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NSE Intra-day chart (16 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 17 October 2017
Markets to make a flat-to-cautious start on mixed global cues


Indian equity benchmarks started the Diwali week on a very strong note, with Sensex and Nifty hitting all time highs and ending above their crucial 32,600 and 10,200, respectively for the first time ever. Markets started the trade with gap-up opening, as sentiments remained jubilant with report that India's exports recorded a robust growth of 25.67 percent to $ 28.61 billion in September, mainly on account of rise in shipments of engineering, chemicals, and petroleum products. Imports too rose by 18.09 percent to $ 37.59 billion in September from $ 31.83 billion in the year-ago month and the trade deficit narrowed to 7-month low of $ 8.98 billion in the month under review from $ 9.07 billion in September 2016. Some support also came with IMF chief Christine Lagarde's statement, who just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed India's GDP growth rate to 6.7 percent in 2017, slower than the 7.2% it had forecast in April, said that the Indian economy is on a firm footing. Traders booked most of their initial gains in afternoon session, but fresh amount of buying in late trade helped markets to end near intraday high levels. Sentiments turned positive with data showing that India's annual wholesale price inflation (WPI) eased to 2.60% in September from the provisional 3.24% in the previous month. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 0.97% compared to a build up rate of 3.44% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Adding to the optimism, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said that slowdown in India's economic growth that began in 2013-14 has bottomed out and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow 6.9 to 7 percent in the fiscal 2017-18 and 7.5 percent in 2018-19. Traders also took some support with the private report indicating that India's economy will grow by more than 10% annually in the coming decade, buoyed by demographics, reforms and globalization. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 200.95 points or 0.62% to 32,633.64, while the CNX Nifty was up by 63.40 points or 0.62% to 10,230.85.

 

The US markets closed higher on Monday, with all three major indexes logging another round of records, as investors looked ahead to key corporate earnings reports that could set the tone for trading and determine whether the lofty levels of the equity market are justified. Wide-ranging comments from President Donald Trump on tax cuts and health-care reforms following a luncheon meeting with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell did not move the market. However, both issues are critical for stocks as lower taxes are seen as crucial to supporting a continued market rally. On the economy front, the New York Fed reported that its Empire State manufacturing index climbed to a three-year high of 30.2 in October from 24.4 in September. Any reading over zero indicates improving conditions. The general optimism index improved even though some of the key components actually worsened, like new orders, which fell to 18 from 24.9. Shipments did improve, however, to a reading of 27.5 from 16.2, and the number of employees rose to 15.6 from 10.6. Other indexes of note showed that delivery time fell to 3.1 from 14.6, inventories dropped to negative 7.8 from positive 6.5, and prices paid and received both declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 85.24 points or 0.37 percent to 22,956.96, the Nasdaq gained 18.21 points or 0.28 percent to 6,624.01, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 4.47 points or 0.18 percent to 2,557.64.

 

Crude oil futures extended their gains on Monday after conflict between Iraqi and Kurdish forces broke out in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk raising concerns over supply disruptions in the region and on hopes for further demand from China. The Iraqi government began a military assault on the independence efforts of the nation's Kurdish minority, disrupting supplies from some key oil fields. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended higher by $0.42 or 0.8 percent at $51.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery added 0.61 cent to $57.78 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended over three-week high against US dollar on Monday, on persistent selling of the greenback by banks and exporters on the back of lower dollar overseas. The currency gained for the sixth consecutive session, its longest winning streak since February. Traders took some encouragement with report that India's exports recorded a robust growth of 25.67% to $28.61 billion in September, mainly on account of rise in shipments of engineering, chemicals, and petroleum products. Imports too rose by 18.09% to $37.59 billion in September from $31.83 billion in the year-ago month and the trade deficit narrowed to 7-month low of $8.98 billion in the month under review from $9.07 billion in September 2016. Some strength also came with data showing that India's annual wholesale price inflation (WPI) eased to 2.60% in September from the provisional 3.24% in the previous month. Besides, good gains in domestic equity market too kept sentiment highly buoyant. On the global front, dollar fell against yen on Monday on the weaker-than-expected US consumer price index for September released last week.  Finally, the rupee ended at 64.72, 20 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.92 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5505.38 crore against gross selling of Rs 7060.48 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 887.31 crore with gross sales of Rs 436.75 crore.

 

The US markets extended their gains in last session and with the continued upward move, the major averages once again climbed to new record closing highs. However, traders were reluctant to make significant moves ahead of key earnings news later this week. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with some indices trading marginally in red in early deals, as concerns about North Korea reemerged, while the Japanese market was up on speculation that the next head of the Federal Reserve will be more hawkish. The Indian markets hit the record highs in the last session on some encouraging quarterly earnings and favorable comments on the Indian economy from the World Bank and IMF. Today, the start of the day is likely to be marginally in green but there will be some cautiousness too with the flare up of geopolitical tension after North Korea's deputy U.N. ambassador warned a nuclear war may break out any moment. On the domestic front traders will be getting some support with statement of  NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar, who has pitched for fiscal stimulus to boost growth with a rider that additional expenditure should be used only for increasing productivity and capital expenditure. He said that faced with slowing economic growth, the industry has been clamouring for a stimulus package from the government. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has suggested India to consider setting up an independent fiscal council, saying this institution has contributed to better outcomes in the countries where it has been introduced. Pharma stocks are likely to be under pressure on a proposed amendment to the four-year-old Drug Price Control Order (DPCO), which aims to bring non-scheduled drugs under price control by changing the price setting method.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10230.85

10189.65

10257.50

BSE Sensex

32633.64

32490.27

32732.16

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Bharti Airtel

190.57

453.3

437.73

463.33

Reliance Industries

146.34

876.8

861.40

892.10

Hindalco

146.33

271.40

268.30

273.70

ICICI Bank

128.48

274.25

271.07

276.72

Vedanta

122.51

335.20

327.10

339.60

  • Induslnd Bank and Bharat Financial Inclusion have received approval from their respective board for merger of the two entities to create a stronger and more sustainable platform for Financial Inclusion.
  • Bharti Airtel and Millicom International Cellular S.A., through their respective subsidiaries, have concluded the deal to combine their operations in Ghana.
  • SBI has inked a MoU with the Odisha government's Directorate of Treasuries and Inspection for integration of SBI e-Pay with cyber treasury.
  • HCL Technologies has decided to discontinue its joint venture agreement with DXC Technology and formed a new IP partnership with the company.  
News Analysis