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NSE Intra-day chart (12 April 2016)
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Market Commentary 13 April 2016
Markets to see a good gap-up start on jubilant global cues


Indian markets extended their jubilation and rallied in Tuesday's trading session, ahead of the release of February industrial production and March consumer price index (CPI) data later in the day. It was mainly the monsoon talk that kept the markets in high spirit through the day. Ahead of India Meteorological Department (IMD), issue its forecast for this year's monsoon rains, private weather forecaster Skymet predicted above average rains this year. A normal monsoon - after two straight years of drought - is likely to boost the farm sector. The government too has said that after two years of deficient rainfall, monsoon this year is expected to be normal and directed states to chalk out plans to boost crop acreage and production in Kharif season starting June. Traders also took some encouragement with India's Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Arvind Subramanian's statement that India's economy has the potential to grow between 8 to 10 per cent if the country continues its pace of reforms. He further stated that achieving this growth rate is dependent on a number of factors including the continuation and pace of reforms and global environment that promotes exports. On the global front, after the subdued performance of the US markets, the Asian markets made mostly a positive closing, the European stocks made mostly a positive start and held near a one-week high. Back home, local markets after a choppy start firmed up in the very early morning of trade on reports that foreign investors are buying heavily into emerging market and the investor community has infused Rs 3,469 crore in domestic equities so far this month. In early trade markets were also encouraged by a World bank report that India's GDP will grow at 7.7% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2016, not only this driven by India's GDP growth, the World Bank forecasted gradual acceleration in South Asia's economic growth from 7.1 percent in 2016 to 7.3 percent in 2017.The local traders kept accumulating value stocks and markets gained momentum, however sudden bout of profit taking appeared in metal and select IT stocks in the late noon session that took the major bourses almost in the red territory, but the selling was reciprocated by good buying that once again powered the markets to highs of the day. Finally, the BSE Sensex ended at 25145.59, up by 123.43 points or 0.49%, while the Nifty ended at 7708.95, up by 37.55 points or 0.49%.


The US market closed higher on Tuesday, as oil settled higher for a third day in a row and at its highest price of the year. After a wobbly start to the day, oil futures spiked on hopes that key oil producers will agree on an output freeze at their meeting this Sunday. On the economy front, the federal government's budget deficit rose sharply in March, pushing the deficit for the first six months of this budget year above the same period a year ago. The deficit for March totaled $108.0 billion. That marks the biggest March deficit in four years and was more than double the imbalance in March 2015. The large jump from a year ago reflected calendar shifts, which had made the 2015 deficit look smaller because $36 billion in benefit payments were shifted into February. Through the first six months of this budget year that began on October 1, the deficit totals $461.0 billion. That represents an increase of 4.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The Congressional Budget is forecasting a higher deficit for the full year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 164.84 points or 0.94 percent to 17,721.25, Nasdaq was up by 38.69 points or 0.80 percent to 4,872.09 while, S&P 500 gained 19.73 points or 0.97 percent to 2,061.72.


Crude oil futures surged to their fresh highs of the year on Tuesday, making it the third straight session of sharp gains, amid indications that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a consensus on a comprehensive production freeze ahead of a highly-anticipated meeting over the weekend in Qatar. There was report that Russia and Saudi Arabia reached an accord on a deal in which both major producers will cap their daily output at near-record levels. It also said that Saudi Arabia's decision will also not be dependent on any resolution by Iran to take part in the negotiations. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery surged by $1.74 or 4.30 percent to $42.10 a barrel after trading in a range of $40.09 and $42.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery closed at $44.62, up $1.79 or 4.18 percent on the ICE.


Indian rupee recouped its early losses and ended marginally higher against dollar on Tuesday taking its winning streak to third trading session, on account of selling of the greenback by banks and exporters. The domestic currency was weak in the beginning but smart rally in local equity market supported the rupee. Some support also came with India's Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian's statement that India's economy has the potential to grow between 8 to 10 per cent if the country continues its pace of reforms. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of IIP and inflation data scheduled to be released later in the day. On the global front, US dollar declined against most major counterparts on Tuesday, as traders focus on a slew of US economic reports due this week for more clarity about monetary policy. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.42, 1 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.43 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4919.98 crore against gross selling of Rs 4764.32 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2569.47 crore with gross sales of Rs 2190.96 crore.          


The US markets after showing lack of direction in early trade surged in last session, offsetting the pullback seen in the previous session, mainly due to a substantial increase by the price of crude oil, which reached its highest closing level since later November. The Asian markets have made an all green start with some of the indices surging by over two percent in early deals, fueled by surge in oil and report of pickup in Chinese trade activity, the country's overseas sales in March increased 19 percent from a year earlier in yuan term. Japanese market strengthened further on the weakness in yen. The Indian markets added gains in last session on hopes of good monsoon, which could indicate demand revival in various sectors. Today, the start is likely to be good and markets will continue to move higher, taking cues from the global peers and on some good macro data announced after the market hours last day. Traders will however be getting major boost with the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast of above-normal rainfall this monsoon, with rainfall activity likely to be 106 per cent of long period average (LPA). On the macro front, Industrial production grew at 2 percent in February after remaining negative for three months and retail inflation dropped to a 6-month low of 4.83 percent in March. The uptick in industrial output was mainly on account of improvement in mining, power and consumer durables. Marketmen will also be getting some support with the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook report, which despite cutting global growth forecast has said that India's growth is projected to notch up to 7.5 percent in 2016-17, overtaking China's GDP by more than 1 percent, mainly driven by private consumption and increased industrial activity. The steel sector will be buzzing today, as the government has started an investigation into alleged dumping of a certain variety of steel products by six countries, including China, Japan and Korea, following a complaint by major producers.


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Coal India






  • Bharat Petroleum Corporation has received an approval to acquire PIL's 26% equity in Petronet CCK at a total cost of Rs 78.60 crore.
  • Adani Ports has raised Rs 500 crore by allotment of 5,000 Rated, Listed, Secured, Taxable, Redeemable, NCDs of the face value of Rs 10 lakh each on private placement basis.
  • Bharti Airtel's subsidiary Airtel M Commerce Services has been granted payments bank license from Reserve Bank of India on April 11, 2016.
  • NTPC has supplied 100 MW of un-requisitioned surplus from its Dadri Stage-1 plant to Gujarat Urja Vitran Nigam.
  • Coal India has cut prices of top grades of coal by up to 40% on the back of more than adequate coal production as well as about 58 million tonnes of stock pile.
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