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NSE Intra-day chart (17 June 2020)
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Market Commentary 18 June 2020
Benchmarks to open in red amid weak global cues

 

In a highly volatile session, Indian equity benchmarks gyrated between green and red terrain for most part of the day and finally settled with marginal losses on Wednesday, amid concerns over border tensions with China and the impact of spiking coronavirus on economic recovery. The domestic markets made pessimistic start but soon gave up all losses and entered into green territory, as traders found some support with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that green shoots had started to emerge in the economy and called for the need to focus on both lives and livelihood while ensuring that economic activity gathered pace, with the lifting of various lockdown-related curbs over the past two weeks. However, some selling crept in, as gross direct tax collection fell 31 percent to Rs 1,37,825 crore till June 15 of the first quarter of FY21 with advance corporate tax mop-up declining 79 percent amid coronavirus lockdown, which resulted in shuttering of most of the country's economic activities. In afternoon session, key indices once again entered into in positive zone as some optimism remained among traders with RBI Director S Gurumurthy's statement that the Centre is likely to announce the final stimulus package in the post-COVID era in September or October. He added that in the post-COVID era, the world will shift from multilateralism to bilateralism, and revival of the Indian economy will be faster. Though, Indian bourses failed to hold gains and ended with minor cut, as India has dropped out of the 2020 Kearney FDI Confidence Index.  In the previous year's index, India was ranked at 16th out of the 25 countries. It was 11th in 2018 and 8th in 2017 and 9th in 2016 index. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 97.30 points or 0.29% to 33,507.92, while the CNX Nifty was down by 32.85 points or 0.33% to 9,881.15.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday as coronavirus concerns dragged indexes lower. Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas all saw record increases in new cases on Tuesday, while hospitalizations in Texas, Nevada and Florida hit records. Fed Chair Powell's testimony underscored that Hispanics, African Americans and women have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, since they are more likely to have low-wage service sector jobs dealing with the public, during day two of his Congressional testimony. Powell also said some form of unemployment insurance should continue past the expiration date of July 31, and defended the central bank's more than $2 trillion slate of emergency funding to keep credit flowing during the pandemic. On the economic data front, new residential construction in the US showed a notable rebound in the month of May, according to a report released by the Commerce Department, although housing starts still came in well below economist estimates. The report said housing starts jumped by 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 974,000 in May after plummeting by 26.4 percent to a revised rate of 934,000 in April. Street had expected housing starts to soar by 22.9 percent to a rate of 1.095 million from the 891,000 originally reported for the previous month. New construction of multi-family homes led the rebound in housing starts, surging up by 15.0 percent to a rate of 299,000 in May following a 33.2 percent nosedive to a rate of 260,000 in April.

 

Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday as US crude supplies edged higher. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels for the week ended June 12. That compared with a forecast by S&P Global Platts for an average decline of 3.5 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday, however, reported a rise of nearly 3.9 million barrels. Further, traders also parsed a monthly report released from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which forecasts global oil demand will decline in the second half of the year, but at a much slower pace than the first half, which was marked by lockdowns of businesses to limit the spread of COVID-19. Crude oil futures for July dropped 42 cents or 1.1 percent to settle at $37.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude fell 25 cent or 0.6 percent to settle at $40.71 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Wednesday, as bankers and exporters took to selling of American currency. Sentiments were positive even as gross direct tax collection fell 31 percent to Rs 1,37,825 crore till June 15 of the first quarter of FY21 with advance corporate tax mop-up declining 79 percent amid coronavirus lockdown, which resulted in shuttering of most of the country's economic activities. On the global, dollar was little changed on Wednesday after US retail sales rose more than expected in May, although caution kept investors from aggressively buying riskier currencies like the Australian dollar. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.16, 4 paise stronger from its previous close of 76.20 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4617.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 6096.37 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 719.87 crore with gross sales of Rs 1232.70 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.29 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday amid data pointing to a quick economic recovery against reports showing a spike in new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in a number of southern states. Asian markets are trading in red on Thursday as rising coronavirus cases and prospects of new lockdowns erased earlier confidence about a global economic recovery. Indian markets ended choppy trading session modestly lower on Wednesday amid escalating border tensions with China and a spike in coronavirus cases both at home and abroad. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start amid India-China border tensions and weak global cues. The spike in Covid-19 cases is also likely to weight on investor sentiment. India has added nearly 13,000 cases of coronavirus in 24 hours, taking its total to 367,264, while death toll stands at 12,262. Traders will be eyeing the Supreme Court hearing on AGR dues later in the day. Supreme Court bench wanted the telcos to furnish bank guarantees or the directors of the companies involved to give personal guarantees. Though, some respite may come later in the day as Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the Chief Ministers of 14 States and the Lieutenant-Governor of a Union Territory to think about Unlock 2, following the graded opening of economic activities under Unlock 1 since June 1. Some support may come with report that the finance ministry has released Rs 15,187 crore to 28 states as grants to rural local bodies to help them restart economic activity. The basic grants can be used by the local bodies for location-specific felt needs, except for salary or other establishment expenditure. Meanwhile, markets watchdog Sebi has amended regulations to provide more leeway for companies to raise funds, including reducing the time gap between two qualified institutional placements to two weeks, amid the coronavirus pandemic. There will be some buzz in the NBFCs stocks with Crisil's report that the liquidity cover for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) has not been affected much in April and May, as they managed partial collections and on lack of fresh disbursements. Banking stocks will be in focus with report that no new cars, no interior decoration items, no unnecessary travel, no refurbishment of guesthouses, and a freeze on revision of prerequisites - these are part of a finance ministry diktat to state-owned banks to defer avoidable expenditure until the next fiscal. There will be some reaction in agriculture stocks as the government's wheat procurement so far in the 2020-21 marketing year has reached an all-time record of 38.2 million tonnes, with Madhya Pradesh surpassing Punjab as the country's biggest wheat procuring state.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,881.15

9,808.77

9,978.57

BSE Sensex

33,507.92

33,249.37

33,850.07

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

1,108.32

95.40

92.67

97.27

State Bank of India

738.67

172.95

169.40

176.35

Axis Bank

569.51

389.60

377.35

399.80

IndusInd Bank

409.41

491.15

472.10

506.10

ICICI Bank

371.08

341.95

335.03

349.93

 

  • Maruti Suzuki India has collaborated with IndusInd Bank to arrange attractive finance schemes to help customers buy their favourite car. 
  • HCL Technologies has commenced its operations in Sri Lanka. 
  • SBI has disbursed Rs 8,700 crore under the Rs 3-lakh crore Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme for the MSME sector, pummelled by the coronavirus-induced lockdown. 
  • Bharti Airtel has acquired strategic stake in Edtech startup Lattu Media as part of the Airtel Startup Accelerator Program.
News Analysis