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Market Commentary 14 June 2019
Markets to make slightly negative start amid mixed cues from Asian peers


Indian equity benchmarks staged recovery to end flat on Thursday, with Sensex and Nifty reclaiming their crucial psychological levels of 39,700 and 11,900, respectively. The markets made a negative start of the day, as India's retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to a seven-month high of 3.05% in May. As per the data, the jump in the CPI was mainly due to rise in prices of kitchen items like vegetables, meat and fish. Domestic sentiments remained lackluster throughout the day, amid reports that deal making through the private equity/venture capital routes saw a sharp 54 percent dip in May at a low $2.8 billion due to fewer large deals. There were 82 deals involving PE/VC investments of $2.8 billion in May. The dip comes amid data release of sagging GDP growth fuelled largely by a fall in consumption which has been the one of the favourite for investors as well. But, in the last leg of the trade, key indices pared most of their losses, tracking firm European markets. Trading sentiments got improved after India has been lauded by a high-level panel on digital cooperation launched by UN chief General Antonio Guterres for undertaking revolutionary digital initiatives to ensure economic inclusion for its 1.3 billion citizens. Traders took some support with a report that India's industrial production measured by Index of Industrial Production (IIP) picked up space and accelerated to a six-month high of 3.4% in April mainly on account of improvement in mining and power generation. As per the data released by the Central Statistics Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, IIP with base 2011-12 for the month of April 2019 stood at 126.8. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 15.45 points or 0.04% to 39,741.36, while the CNX Nifty was up by 7.85 points or 0.07% to 11,914.05.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday following two-straight days of losses, led by in part by shares of energy companies as investors monitored a rise in oil prices after two oil tankers were damaged in suspected attacks off the coast of Iran. Besides, continued optimism tame inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates contributed to the strength on markets after a Labor Department report showed bigger than expected decreases in US import and export prices. The Labor Department said import prices fell by 0.3 percent in May following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in April. Additionally, the report said export prices edged down by 0.2 percent in May after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in April. Export prices had been expected to slip by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.2 percent growth originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, a separate report from the Labor Department said first-time claims for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged higher in the week ended June 8. The report said initial jobless claims inched up to 222,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 219,000. Continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, also edged up by 2,000 to 1.695 million in the week ended June 1. The four-moving average of continuing claims climbed to 1,683,250, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 1,675,500. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 101.94 points or 0.39 percent to 26106.77, Nasdaq gained 44.41 points or 0.57 percent to 7837.13 and S&P 500 was up by 11.80 points or 0.41 percent to 2891.64.


Crude oil futures ended higher with gains of over two percent on Thursday as an attack on two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of a potential disruption to the global flow of oil.  US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of orchestrating a series of attacks on tankers in an effort to get the US ease up on sanctions. Two ships were damaged in attacks, which underlined fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that is seen as the world most sensitive crude transportation choke point. Though,  the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand this year to 1.14 million barrels a day, from a May estimate of 1.21 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for July rose $1.14 or 2.2 percent to settle at $52.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent gained $1.34 or 2.2 percent to settle at $61.3 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended weaker against the American currency on Thursday, due to fresh dollar demand from banks and importers. Investors remained concerned with data showing that retail inflation spiked to a seven-month high of 3.05 percent in May, though remaining within RBI's comfort level, as kitchen items like vegetables, meat and fish turned dearer. Lackluster trade in the equity markets too affected the rupee value. However, losses remain capped with United Nations trade report that India received foreign direct investments worth $42 billion in 2018, helped by robust inflows in manufacturing, communication and financial services. On the global front, yen rallied on Thursday as fading hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal at this month's G20 meeting and massive street protests in Hong Kong drove investors into safe-haven assets.  Finally, the rupee ended at 69.50, 15 paise weaker from its previous close of 69.34 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3861.21 crore against gross selling of Rs 4504.78 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 821.60 crore with gross sales of Rs 833.46 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.81 crore.


The US markets ended in green on Thursday with petroleum-linked shares gaining after suspected attacks on a pair of tankers boosted oil prices. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday as investors weighed a variety of factors, including suspected attacks on two oil tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz and lingering worries about trade conflict between the US and China. Indian benchmarks ended choppy trading session almost flat on Thursday as lack of buying triggers kept trading sentiment at a low ebb amid mixed macro-economic data. Today, the markets are likely to make slightly negative start amid mixed cues from Asian peers on rising global geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices. Traders will be eyeing the inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) slated to be announced later in the day. There will be some cautiousness with ICRA's research report stating that the earnings released by 642 companies in the Indian corporate sector revealed that the revenue growth in the fourth quarter (January-March) of FY18-19 hit a six-quarter low at 10 percent. It added that weak consumer sentiments and softening of commodity prices led to a fall in the revenue growth in the last quarter of FY19. However, some support may come later in the day with the Reserve Bank of India's statement that it will infuse Rs 12,500 crore into the financial system through bond purchases on June 20. The decision has taken based on a review of the evolving liquidity conditions and assessment of the durable liquidity needs going forward. Traders may take note of report that markets watchdog SEBI came out with a strict disclosure framework for credit rating agencies wherein they will be required to provide the probability of default for various rated instruments. The regulator's move comes against the backdrop of rising instances of debt defaults and concerns over the role of credit rating agencies in assessing the possible risks. Credit rating agencies have also come under the scanner in the IL&FS case. There will be some reaction in telecom stocks with report that the apex decision making body at the Telecom Department has decided to refer to TRAI for reconsideration the recommendations on spectrum auction amid industry's concerns on pricing. The Digital Communications Commission (DCC) also approved the terms and conditions for 5G trials in the country. There will be some buzz in the insurance stocks with report that the annualised premium equivalent of private sector life insurers saw a 28 percent year-on-year growth in May.


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  • TCS will implement Reserve Bank's centralised information and management system for seamless data collection and validations at a cost of Rs 310.52 crore. 
  • NTPC has signed a JV agreement with EDMC to incorporate a Joint Venture Company between the company and EDMC with equity participation of 74:26, respectively.  
  • ITC has launched its new super-premium luxury hotel in Kolkata-the ITC Royal Bengal. 
  • HCL Technologies is all set to roll out Tech Bee, a company initiative under which it trains and hires students who have completed Plus Two, across several states.
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