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NSE Intra-day chart (13 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 16 October 2017
Markets to extend the gains to Diwali week

Extending previous session's rally, boisterous benchmarks once again showcased an enthusiastic performance on Friday, with frontline gauges surpassing their crucial 32,400 (Sensex) and 10,150 (Nifty) levels on sustained buying by fund and retail investors ahead of Diwali. Sentiments remained jubilant since start, as key bourses made a gap up opening and traded with traction through the session. Sentiments remained up-beat with traders taking encouragement from double dose of good economic news. India's industrial production grew at a nine-month high of 4.3% in August due to good performance of mining, electricity and capital goods sectors, while the retail inflation declined to 3.28% in September, compared to 4.39% during the same month last year and 3.36% in the previous month. Adding to the optimism, the International Monetary Fund lauded government's recent efforts to lower the compliance burden under the Goods and Services Tax, but it also said that efforts should also be made to lower the tax slabs and minimise exemptions. Some support also came after the World Bank chief said that the reforms undertaken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been significant and the results would be reflected in the mid and long-term growth figures, days after the global lender forecast that India's GDP may slowdown to 7% in 2017. Investors took note of CRISIL's report which highlighted that banks are likely to need nearly Rs 3.3 lakh crore this fiscal as provisioning for large NPA accounts in the current financial year. The report said with the economic value of assets underlying NPAs eroding with time, and resolutions are hard to come by, banks would need to step up on provisioning, mainly for large corporate NPAs. However, small amount of profit booking which took place in dying hour of trade pulled markets to end off day's high. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 250.47 points or 0.78% to 32,432.69, while the CNX Nifty was up by 71.05 points or 0.70% to 10,167.45.


The US markets closed higher on Friday, with Nasdaq recording an all-time high, as President Donald Trump delivered a speech decertifying a nuclear agreement with Iran. Upbeat earnings reports from banks and the highest consumer-sentiment reading in 13 years supported modest buying. Against that backdrop, the Trump administration said it won't certify Iran's compliance with a 2015 nuclear agreement, declaring Tehran a regime that continues to sponsor terrorism and alleging that Iran intimidated international expectations sent to inspect it from building up nuclear armaments. The president also ended billions of dollars in subsidies to insurers under the Affordable Care Act program. The White House said the government can't lawfully make the payments as there is no appropriation for them. On the economy front, the consumer-price index rose 0.5% in September, the second increase in a row and the largest in eight months. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core CPI rose at a much smaller 0.1% rate. A reading on retail sales showed a rise of 1.6% in September, reflecting the largest increase in 2½ years, coming in line with Wall Street expectations. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of the consumer-sentiment index for October came in at 101.1, marking its highest level since 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 30.71 points or 0.13 percent to 22,871.72, the Nasdaq gained 14.29 points or 0.22 percent to 6,605.80, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 2.24 points or 0.09 percent to 2,553.17.


Crude oil futures moved higher on Friday on signs of bullish demand from China and the US. Chinese crude imports rose by roughly 1 million barrels a day in September to 9 million barrels a day, while US consumer sentiment and retail sales were up last month, data showed this morning. That eased investor concerns that global demand is set to weaken over the next year. Traders also got some support with Baker Hughes report that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by 5 to 743 this week after posting a fall of 2 rigs last week. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended higher by $0.85 or 1.7 percent at $51.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery added 0.63 cent to $56.88 a barrel on the ICE.


The Indian rupee, extending its winning streak for fifth straight session, appreciated  to near three-week high against dollar on Friday on continued selling of the US currency by banks and exporters triggered by its weakness overseas. Sentiments remained buoyant as industrial production grew to a 9-month high of 4.3% in August, while retail inflation came in at 3.28% in September. The domestic unit also found support with the World Bank chief's statement that the reforms undertaken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been significant and the results would be reflected in the mid and long-term growth figures. Besides, massive gains of domestic equity market too kept the rupee on a firm ground. On the global front, dollar fell against yen on Friday as market awaited the US inflation data due out later in the day. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.92, 16 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.08 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4393.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 4690.30 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 552.68 crore with gross sales of Rs 569.14 crore.


The US markets bounced back and ended higher in the last session, supported by some upbeat economic data, including a Commerce Department report showing a substantial increase in retail sales in the month of September. The Asian markets have made a green start with some indices trading higher by about a percent in early deals after inflation data in the U.S. added to evidence that global growth is continuing steadily with limited price pressures in the American economy. The Indian market rallied in the last session and the benchmarks touched new record highs on earnings optimism. Today, the start of the holiday truncated week is likely to be in green on positive global cues and traders on domestic front will be getting encouragement with report that India's exports recorded a robust growth of 25.67 percent to $ 28.61 billion in September, mainly on account of rise in shipments of  engineering, chemicals, and petroleum products. Imports too rose by 18.09 percent to $ 37.59 billion in September from $ 31.83 billion in the year-ago month and the trade deficit narrowed to 7-month low of $ 8.98 billion in the month under review from $ 9.07 billion in September 2016. Also there will be some support with IMF chief Christine Lagarde's statement, who just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed India's GDP growth rate to 6.7 percent in 2017, slower than the 7.2% it had forecast in April, has said that the Indian economy is on a firm footing. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that he never talked about any stimulus package for boosting economy. Noting that his government had inherited a huge fiscal deficit just three-and-a-half years ago of 4.6 per cent, he said that gradually India has been moving on a glide path, which will continue. There will be lots of result reactions, while there will be buzz from the primary markets too, as the Godrej Agrovet will make its debut today, the initial public offer was oversubscribed 95.41 times.


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