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Market Commentary 18 January 2016
Markets to get another weak start tailing feeble global cues


The bloodbath in Indian stock markets prolonged for yet another session as the benchmarks continued to sway to the tune of depressing global developments and deposed another over a percentage point on the last trading session of the week. Investors squared off position in the dying hours of trade as sentiments turned pessimistic on concerns over bearish global markets, coupled with disappointing macro-data and caution over the third quarter results. Sentiments remained subdued on report that United Nations has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for India for 2016 to 7.5 per cent from 8.2 per cent estimated earlier, largely due to slow progress in implementing reform policies. Furthermore, SEBI Chairman UK Sinha said the Chinese slowdown concerns have posed a new challenge for India and raised uncertainty over the country's growth. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, suffered a nasty ninety nine point laceration to settle below the crucial 7,450 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex got obliterated by over three hundred points and closed just above the psychological 24,450 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too failed to show any kind of fervor and settled with large cut of over two percent. Investors failed to draw any sense of relief with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that India has emerged among the few large economies in the world with a promising economic outlook. He also added that Economic growth is moving in the right direction and its pace is expected to gather momentum in the coming quarters, once the impact of the on-going economic and structural reforms takes the firm root.  Earlier on the Dalal Street, the bourses commenced the day in positive territory as optimistic global cues supported investor sentiments. However, the frontline indices could not capitalize on to the early gains and drifted into the red in very early trade. Thereafter, the indices remained choppy through the session, but the sell-off in the dying hour of trade led the indices to lowest part of the session. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined by 317.93 points or 1.28% to 24455.04, while the CNX Nifty lost 99 points or 1.31% to 7,437.80.

 

The US markets closed sharply lower on Friday, locking in the worst 10-day start to a calendar year ever, as oil prices plunged and investors worried about slowing growth in the US. Both the Dow and S&P 500 finished the week down more than 2%, while the Nasdaq shed more than 3% of its value this week. Oil appeared to be the main driver of concern with global benchmarks settling below $30 a barrel, as investors feared that supplies will continue to rise as Iran prepares to enter the market and Russia continues pumping oil to help support its flagging economy. New York Fed President William Dudley stated that he still expects sufficient economic strength to push the unemployment rate down further and for the economy to be slightly above the long-term trend this year. Dudley did acknowledge that data since the December rate hike has been on the softer side. The key official, who gets a vote at every meeting, explained his vote in support of a rate hike, saying it needed to be done now in a gradual way to prevent sharp tightening later. Dudley played down the difference in rate projections between the Fed's summary of economic projections and the path implied by the federal funds futures market, noting the market incorporates all views, including outliers, and the Fed path is a median projection. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 390.97 points or 2.39 percent to 15,988.08, the Nasdaq was down 126.58 points or 2.74 percent to 4,488.42 while, the S&P 500 dropped 41.51 points or 2.16 percent to 1,880.33.

 

Crude oil futures continued their plunge on Friday on concerns about China and the global supply glut, with Nymex crude settling below $30 a barrel. Iran's oil is coming back to market after years of sanctions, just as Saudi Arabia is having a price war with non-OPEC competitors in order to preserve market share. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery shed $1.76 or 5.66 or 0.5 percent to close at $29.44 a barrel after trading in a range of $29.15 and $31.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for February delivery declined by 1.93 or 6.23 percent to $28.95 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended substantially weaker against dollar on Friday on account of dollar demand from importers and banks, amid losses in equity markets. Sentiments remained down beat on report that United Nations has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for India for 2016 to 7.5 percent from 8.2 percent estimated earlier, largely due to slow progress in implementing reform policies. On the global front, euro continues to hold its own against the US dollar, and received some help from a solid Eurozone Trade Balance report for November, posting a surplus of EUR 22.7 billion, its best showing since April 2015. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.60, 31 paise weaker from its previous close of 67.29 on Thursday. The currency touched a high and low of 67.70 and 67.25 respectively.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3096.66 crore against gross selling of Rs 4248.81 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1774.79 crore with gross sales of Rs 2668.45 crore.     

 

The US markets suffered sharp sell-off in last session on plunge in crude and as sales at US retailers fell slightly in December. The government's producer price index, which includes wholesale costs, dropped 0.2% last month. The Asian markets have made a weak start amid increased risk aversion as weak U.S. economic data, the slowdown in China and the fall in crude oil prices. The Indian markets slid in late hours of last session, with benchmarks losing well over a percent for the day, not only the bluechips but the broader markets too went through sharp selling. Today, the start is likely to be in red and markets extending their slump will fell further on weak global cues. The market sentiments will be completely driven by the global sentiments given the volatile moves on Chinese markets. Traders will also be eyeing the movement of rupee after its sharp fall in last session, meanwhile, industry body Assocham has said that the slide of the rupee was a good sign for India and the country must allow the currency to depreciate to help exports remain competitive. The power sector stocks will be in action as part of its policy for the development of coal gasification, the government has set up an inter-ministerial panel for identifying coal and lignite mines to be put up for auction or allotment. The development of underground coal gasification (UCG ) is envisaged to provide energy security.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7437.80

7387.90

7527.10

BSE Sensex

24455.04

24280.17

24771.28

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

290.90

184.30

177.60

194.40

ICICI Bank

203.04

224.45

218.70

233.25

Vedanta

156.85

72.85

69.65

78.40

Axis Bank

131.79

374.25

363.55

390.40

Punjab National Bank

72.23

92.20

89.37

96.92

 

  • Mahindra & Mahindra, the country's leading SUV manufacturer, has launched its much awaited compact SUV KUV100, the young SUV.
  • Bharti Airtel has made deployment of the largest 3G network in Odisha under 'Project Leap' the company's recently launched network transformation program.
  • State Bank of India has forayed into the wealth management space and also launched a dedicated branch for start-ups in India's technology capital Bengaluru.
  • Hindustan Unilever has registered 22.42% fall in its net profit at Rs 971.4 crore for the quarter under review as compared to Rs 1252.17 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • The country's largest private sector lender ICICI Bank's mortgage portfolio has crossed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark, becoming the first private bank to achieve that milestone.
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