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NSE Intra-day chart (13 January 2016)
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Market Commentary 14 January 2016
Weak start on cards tailing feeble global cues

 

A session after displaying a distressing performance, Indian benchmark indices managed to pull through a scintillating performance by rallying over half a percent on Wednesday. Sentiments got a boost with Paris-based think tank OECD stating that India is witnessing firming economic growth while most of the developed economies are seeing mixed trends. The assessment based on Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) stated that India's CLI inched up to 100.4 in November from 100.2 in October. Some support also came with Moody's Investors Service expects India to remain among the world's fastest growing major economies in 2016, but believes market trends this year will depend on whether inflation remains under control and corporate profits revive. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, shut shop after surging over half a percent and regained the crucial 7,550 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex accumulated over one hundred and fifty points to close a tad above the psychological 24,850 mark. Investors were cheered by gains on Wall Street that snapped a losing streak, including an eight-day slump for the Nasdaq composite. However, marketmen were pessimistic for most part of the session as India's consumer inflation probably edged up for the fifth straight month in December, driven by higher food prices, complicating the central bank's task of steering monetary policy at a time of international deflation. Also, Industrial production (IIP) contracted by 3.2 per cent in November -- the lowest level in over four years -- due to poor performance of manufacturing sector and a sharp decline in capital goods output. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmarks got off to a positive start in the morning trade as investors were largely influenced by the supportive leads from Asian markets. However, the indices slipped into the negative territory and even went on to test important psychological 24,400 (Sensex) and 7,450 (Nifty) levels. The key gauges got solid support around those intraday low levels as they convalesced from thereon. The bourses further capitalized on the late momentum and spurted in afternoon trades on the back of broad based bottom fishing in undervalued stocks. But, a mild profit booking in dying moments of trade ensured that the key indices shut shops off the intraday highs. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 172.08 points or 0.70% to 24854.11, while the CNX Nifty ended up by 52.10 points or 0.69% to 7,562.40.

 

The US markets were back to their declining path and plunged on Wednesday, with the major averages slumping to their worst closing levels in well over three months. In the early deals bourses benefited from strength in the overseas markets and a significant pullback by the price of crude oil, but the buying interest waned soon with traders reluctant to buy stocks, as concerns about the global economy strengthened. Nervousness about fourth-quarter earnings added to the bearish tone. Traders overlooked Federal Reserve release of its Beige Book, which said that twelve Fed districts indicated that economic activity has expanded in nine of the districts since the previous Beige Book. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 364.81 points or 2.21 percent to 16,151.41, the Nasdaq plunged 159.85 points or 3.41 percent to 4,526.06 and the S&P 500 slid 48.40 points or 2.5 percent to 1,890.28.

 

Crude oil futures made a flat closing after a choppy session on Wednesday. Prices that moved higher in early deals were impacted by Energy Information Administrations' (EIA) weekly oil report that suggested crude oil production has not waned as much as expected. Crude oil inventories in the US rose only 234,000 barrels last week, but there were builds of 8.4 million barrels in gasoline and over 6 million in distillates. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery was down $0.04 or 0.15 percent to close at $30.40 a barrel after trading in a range of $30.11 and $31.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for February delivery declined by $0.75 or 2.38 percent to $30.20 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee paring most of its gains ended marginally stronger against dollar on Wednesday on fresh selling of American currency by banks and exporters. The domestic currency was also supported by the gains in equity markets, which despite some choppiness managed a positive close. However, weak economic data and dollar's strength against other currencies overseas limited the gains in the domestic currency. On the global front, dollar rose against the yen and the euro on Wednesday as the yuan steadied and better than expected Chinese trade data helped reduce some of the pessimism towards the world's second largest economy. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.85, 2 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.87 on Tuesday. The currency touched a high and low of 66.92 and 66.72 respectively.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3116.43 crore against gross selling of Rs 3514.32 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1468.65 crore with gross sales of Rs 1346.74 crore.     

 

The US markets resuming the sell-off, plunged again in last session, as investors grew anxious about weak energy prices, US corporate earnings and the global economy. The Asian markets have made a weak start taking cue from steep losses on Wall Street overnight. Japanese market has slumped as the country's core machinery orders fell 14.4 percent in November from the previous month, down for the first time in three months. Traders in the region continue to keep an eye on China's yuan. The Indian markets showed some bounce back and ended with decent gains in last session, though trade remained choppy but sentiments were supported by better-than-expected China trade data. Today, the start is likely to be somber, tailing weak global cues. Traders will also be cautious with global ratings agency Moody's statement that lower rate of inflation and a sharp decline in prices of commodities like crude oil and steel would lead to accelerated growth only if corporate and bank balance sheets are repaired and the private sector remains internationally competitive. It said that declining inflation and lower commodities prices have placed Indian economy in a stronger position relative to similarly rated emerging economies and have also reiterated its view that India will remain one of the fastest growing large economies in 2016. Traders may get some support with the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the economy is moving in the right direction and the pace of growth will gather momentum in the coming quarters on the back on-going structural reforms. There will be some buzz in consumer durables and auto stocks, as the government has decided to set up a high-powered panel headed by Cabinet Secretary P K Sinha to process the recommendations of the 7th Pay Commission.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7562.40

7461.82

7626.97

BSE Sensex

24854.11

24509.02

25077.87

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

237.88

200.90

195.80

204.20

Vedanta

178.5

80.95

77.78

84.98

ICICI Bank

165.6

239.50

232.77

244.57

Reliance Industries

164.13

1076.85

1052.78

1095.33

Axis Bank

158.74

406.70

395.62

414.62

  • Tata Consultancy Services has registered a rise of 4.30% in its net profit at Rs 5956.72 crore in Q3FY15 as compared to Rs 5711.15 crore in the corresponding quarter previous year.
  • Tata Motors has introduced a unique '7 Sense' experience for the recently unveiled, Zica, its next big launch.
  • State Bank of India will partner with SIDBI and National Stock Exchange to set up a trade receivables platform to facilitate better credit flow to small and medium enterprises.
  • Tata Power company has raised Rs 500 crore by issuing unsecured redeemable, taxable non-convertible debentures on private placement basis.
  • IndusInd Bank has partnered with PayU India to redefine the digital experience for Indian customers by bringing the full suite of banking products online as well as payment innovations.
News Analysis