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Market Commentary 17 June 2019
Benchmarks to make cautious start amid mixed cues from Asian peers

 

Indian equity benchmarks closed the last trading day of the week near their intraday low points, with Sensex and Nifty losing almost 300 and 100 points, respectively, on the back of heavy losses in Realty, Telecom and Banking stocks. The start of the day was weak, amid credit rating agency, ICRA's latest research report stating that the earnings released by 642 companies in the Indian corporate sector revealed that the revenue growth in the fourth quarter (January-March) of FY18-19 hit a six-quarter low at 10 percent. It added that weak consumer sentiments and softening of commodity prices led to a fall in the revenue growth in the last quarter of FY19. In the last leg of the trade, key indices extended theirs losses, tracking weak global markets. Market participants paid no heed towards a report that India's Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation continued its easing trend for second straight month and hit 22-month low of 2.45% in the month of May 2019, the lowest level since July 2017, as prices of food articles cooled down. As per the data of Ministry of Commerce & Industry, WPI for All Commodities (Base: 2011-12=100) for the month of May, 2019 stood at 2.45% (provisional) as compared to 3.07% (provisional) for the previous month and 4.78% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 289.29 points or 0.73% to 39,452.07, while the CNX Nifty was down by 90.75 points or 0.76% to 11,823.30.

 

The US markets ended slightly lower on Friday as traders weighed rising tensions with Iran and the ongoing trade battle with China. Markets staged a late-day recovery attempt, but failed to settle in green terrain. Tech stocks came under pressure after Broadcom (AVGO) reported better than expected fiscal second quarter earnings but lowered its full-year revenue guidance. Broadcom President and CEO Hock Tan said the chip maker sees a broad-based slowdown in the demand environment due to continued geopolitical uncertainties and the effects of export restrictions on Chinese tech giant Huawei. The comments from Tan led to renewed concerns about the impact of the US-China trade dispute on the broader tech sector. Investors continued to watch developments in the Middle East after a pair of oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on June 13. The incident escalates tensions in the region, heightening fears of a potential US-Iran military confrontation and disruption to oil supplies. On the economic front, the Commerce Department report showed a substantial upward revision to retail sales data for April. The Commerce Department said retail sales climbed by 0.5 percent in May after rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in April. Closely watched core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, climbed by 0.5 percent in May. The April reading was upwardly revised from no change to a 0.4 percent gain. Besides, the Federal Reserve also released a report showing a bigger than expected increase in industrial production in May, although the University of Michigan said its reading on consumer sentiment dropped in June amid concerns about higher tariffs. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 17.16 points or 0.07 percent to 26089.61, Nasdaq slipped 40.47 points or 0.52 percent to 7796.66 and S&P 500 was down by 4.66 points or 0.16 percent to 2886.98.

 

Crude oil futures extended their gains for second straight session on Friday amid concerns about disruptions to the global flow of oil following the recent attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. However, prices came off higher levels as the session progressed with traders reacting to the latest reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on energy demand outlook. The IEA has cut its outlook for oil demand growth in 2019, saying economic sentiment is weakening and the consequences for oil demand are becoming apparent. The IEA revised down its 2019 demand growth estimate by 100,000 barrels to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), but said it would climb to 1.4 million bpd for 2020. Benchmark crude oil futures for July gained 23 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $52.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent rose 70 cents or 1.1 percent to settle at $62.01 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Extending weakness for the second day, Indian rupee ended significantly weaker against dollar on Friday, as good demand for the greenback from importers and weakness in domestic shares. Market participants paid no heed towards a report that India's Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation continued its easing trend for second straight month and hit 22-month low of 2.45% in the month of May 2019, the lowest level since July 2017, as prices of food articles cooled down. On the global front, British pound fell again on Friday as investors trimmed their positions after Brexiteer Boris Johnson moved closer to becoming the next prime minister, putting sterling on course for a six-week losing streak versus the euro. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.80, 30 paise weaker from its previous close of 69.50 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5191.85 crore against gross selling of Rs 5183.44 crore, while, in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1158.09 crore with gross sales of Rs 1121.74 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.96 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.31 crore.

 

The US markets ended marginally in red on Friday as tepid economic data and rising tensions in the Middle East added to concerns over growth and trade. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday ahead of the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve on June 19. Indian markets ended lower on Friday with losses of around 0.75% each, mainly on the back of later hour sell-off led by decline in private sector lenders like IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Today, the start of new week is likely to be cautious amid concerns over rising oil prices and delayed monsoon. India Meteorological Department stated that the overall monsoon deficiency in the country has reached 43 per cent due to its sluggish pace. It said the progress of monsoon was halted due to Cyclone Vayu. As its intensity decreases, they expect monsoon to progress in the next 2-3 days. Some cautiousness will come with report that the continuing of high crude and gold imports pushed India's trade deficit to a six-month high of $15.36 billion in May. Besides, India's exports grew by 3.93 per cent to $30 billion in May on account of healthy growth in sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals and engineering, while imports too rose by 4.31 per cent to $45.35 billion in May. Traders will also be reacting to report that India announced a hike in customs duties on as many as 28 US products, including almond, pulses and walnut, in response to higher tariffs imposed by Washington on Indian products like steel and aluminium. The move will hurt American exporters of these 28 items as they will have to pay higher duties, making those items costlier in the Indian market. Traders will also be concerned with ICRA's report that housing finance growth is set to slow down to 13-15 percent this fiscal, lower than the average of the past three years, due to the lingering liquidity issues faced by non-banking lenders. It added that there can also be an adverse impact on the outstanding housing credit, which stood at Rs 19.1 lakh crore as of March 2019. There will be some buzz in the banking sector stocks with report that the Finance Ministry is evaluating capital needs of state-owned banks, and likely to provide about Rs 30,000 crore in the upcoming Budget to help them meet minimum regulatory capital requirement in the current fiscal.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,823.30

11,776.72

11,890.87

BSE Sensex

39,452.07

39,277.05

39,713.50

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

1,551.70

115.05

111.60

119.75

Indiabulls Housing Finance

299.69

672.25

653.37

699.92

Power Grid

196.76

194.60

192.98

196.58

Zee Entertainment

159.17

336.50

324.02

351.22

Tata Motors

109.21

164.20

162.63

166.63

 

  • Wipro will be opening a new center of excellence for clients in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region in USA. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has launched WagonR (1.2 Ltr) with BS-VI compliant.  
  • Mahindra Partners, the $1 billion Private Equity division of the Mahindra Group, has launched TEQO. 
  • Bajaj Finance has collaborated with MobiKwik to take the Bajaj Finserv Wallet to over 2 million online and offline MobiKwik merchant network stores.
News Analysis