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NSE Intra-day chart (12 March 2018)
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Market Commentary 13 March 2018
Markets likely to make optimistic start on good IIP, CPI numbers


Monday turned-out to be a jubilant day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks with frontline gauges ending the session with gains of around two percentage points, recapturing their crucial 10,400 (Nifty) and 33,900 (Sensex) levels. After making a gap-up opening, markets gained strength-to-strength and not even an iota of profit booking witnessed on Dalal Street as traders continued to build hefty positions across the board. Sentiments remained up-beat throughout the session as traders took some encouragement with IMF's statement that the Indian economy now seems to be on its way of recovering from disruptions caused by demonetisation and roll-out of goods and services tax. At the same time, the IMF has underscored the significance of reforms in other key sectors like education, health and improving the efficiency of banking and financial systems. Investors also took some support with industry body FICCI's report that manufacturers in the country have a positive outlook for the sector in the January-March quarter on the back of higher production. The proportion of respondents reporting higher output growth during the Q4 2017-18 has increased significantly to 55 per cent from 47 per cent in Q3. Sentiments also remained up-beat as Union commerce and industry minister Suresh Prabhu exuded confidence that India will become a $5 trillion economy in the next seven years, adding that India will be a bigger economy than China at some point of time. He also said that manufacturing sector would contribute $1 trillion, services sector $3 trillion and the rest would come from agriculture for the country to become a $5 trillion economy in the next seven years. Some support also came with a report stating that the Centre is expecting to get around Rs 8,044 crore on account of dividend from Coal India as the miner's board approved payment of interim dividend for the financial year 2017-18 at a rate of Rs 16.50 per share. The miner's total payout on account of this would be to the tune Rs 10,242 crore. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 610.80 points or 1.83% to 33,917.94, while the CNX Nifty was up by 194.55 points or 1.90% to 10,421.40.


The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, weighed down by the industrials sector, while the Nasdaq closed at a record, in part due to optimism over Friday's jobs data, which showed solid economic growth without triggering wage pressure. With nothing major on the economic-data calendar, the market's focus will likely remain on last week's so-called Goldilocks jobs numbers. Separately, US inflation expectations edged higher last month, with one measure hitting its highest level in a year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey that adds to signs of price pressures. The survey of consumer expectations, which the Fed considers among other data as it continues to gradually raise interest rates, showed median one-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.83 percent from 2.71 percent in January, the highest reading since February 2017. The three-year measure was 2.88 percent in February, up from 2.79 the month before. On the economy front, the US government recorded a monthly budget deficit of $215 billion in February, up 12% from the same month last year due to lower revenue and higher spending. For the first five months of the fiscal year, the government's deficit is $391 billion, $40 billion more than the shortfall during the same period last year. Revenues were down 9% in February from same month last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 157.13 points or 0.62 percent to 25,178.61, the S&P 500 was down by 3.55 points or 0.13 percent to 2783.02, while Nasdaq gained 27.515 points or 0.36 percent to 7,588.32.


Crude oil futures edged lower on Monday ahead of closely watched U.S. inflation data that may set the stage for interest rate hikes. The U.S. consumer price and producer price readings come out this week. If inflation picks up analysts say the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates four times this year. A stronger dollar would likely dent oil prices. The decline was also because of report that Crude production from seven major U.S. shale plays is expected to see a climb of 131,000 barrels a day in April to 6.954 million barrels a day. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery declined 68 cents or 1.1 percent at $61.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude dropped by 54 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $64.95 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee trimmed some of its early gains but still ended higher against the American currency on Monday, on continued dollar selling by banks and exporters. Sentiments got support after Union commerce and industry minister Suresh Prabhu exuded confidence that India will become a $5 trillion economy in the next seven years, adding that India will be a bigger economy than China at some point of time. He also said that manufacturing sector would contribute $1 trillion, services sector $3 trillion and the rest would come from agriculture for the country to become a $5 trillion economy. Besides, a spectacular performance on domestic equities too supported the rupee. However, gains were capped as anxiety spread among the traders ahead of key economic data - industrial production (IIP) numbers for January and retail inflation for February - to be released later in the day. On the global front, US dollar dropped against yen on Monday, after the US jobs report dampened expectations of aggressive interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.04, 12 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.16 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, in equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4598.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 3990.76 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 770.24 crore with gross sales of Rs 3163.55 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.92 crore against no selling.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Monday as traders remained on sidelines ahead of data related to consumer and producer price inflation, retail sales, regional manufacturing activity, housing starts and industrial production, to be released later during the week. Asian markets trading mostly in red on Tuesday, as Washington's policies hit regional steel producers. Indian equity markets edged higher on Monday, as geopolitical tensions eased somewhat, trade-war worries subsided and a robust U.S. jobs report stoked optimism about global growth. Today, the start of the session is likely to be in green and traders will be reacting positively to the IIP numbers, as strong manufacturing growth and a rebound in the consumer durables sector lifted India's total factory production to 7.5 percent in January from 7.1 percent in December. As per the street expectation it was likely to come at 6.6%. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2017-18 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 4.1%. Traders will also get some encouragement with report that Inflation as measured by the CPI slowed to 4.44% in February from 5.07% in January, mostly due to easing food and fuel prices. Inflation in the food and beverages segment slowed to 3.38% in February from 4.58% in the previous month. Some support will also come with report that foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased steadily in the country with total capital inflows reaching $208.99 billion during April 2014 to December 2017 period. The main sectors that received maximum foreign inflows include services, computer software and hardware, telecommunications, construction, trading and automobile. There will be buzz in defence related stocks after Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that defence public sector undertakings (PSUs) and ordnance factories in the country have a lot of potential but they need to be revitalised and made more dynamic.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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Nifty Top volumes




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Indian Oil Corporation





Yes Bank





Tata steel






  • Tata Motors Group global wholesales in February 2018, including Jaguar Land Rover, were at 121,252 units, higher by 18%, over February 2017. 
  • Power Grid has been declared as the successful bidder under Tariff based competitive bidding to establish transmission system. 
  • Bharti Airtel has received an approval for issuance of NCDs of up to Rs 10,000 crore on a private placement basis. 
  • L&T's construction arm -- L&T Construction -- has bagged orders worth Rs 2,597 crore across various business segments.
News Analysis