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NSE Intra-day chart (11 November 2016)
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Market Commentary 15 November 2016
Markets to make a green but cautious start


Friday's session turned out to be a dreadful session for the Indian benchmark indices, which disintegrated like a ‘house of cards' and went on to breach various key technical levels in the over two and half percent freefall as investors feared higher interest rates under President Donald Trump will spark capital outflows from emerging markets like India. Also, impacting sentiment was the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes that dampened sentiment across sectors, especially, real estate, fast moving consumer goods and consumer discretionary. The frontline indices which appeared to be on a southbound journey, desperately kept searching for a bottom through the session, but to no avail as the journey only halted with the session's close. Fall in rupee also dented the market mood on Friday as the currency crashed by 52 paise on account of strong demand of dollar. Emerging market currencies like rupee were hammered by concerns that investors could pull back their funds out of higher-yielding emerging assets and move them back to the US. On the domestic front, around 3 percent drop in index heavyweight State Bank of India (SBI) too dampened the sentiments. The country's largest public sector lender came under pressure on reporting nearly 35% drop in bottomline for the quarter ended September 30, 2016, thanks to an 80% year-on-year rise in provisions and contingencies. Investors failed to get any sense of relief with the report that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in a step to address corporate stress, making sweeping changes to existing loan recast schemes, it has given lenders additional time up to 180 days for hammering out a restructuring package under the scheme for sustainable structuring of stressed asset (S4A). Previously, the time limit was 90 days. Further, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it supports India's efforts to fight corruption through demonetisation, but noted that the transition needs to be managed 'prudently' to minimise any disruption.  Meanwhile, Airlines stocks came under pressure on the report that the government would impose a new levy on some domestic flights. The ministry of civil aviation has proposed the levy to help raise money to fund air travel between India's smaller towns and cities at a subsidised cost. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 698.86 points or 2.54% to 26818.82, while the CNX Nifty dropped 229.45 points or 2.69% to 8,296.30.


The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up to a record-high close even as the broader stock market came under pressure, with investors seeking more clarity on the policy proposals of President-elect Donald Trump's administration. Major indexes surged since the election, with the Dow recording its biggest weekly gain since 2011. The S&P 500 saw its largest weekly advance since 2014 on a belief that Trump's economic proposals will lead to accelerated economic growth. Bonds have been suffering on the view that while Trump's policies could be good for growth, they could also be inflationary, meaning the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates faster than markets expected. Meanwhile, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey taken before Americans voted in this month's presidential election, a measure of US inflation expectations held mostly steady at low levels in October, with only some momentum higher. The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly influential gauge of prices for the US central bank, found that inflation is expected to be identical one and three years into the future. The Nasdaq was down 18.71 points or 0.36 percent to 5,218.40, S&P 500 dropped 0.25 points or 0.01 percent to 2,164.20, while Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 21.03 points or 0.11 percent to 18,868.69.


Crude oil futures made a mildly weak start of the new week and the Nymex crude despite paring early losses closed at their lowest settlement since mid-September. A stronger dollar also weighed on commodities. The dollar hit a yearly high versus major rivals. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery dropped $0.09 or 0.2 percent to close at $43.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for December delivery declined by $0.27 or 0.3 percent to $44.48 a barrel on the ICE.


Indian rupee breaching 67 level ended considerably weaker against dollar on Friday due to demand for dollar from banks and importers amid capital outflows from the local equity markets. Dollar climbed to a four-month high against some currencies overseas on the prospect of higher US interest rates with investors betting Donald Trump's huge spending policies aided to pessimistic milieu. Sentiments weakened further with the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement where he hinted to a probable delay in the rollout of the indirect tax regime. Investors failed to get solace with the NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya's statement that the government's recent move to demonetize Rs 500 and Rs 1000 rupee notes could lead to moderation in inflation unless there is tangible action from the Reserve Bank of India. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.25, 63 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.62 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5667.07 crore against gross selling of Rs 6296.94 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2518.43 crore with gross sales of Rs 1032.15 crore. 


The US markets made a mixed closing after showing a lackluster trade in last session, as traders seemed reluctant to make more significant moves after the strong gains seen in reaction to President-elect Donald Trump's surprise victory. The Asian markets too have made a mixed start and some of the indices are marginally in red despite rise in crude. The Indian markets suffered sharp setback in last session with major averages breaching the important psychological levels. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious. Traders will be a bit concerned with the Congress hardening its position ahead of the winter session of Parliament on the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill, saying it is opposed to the four-slab tax structure in which the top limit is 28 per cent. Meanwhile, the CBEC Chairman Najib Shah has said that the Centre will share the draft model GST law with the states as it prepares for the rollout of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from April 1 next year. Traders will be getting some respite with India's industrial production growing by 0.7 percent in September after contracting for two consecutive months in July and August, though the manufacturing and mining sectors along with capital goods output registered decline. All eyes will be on the twing inflation data of CPI and WPI to be released later in the day. The Tata group stocks will once again be in action with the independent directors of Tata Motors gave board Chairman Cyrus Mistry a tacit nod, but stopped short of an outright endorsement. The aviations stocks will continue to remain under pressure with the government deciding to levy up to Rs 8,500 per flight on major routes to fund the regional air connectivity scheme. There will be lots of scrip specific actions based on the result announcements made during past couple of days and today.  


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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Bank of Baroda










Sun Pharma





  • Sun Pharma has reported net profit of Rs 184.54 crore for the quarter under review as compared to a net loss of Rs 600.23 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Yes Bank has unveiled multiple initiatives for Customer Convenience.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra has reported 27.08% rise in its net profit after tax at Rs 1163.27 crore for the quarter under review as compared to Rs 915.38 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has launched Raloxifene hydrochloride tablets in 60 mg, a therapeutic equivalent generic version of Evista tablets in the United States market, approved by the USFDA.
  • Tata Motors Group global wholesales in October 2016, including Jaguar Land Rover, were at 101,057 units, higher by 9%, over October 2015.
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