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NSE Intra-day chart (12 October 2018)
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Market Commentary 15 October 2018
Markets to make pessimistic start amid weak Asian cues


The last trading day of the week turned out to be fantastic for the Indian equity benchmarks, as they bounced back from the losses posted a day before, supported by rally seen in global markets. The markets made a gap-up opening and never looked back throughout the day, gaining strength to strength as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Domestic sentiments got boost with Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry's (FICCI) latest quarterly survey report that the outlook for India's manufacturing sector is positive for July-September quarter (Q2) with higher production in manufacturing, even as the hiring outlook for the sector remains subdued. Besides, the survey report showed that exports to rise in the second quarter. Adding some comfort, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the number of people filing tax returns in India is likely to double to 7.6 crore during 5 years of present government due to initiatives like rationalisation of tax structure, lowering of rates and anti-black money measures. The street remained cheerful, with Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that the new Industrial Policy is in sync with the challenges and opportunities for India with the fourth industrial revolution technologies and will place the country firmly in the global supply and value chains. Some support also came with a report that the rupee will appreciate from the current level due to sliding crude prices on the back of the downward revision of global growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The market participants reacted positively to the Revenue Department of the Finance Ministry's statement that the government yet again increased import duty on several electronic items and telecom equipment to rein in current account deficit (CAD) and stabilise the rupee. Investors overlooked research agency, India Ratings' report stating that frequent bid cancellations, the falling Indian rupee and lack of clarity on safeguard duty implications are making bidders cautious about competitive tariffs in renewable energy projects. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 732.43 points or 2.15% to 34,733.58, while the CNX Nifty was up by 237.85 points or 2.32% to 10,472.50.


The US markets ended higher on bargain hunting with the major averages bouncing off the multi-month closing lows set on Thursday. The substantial rebound by stocks also came as strong Chinese trade data helped eased concerns over slowing global growth. Figures from China's customs administration showed Chinese exports logged double-digit annual growth in September despite escalating trade tensions with the US. Additionally, top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a multilateral summit in November is under discussion. On the economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing a much bigger than expected increase in US import prices in the month of September. The Labor Department said import prices climbed by 0.5 percent in September after falling by a revised 0.4 percent in August. Street had expected import prices to rise by 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, the report said export prices came in unchanged in September after slipping by a revised 0.2 percent in August. Export prices had also been expected to increase by 0.2 percent. A separate report from the University of Michigan unexpected showed a modest decrease in consumer sentiment in the month of October. The preliminary report showed the consumer sentiment index dipped to 99.0 in October from the final September reading of 100.1. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 287.16 points or 1.15 percent to 25,339.99, Nasdaq gained 167.83 points or 2.29 percent to 7,496.89 and S&P 500 was up by 38.76 points or 1.42 percent to 2,767.13.


Crude oil futures edged higher on Friday, recovering from recent losses, after upbeat exports data from China and the rally in stock markets helped ease concerns about economic slowdown and allay fears about demand growth. Crude oil prices had drifted lower earlier this week amid concerns about excess supply in the market. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed crude supplies in US to have climbed by 6 million barrels in the week ended October 5. Benchmark crude oil futures for November gained 37 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $71.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude was up by 17 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $80.43 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchanged.


Extending its gaining streak for the third straight day, Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar on Friday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Sentiments got boost with a report that the rupee will appreciate from the current level due to sliding crude prices on the back of the downward revision of global growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Besides, good going in the local equity markets coupled with softening crude oil price mainly aided the currency's appreciation. Traders were looking forward to the key economic data -- August IIP and September CPI, which will be announced after the market hours. On the global front, dollar crept up on Friday, reflecting investor confidence in the US economy, despite criticism by President Donald Trump of the Federal Reserve and a sell-off in US equities. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.57, 55 paise stronger from its previous close of 74.12 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4973.96 crore against gross selling of Rs 7728.55 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 657.30 crore with gross sales of Rs 2682.59 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.72 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.04 crore.


The US markets ended significantly higher on Friday on the back of bargain hunting, while the major averages regained some ground following a two-day sell-off. Asian markets were trading mostly in red on Monday as worries over Sino-US trade disputes, a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy and higher US borrowing costs tempered optimism despite a rebound in global equities late last week. Indian markets reversed almost all of their previous session's losses and ended the day in green territory, with Sensex posting its biggest point-wise gain in over two years, driven by fall in crude prices and the recovery in rupee. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start amid lackluster trade in other Asian markets coupled with weak macro-economic data. The Central Statistics Office's (CSO) data showed that India's retail inflation rate slightly rose to 3.77% in September as compared to 3.69% in August, driven by higher food, fuel prices and a depreciating rupee. On the other hand the country's industrial output eased in August with a slower rise of 4.3% as compared to 6.52% in July. Besides, traders will be eyeing another macro data of wholesale price inflation for September scheduled to be release later in the day. Traders will be reacting to the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) report that capital garnered by Indian companies through issuance of shares to institutional investors dived by 78% to Rs 7,000 crore during the April-August period of the financial year 2018-19 as compared to Rs 31,153 crore raised during the corresponding period of the previous financial year. Meanwhile, stressing on the need to strengthen institutions like IMF to tackle financial crisis, Economic Affairs Secretary S C Garg called for quota reforms so that share of emerging nations increases in line with their growing economic position. There will be some buzz in banking sector stocks with Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showing that bank credit rose by 12.51% to Rs 89.82 lakh crore in the fortnight ended September 28, while the deposits grew by 8.07% to Rs 117.99 lakh crore. also, there will be some reaction in telecom sector stocks with Telecom industry body, the Cellular Operators' Association of India's (COAI) statement that the import duty hike on certain communication products will increase industry's import costs by about 10% adding to financial woes, but asserted that operators are fully aligned to the interest of the nation. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.


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  • Wipro has launched its Innovation and Talent Hub in Reading, reinforcing the company's commitment to develop talent and strengthen STEM skills in UK. 
  • TCS has reported a rise of 22.57% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 7,901 crore for Q2FY19 as compared to Rs 6,446 crore for Q2FY18. 
  • Bharti Airtel has launched AirtelThanks - its biggest digital program to delight its valued customers with exclusive benefits. 
  • Mahindra & Mahindra has signed new strategic partnership agreement with Castrol India.
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