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NSE Intra-day chart (13 March 2019)
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Market Commentary 14 March 2019
Markets to open marginally in green amid positive global cues


Extending their northward journey for third straight session, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Wednesday's trade with a gain of around half a percent, surpassing their crucial 37,700 (Sensex) and 11,300 (Nifty) levels. Markets started the session on cautious note as traders remained concern with weak macro-economic data. The latest data from Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed that India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slipped to 1.7% in January from 7.5% a year ago. Subdued performance of the manufacturing sector, especially capital and consumer goods, mainly pulled down the growth in industrial production. Besides, retail inflation rose to four-month high of 2.57% in February. Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 1.97% in January and 4.44% in February 2018. Market participants also remained anxious as former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan warned that capitalism is under serious threat of a revolt as the economic and political system has stopped providing for the people, especially after the 2008 global financial meltdown. Markets gained traction and entered into green terrain with report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would infuse Rs 12,500 crore into the system through open market operations (OMOs) on March 14. Based on an assessment of prevailing liquidity conditions and also of the durable liquidity needs going forward, the RBI has decided to conduct purchase of the government securities under OMOs. Key gauges extended gains in late trade with private report that foreign investments will continue to increase in the Indian market. It noted that there is nothing wrong with the economic outlook in India with inflationary pressure and the number of houses forecasting that the RBI will cut the repo rate a number of times this year, one should be sanguine about the economic outlook in India. Traders took note of report that markets regulator SEBI has withdrew the 20% limit on investments by Foreign Portfolio Investors in corporate bonds of an entity. In a notification, the regulator said the restriction is being withdrawn in accordance with a circular issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 216.51 points or 0.58% to 37,752.17, while the CNX Nifty was up by 40.50 points or 0.36% to 11,341.70.


The US markets ended Wednesday's trading session in positive territory, with gains of over half percent, as investors parsed economic data that included stronger-than-expected durable goods orders.  New orders for US durable goods unexpectedly increased in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The report said durable goods orders climbed by 0.4% in January after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.3% in December. The unexpected increase in durable goods orders was largely due to a continued surge in orders for transportation equipment, which jumped by 1.2% in January after surging up by 3.1% in December. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way higher once again, soaring by 15.9% in January after spiking by 35.7% in December. Meanwhile, reflecting a spike in spending on public construction, the Commerce Department released a report showing US construction spending jumped much more than expected in the month of January. The report said construction spending surged up by 1.3% to an annual rate of $1.280 trillion in January after falling by 0.8% to a revised rate of $1.263 billion in December. Besides, Trump said that he is not in a hurry to hammer out a trade deal with China and that Chinese President Xi Jinping knows that the US can walk away from bilateral talks if an agreement is not reached. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 148.23 points or 0.58 percent to 25702.89, Nasdaq gained 52.37 points or 0.69 percent to 7643.40 and S&P 500 was up by 19.40 points or 0.69 percent to 2810.92.


Crude oil futures ended higher for third straight day on Wednesday as weekly data revealed a surprise decline in US crude stockpiles and a bigger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies fell by 3.9 million barrels for the week ended March 8. That ran counter to expectations for a climb of 3.3 million barrels expected by S&P Global Platts. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday had reported a 2.6 million barrel decline. Besides, supplies of gasoline dropped by 4.6 million barrels, while distillates edged up by 400,000 barrels last week. Benchmark crude oil futures for April surged $1.39 or 2.4 percent to settle at $58.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude gained 88 cents or 1.3 percent to settle at $67.55 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee continued its upward march for the third straight session on Wednesday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Sentiments got up-beat with private report that foreign investments will continue to increase in the Indian market. It noted that there is nothing wrong with the economic outlook in India with inflationary pressure and the number of houses forecasting that the RBI will cut the repo rate a number of times this year, one should be sanguine about the economic outlook in India. The rupee's rise was also aided by dollar's weakness against other currencies and positive trend in equity market. However, gains remain capped as cautiousness remained in markets with data showing that retail inflation jumped to a four-month high of 2.57 percent in February, and industrial growth slipped to 1.7 percent in January on account of manufacturing sector slowdown. On the global front, Sterling strengthened the most among the Group-of-10 currencies Wednesday ahead of a vote where analysts expect Parliament to reject leaving the EU without a deal. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.54, 17 paise stronger from its previous close of 69.71 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10068.51 crore against gross selling of Rs 6511.78 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3445.76 crore with gross sales of Rs 3118.70 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.38 crore.


The US markets ended in green on Wednesday after economic data showed fresh signs of stability in the manufacturing sector and muted inflation. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Thursday as investors await data from China for clues about the health of its economy. Indian markets ended higher for third straight session on Wednesday amid continued buying by foreign investors. Today, the markets are likely to open marginally in green amid positive global cues. Market participants will be looking forward to Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to be released later in the day. Traders will be taking encouragement with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statement that it will inject long-term liquidity worth $5 billion into the system through foreign exchange swap arrangement with banks for three years, in order to meet the durable liquidity needs of the system. Also, there will be some support with report that the private companies in manufacturing sector posted a 24.9% growth in net profit in the October-December quarter of the current fiscal on annual basis, benefitting from lower tax provisions. Some support may come with report that the RBI has relaxed norms for imports of capital and non-capital goods by raising the trade credit limit to $150 million under the automatic route. However, it has reduced the all-inclusive cost (all-in-cost) for overseas loans to benchmark rate plus 250 basis points (bps) from the earlier 350 bps. Traders may take note of minister for Law & Justice and Electronics & Information Technology, Ravi Shankar Prasad's statement that India could be a $3 trillion digital economy in the next four to five years. That is the goal they have set. Digital India is designed to empower ordinary Indians. Their idea is to make India the biggest manufacturing hub in electronics with 1crore employment in the electronics sector and 35-40 lakhs in the software sector. Meanwhile, markets regulator SEBI has came out with the framework and timeline for the counter offer process. The counter offer is made in case the price discovered through reverse book building (RBB) is not acceptable to the promoter or the acquirer. There will be some buzz in the auto sector stocks with the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) of India's data stating that the auto industry's retail sales in February dropped 8.06%, as weak consumer demand continues for the sixth straight month. The total auto sales in February were 1,452,078, compared to 1,579,349 units last year.


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