in its net profit at Rs 634.72 crore for the quarter under review, as compared to Rs 464.52 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Bharat Heavy Electricals has commissioned 660 MW supercritical unit of Lalitpur Super Thermal Power Project located in the state of Uttar Pradesh.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra has entered into an exclusive agreement with Flipkart for online booking of the Mahindra KUV100, a compact SUV which was unveiled at Chakan in Pune. 
  • Wipro has registered 0.61% rise in its net profit at Rs 2004.50 crore for the quarter under review, as compared to Rs 1992.30 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • TCS has launched two retail solutions -- Ocitumeraw Digital Merchandising Suite and Omnistorerm. 
News Analysis