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NSE Intra-day chart (13 March 2018)
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Market Commentary 14 March 2018
Markets likely to make pessimistic start on feeble global cues


Indian equity benchmarks witnessed consolidation on Tuesday as traders opted to book profit after yesterday's rally. Though, markets started the session on an optimistic note with traders reacting positively to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, as strong manufacturing growth and a rebound in the consumer durables sector lifted India's factory production to 7.5% in January from 7.1% in December. As per the street expectation it was likely to come at 6.6%. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2017-18 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 4.1%. Some support also came with report that Inflation as measured by the CPI slowed to 4.44% in February from 5.07% in January, mostly due to easing food and fuel prices. Inflation in the food and beverages segment slowed to 3.38% in February from 4.58% in the previous month. Markets gained momentum as some support came with report that foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased steadily in the country with total capital inflows reaching $208.99 billion during April 2014 to December 2017 period. The main sectors that received maximum foreign inflows include services, computer software and hardware, telecommunications, construction, trading and automobile. However, markets took U-turn and entered into red terrain as traders turned anxious with private report raising concerns that even as the economy has largely recovered from the shocks of demonetization and GST implementation, micro enterprises with borrowings of under Rs 10 lakh are yet to fully recover. The report reiterated that the situation has improved in all segments except those with borrowings less than Rs 50 lakh, where the systemic exposure has not caught up with pre-demonetization levels. Separately, a report showed that India's monsoon rains are expected to be slightly below normal this year, while parts of Australia's eastern grain belt could be drier as an El Nino weather pattern may develop in the second half of 2018. Finally, the BSE Sensex shed 61.16 points or 0.18% to 33,856.78, while the CNX Nifty was up by 5.45 points or 0.05% to 10,426.85.


The US markets closed lower on Tuesday, as the technology and financial sectors came under pressure even as investors mostly shrugged off President Donald Trump's decision to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Stocks had rallied earlier after closely watched consumer-inflation data was in line with expectations, helping to placate worries that rising prices would hasten interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. On the economy front, the index of small-business optimism from the National Federation of Independent Businesses rose 0.7 point in February to a reading of 107.6, the second-highest reading in its history. The index of sentiment among small-business owners has been on a tear ever since tax cuts were enacted. Separately, the consumer price index rose a mild 0.2% in February after a worrisome 0.5% increase in the first month of the year. The cost of housing rose and the price of clothes and auto insurance posted surprisingly large gains for the second month in a row. The increase in the CPI over the past 12 months edged up to 2.2% from 2.1%. After stripping out gas and food, the more closely followed core rate of inflation also rose 0.2% last month. The 12-month rate of core inflation was unchanged at 1.8% for the third month in a row. Inflation-adjusted US hourly wages were flat in February. They've risen just 0.4% in the past year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 171.58 points or 0.68 percent to 25,007.03, Nasdaq dropped 77.313 points or 1.02 percent to 7,511.01, while the S&P 500 was down by 17.71 points or 0.64 percent to 2765.31.


Crude oil futures edged lower on Tuesday amid expectations that U.S. oil inventories rose for a third week in a row. U.S. crude production from major shale formations is expected to rise by 131,000 bpd in April from the previous month to an all-time high 6.95 million barrels per day (bpd). American oil production has soared past 10 million bpd in late 2017, overtaking output by top exporter Saudi Arabia. U.S. output is expected to rise above 11 million bpd by late 2018, taking the top spot from Russia. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is scheduled to release a separate report on producer prices in the month of February. Producer prices are expected to inch up by 0.1 percent, while core producer prices are expected to rise by 0.2 percent. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery declined 65 cents or 1.1 percent at $60.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude dropped by 39 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $64.56 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Extending gains for the second straight day, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Tuesday, due to selling of greenback by banks and importers. Market participants got some comfort with data indicating that India's industrial output surged to 7.5% in the month of January 2018, as compared to 3.5% in the same month of the previous year and 7.1% in December 2017, while the retail inflation cooled down to a 4-month low of 4.44% in the month of February 2018, as compared to 5.07% in January. Traders also took some support with Minister of state for commerce and industry C.R. Chaudhary's statement that the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India has reached to $208.99 billion during April 2014 to December 2017 period. Though, dollar's strength against other currencies overseas limited further appreciation of Indian currency. On the global front, dollar was moving higher against rivals on Tuesday, as investors watched out for a potentially market-moving update on US consumer prices. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.89, 15 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.04 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, in equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5339.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 3925.93 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 955.60 crore with gross sales of Rs 2406.90 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.96 crore against no selling.


The US markets closed lower on Tuesday amid renewed geo-political concerns after President Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Traders largely shrugged off a report from the Labor Department showing a modest increase in consumer prices in the month of February. Asian markets were trading in red terrain on Wednesday, following the sacking of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and amid talk of potential U.S. tariffs against China. Indian equity markets swung between gains and losses before closing largely unchanged on Tuesday as traders opted to book some profits following the previous session's sharp rally. Today, the start of the session is likely to be on negative side on weak global cues. Traders will also remain concern on report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to reduce key policy rates in 2018 despite a dip in retail inflation in February. Risks like the higher minimum support prices (MSPs) for food grains promised in the budget, according to them, can push up the inflation in the next fiscal year. Meanwhile, the Centre has released Rs 28,398 crore as GST compensation to states for July-December, with Karnataka getting a major pie. The government has lowered the indirect tax revenue collection forecast in the revised estimates by Rs 51,856 crore to Rs 8.75 lakh crore in the current fiscal. As per the Budget estimates, over Rs 9.26 lakh crore was to be collected from indirect taxes. Traders will get some support with report that revival in rural demand, increased infrastructure spending is likely to drive India's growth in current year, even as increasing debt and trade protectionism could pose a challenge. There will be buzz in textile related stocks on report that the Textiles Ministry should impress upon the Finance Ministry to reconsider the overall GST structure for textiles sector and impose higher anti-dumping duty to protect the domestic industry.

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  • Lupin has launched its Tydemy Tablets in United States having received an approval from the USFDA earlier. 
  • Power Grid has entered into a Term Loan facility agreement for Rs 5,000 crore with SBI on March 12, 2018. 
  • ACC and Ambuja Cements have sought approval from their shareholders to enter into master supply agreement. 
  • NTPC has commissioned 3rd unit of 800 MW of Kudgi Super Thermal Power Station on March 12, 2018.
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