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NSE Intra-day chart (12 November 2018)
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Market Commentary 13 November 2018
Indian equity markets to make negative start amid global selloff


The Indian benchmarks witnessed steep fall on Monday, with losses of around a percent, ahead of the release of key macroeconomic data. The key indices made a firm start of the week, supported by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data report that bank credit rose by a healthy 14.41% during the fortnight to October 26, despite the overall increase in lending rates, for first time in over five years. The street was in positive mood, as over Rs 11,900 crore has been released to the states by the Centre from Goods and Services Tax (GST) compensation fund during August-September, after regular and ad-hoc settlement of Integrated GST (IGST) fund. Some support also came with a private report indicating that foreign investors have pumped in nearly Rs 4,800 crore into the Indian capital markets in the last five trading sessions, after pulling out hefty funds in October, amid cooling global crude oil prices and rising rupee. Meanwhile, terming GST as a monumental reform, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the new tax reform had only a transient impact on growth and that too for two quarters. However, markets soon turned volatile and traded in red for the most part of the session, impacted by Federation of Indian Export Organisation (FIEO) President Ganesh Gupta's statement that exports of over half of the 30 sectors closely monitored by the Commerce Ministry were in the negative zone in September. Overall exports in September were contracted by 2.15% to $27.95 billion mainly due to the base impact. Some concerns also came among the local traders with former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that demonetisation and the GST are the two major headwinds that held back India's economic growth last year, asserting that the current 7% growth rate is not enough to meet the country's needs. Adding some anxiety, the RBI cancelled the certificate of registrations of as many as 31 non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) on November 09 for unspecified reasons. Domestic sentiments also got hit with a private report stating that corporate earnings have failed to keep pace with the trajectory of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) over the past 10 years. The combined net profit of listed companies has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1%, against 12.9% growth in India's GDP at nominal prices during the period. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 345.56 points or 0.98% to 34,812.99, while the CNX Nifty was down by 103.00 points or 0.97% to 10,482.20.


Extending losses for second straight session, the US markets ended significantly lower on Monday, with all the major indices losing around two percent each, after a big decline in Apple shares, a rise in the US dollar and lingering worries about global trade weighed on investor sentiment. Concerns about the outlook for global economic growth and a continued increase in interest rates continued to dampened sentiments. Apple shares tanked by 5 percent after Lumentum Holdings, which makes technology for the iPhone's face-recognition function, cut its outlook for fiscal second quarter 2019. Lumentum CEO Alan Lowe said one of its largest customers asked the company to materially reduce shipments for its products. Moreover, a strong dollar also pressured equities as investors worried about what it would do to overseas sales for multinationals. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump claimed the prospect of Presidential Harassment by the Dems is causing the Stock Market big headaches. Light trading activity may have exaggerated the downward move, however, as government offices, the bond markets, and most banks were closed in observance of Veterans Day. Besides, a lack of major US economic data also kept some traders on the sidelines ahead of the release of reports on consumer price inflation, retail sales, and industrial production in the coming days. A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on November 14 is also likely to attract attention, as traders look for additional clues about the outlook for interest rates. Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 602.12 points or 2.32 percent to 25,387.18, Nasdaq fell 206.03 points or 2.78 percent to 7,200.87 and S&P 500 was down by 54.79 points or 1.97 percent to 2,726.22.


Crude oil futures wiped out early gains and ended lower for eleventh straight session on Monday, with US benchmark settling below $60 a barrel mark. Crude oil prices were higher on reports that Saudi Arabia and other major producers are considering reductions in crude output heading into 2019. However, traders turned cautious after President Donald Trump said he hopes Saudi Arabia and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) won't cut oil production and said oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Benchmark crude oil futures for December declined 26 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $59.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude fell 6 cents or less than 0.1 percent to settle at $70.12 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Snapping two days of winning streak, Indian rupee ended considerably weaker against the American currency on Monday, owing to increased demand for the American currency from importers amid increasing global crude oil prices. Sentiments turned pessimistic with former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that demonetisation and the GST are the two major headwinds that held back India's economic growth last year, asserting that the current 7% growth rate is not enough to meet the country's needs. Cautiousness also prevailed ahead of key economic data -- September IIP and October CPI, which will be announced after the market hours. Besides, the dollar's strength against some currencies overseas and heavy losses in domestic equity markets also weighed on the domestic unit. On the global front, dollar surged to nearly 17-month highs on Monday against a basket of major currencies as investors sought out the liquid and high-yielding currency against a backdrop of global growth worry and rising political risk in Italy and Britain. Finally, the rupee ended at 72.89, 39 paise weaker from its previous close of 72.50 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3078.09 crore against gross selling of Rs 5781.41 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 569.47 crore with gross sales of Rs 929.54 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross selling was of Rs 0.14 crore against no buying.


The US markets ended lower on Monday amid concerns about the outlook for global economic growth and including oil-price swings. President Donald Trump claimed that the prospect of Presidential Harassment by the Dems is causing the Stock Market big headaches. Asian markets were trading lower on Tuesday. Japanese stocks are down more than 3% as a sell-off in US technology shares overnight and growing concerns over cooling global economic growth spilled over into Asia. Domestic markets ended with losses of around one percent in a highly volatile session on Monday. The losses came in amid weakness in other Asian markets and rise in global oil prices. Today, the start of the session is likely to be on negative side tailing the weakness in other global markets. There will be some cautiousness too, with industrial output growth slipping to 4.5 percent in September 2018 as compared to 4.7 percent in the same month last year as the festival season started late this year compared to 2017. Growth faltered as the output of capital goods and mining expanded at a slower pace in September than in the previous month. However, markets will be getting encouragement latter part of trade in the day with the consumer price index (CPI) inflation easing to 3.31 percent in the month of October 2018 as compared to 3.58 percent in October 2017 on low food prices. The retail inflation number is the lowest since September 2017 when it touched 3.28 percent. Also, the prices of vegetables fell by 8.06 percent in the month of October in comparison to a 4.15 percent contraction in September. Meanwhile, the revenue department has decided to extend the facility of uploading digitally signed documents for all types of exports under Indian Customs EDI System (ICES) with a view to improve ease of doing business and promote paperless processing. The Aviation sector stocks will be in action as India's domestic air passenger traffic grew in double digits for the 49th consecutive month in September. India's domestic revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) in the month under review rose by 19.8 percent compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. There will be some buzz in the agriculture stocks with report that India has emerged as a major seed hub in Asia as 18 companies out of 24 leading firms evaluated, have invested in breeding and production activities in the country. Besides, there will be lots of important earnings announcements to keep the markets buzzing.


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  •  Cipla has received final approval for its ANDA for Valganciclovir Tablets 450mg from the USFDA. 
  • Tech Mahindra is looking at upcoming 5G rollouts in global markets as a big opportunity. 
  • TCS has partnered with ENGIE Laborelec, a leading utilities research center, and part of the ENGIE Group. 
  • Tata Steel has flagged off the first-ever Art Residency Programme in Jamshedpur under the aegis of the Centre for Excellence Jamshedpur.
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