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NSE Intra-day chart (12 January 2018)
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Market Commentary 15 January 2018
Markets to make a positive start on supportive global cues and IIP numbers

Extending northward journey for second straight session, Indian equity benchmarks once again hit all time high levels, with Nifty and Sensex ending just shy of their crucial 10,700 and 34,600 levels, respectively. Markets traded mostly in green during the session though some hiccups witnessed in noon deals but it proved short-lived and key gauges managed to end the session comfortably near their all time high levels. Markets started the day on an optimistic note, as traders remained hopeful ahead of Infosys earnings later today and budget next month. Investors also took some encouragement with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that economy is expected to clock growth of 7.5% in 2018. He further noted that as the economy picks up, employment will pick up. Sentiments also remained positive with US-India Strategic Partnership Forum's (USISPF) report that India's decision to relax FDI norms in various sectors would make it a much more attractive destination for overseas investors. Some support also came with Farm Minister Radha Mohan Singh's statement that India's agriculture sector will expand more than 4% in 2017-18, trying to allay concerns raised by the statistical office's projection of sluggish growth in one of the most important segments of the economy. However, sharp sell-off witnessed in noon deals and markets entered into red terrain, as anxiety spread among the traders ahead of key economic data - industrial production (IIP) numbers for November and retail inflation for December - to be released later in the day. some concerns also came with India Ratings and Research's latest report that private sector capital expenditure growth is expected to remain muted with slowing pace, for next two financial years on account of weak domestic consumption demand, global overcapacity and negative impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) on working capital. Markets showed splendid recovery in last leg of trade and settled near fresh all time high levels as traders took some support from private report that economic indicators like PMIs, vehicle sales and steel demand suggest that growth momentum in India has gathered pace in December. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 88.90 points or 0.26% to 34,592.39, while the CNX Nifty was up by 30.05 points or 0.28% to 10,681.25.


Friday turned out to be a fabulous day of trade for the US equity markets, with Wall Street ending the session near record closing levels, as traders remained optimistic about the earnings season after financial giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM), BlackRock (BLK) and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reported better than expected quarterly results. Sentiments also remained up-beat with Commerce Department showing retail sales coming in line with street estimates in the month of December. The Commerce Department said retail sales increased by 0.4 percent in December after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in November. The street had expected retail sales to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.8 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. Excluding auto sales, retail sales still rose by 0.4 percent in December after jumping by 1.3 percent in November. The increase in ex-auto sales also matched estimates. Separately, a report from the Labor Department showed consumer prices rose by less than expected in December, reflecting a sharp pullback in energy prices. The Labor Department said its consumer price index inched up by 0.1 percent in December after climbing by 0.4 in November. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.2 percent.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 228.46 points or 0.89 percent to 25,803.19, the Nasdaq gained 49.29 points or 0.68 percent to 7,261.06, and the S&P 500 was up by 18.68 points or 0.67 percent to 2,786.24.


Crude oil futures extended their gains on Friday, , ending the week at the highest level in more than three years. Traders even overlooked the report of rise in rig counts ongoing optimism that OPEC-led output cuts would continue to drain the market of excess supplies. Oil Services firm Baker Hughes said U.S. energy companies added 10 oil rigs this week, the biggest increase since June, in response the rally in oil prices, it was the first weekly rise in five weeks. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery ended higher by $0.54 or 0.8 percent at $64.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery was up by 0.56 cents to $69.92 a barrel on the ICE.


Indian rupee trimmed some of its early gains but still managed to end higher against the American currency on Friday, on continued dollar selling by banks and exporters. Sentiments remained positive with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that economy is expected to clock growth of 7.5 percent in 2018. He further noted that as the economy picks up, employment will pick up. Besides, a weak dollar against some currencies overseas also supported the gain in rupee. However, gains were capped as anxiety spread among the traders ahead of key economic data - industrial production (IIP) numbers for November and retail inflation for December - to be released later in the day. On the global front, euro continued its ascent against US dollar on Friday, after the minutes of the European Central Bank's December meeting, released on Thursday, were viewed by the market as ‘hawkish', sending the euro sharply higher and back above $1.20. Finally, the rupee ended at 63.62, 4 paise stronger from its previous close of 63.66 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5017.58 crore against gross selling of Rs 5541.05 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1365.55 crore with gross sales of Rs 340.61 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, there was no buying against gross selling of Rs 1.42 crore.


The US markets extended their gains and ended higher in the last session with major averages once again climbing to new record closing highs on optimism about the earnings season after some financial giants reported better than expected quarterly results. The Asian markets have made a green start with some indices heading for a fresh record high amid optimism in global growth; Japanese shares too were rising even after appreciation in the yen the past week. The Indian markets despite modest gains hit fresh record highs in the last session ahead of some key macro data. Today, the start of the new week is likely to be in green and traders will be reacting positively to the IIP numbers, as an exponential rise in the manufacturing output lifted India's total factory production by over 8 percent in November from 1.99 percent in October and 5.1 percent during the corresponding period of 2016-17. On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector expanded by 10.2 percent, whereas mining`s output inched-up by 1.1 percent and the sub-index of electricity generation increased by 3.9 percent. Though, there will be some cautiousness too and the rate sensitive sectors will be under pressure, as India`s annual retail inflation accelerated in December to a 17-month high of 5.21 percent, mainly driven by faster rises in prices of food and fuel products. The IT pack will be in limelight, reacting to the global software major Infosys numbers, which reported consolidated net profit of Rs 5,129 crore for the third quarter of fiscal 2017-18, registering 38.3 percent record annual growth from Rs 3,708 crore in the like period a year ago. There will be some buzz in the logistics stocks, as GST Network has said that from February 1, transporters will not need separate transit passes for moving goods from one state to another as the e-way bill issued to them will be valid throughout India. The new system enables generation of e-Way bill on the portal, through mobile App, through SMS and for large users using offline tool. There will be lots of earnings too, to keep the markets in action.


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  • TCS has entered into an agreement with Transamerica to enable the transformation of administration of its US insurance and annuity business lines.
  • IOC has purchased its third shipload or cargo of US crude oil as it looks at cheaper alternatives that have emerged due to the global supply glut.
  • Bharti Airtel and Amazon India have come together to ring in an entertaining and exciting new year for customers.
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm - Jio has added 6.11 million subscribers in November.
News Analysis