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NSE Intra-day chart (11 October 2018)
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Market Commentary 12 October 2018
Markets likely to make positive start


Bears back in the action on Thursday, as Indian equity indices registered sharp losses of over 2% to settle the session in red territory. After a gap-down opening, the markets remained under pressure, impacted by a private report stating that private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) investments in India declined 23% to $6.7 billion in the third quarter of this year as investors adopted a cautious approach. On a year to date basis however, PE/VC investments in India are higher by 17.4% and the investment tally also looks set to surpass the previous year high driven by some large deals in the pipeline, provided there is no major macro setback. Domestic sentiments also got hit with Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ganesh Gupta's statement that the delay in Goods and Services Tax (GST) refunds is mainly impacting small exporters who provide jobs in labour-intensive sectors. FIEO President made an uproar about pending refunds of Rs 22,000 crore, noting that this is creating liquidity problem for exporters and impacting overseas shipments. Markets pain deepen, after United Nations' latest report noted that India lost $80 billion from natural disasters in 20 years and also ranks fourth among the top 10 countries that reported economic losses due to disasters. Adding more anxiety among the investors, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned countries of the perils of a trade or a currency war, saying they could be detrimental to global growth and hurt innocent bystanders. The market participants paid no heed towards World Bank Official's statement that an orderly depreciation of the rupee would increase competitiveness and relieve some of the pressures in capital market. The street even overlooked reports that the government will develop a Skill Index to encourage competition between districts and improve their skill development and training performance. Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged 759.74 points or 2.19% to 34,001.15, while the CNX Nifty was down by 225.45 points or 2.16% to 10,234.65.


The US markets extended their losses for second straight day to end the session in red on Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing over 500 points, as traders remained concerned about the outlook for the interest rates as well as the escalating trade war between the US and China. Investors have pinned the selloff on a variety of factors, including a sudden rise in long-dated interest rates since late September. A bond-market selloff saw the yield on the 10-year US. Higher yields raise borrowing costs for corporations. They also divert investment away from stocks. On the economic front, the Labor Department said its consumer price index inched up by 0.1% in September after rising by 0.2% in August. Street had expected prices to increase by another 0.2%. Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices also crept up by 0.1% in September, matching the uptick seen in the previous month. Core prices had been expected to rise by 0.2%. The report also said the annual rate of consumer price growth slowed to 2.3% in September from 2.7% in August, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth was unchanged at 2.2%. A separate report released by the Labor Department unexpectedly showed a modest increase in first-time claims for US unemployment benefits in the week ended October 6. The report said initial jobless claims rose to 214,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 207,000. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 545.91 points or 2.13 percent to 25,052.83, Nasdaq decreased 92.99 points or 1.25 percent to 7,329.06 and S&P 500 was down by 57.31 points or 2.06 percent to 2,728.37.


Extending losses for second straight session, crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday after a data showed US crude stockpiles have risen for a third straight week. Prices also weighted by a global equity rout that raised concerns about the economy and the outlook for energy demand. The US Energy Information Administration's data showed that crude supplies in US to have climbed by 6 million barrels for the week ended October 5. That was much larger than what traders had expected. Benchmark crude oil futures for November declined $2.20 or 3 percent to settle at $70.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude was down by $2.83 or 3.4 percent to settle at $80.26 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchanged.


Recovering from its all-time low, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Thursday, on fresh selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Investors' sentiments turned positive with International Monetary Fund (IMF) report that India's debt is lower than the best or emerging market economies in the world, India's debt was substantially less than the global debt as percentage of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Besides, the dollar losing muscle against other currencies overseas helped the domestic currency, rebound. However, gains remained capped as anxiety remained among the traders ahead of key economic data for August IIP and September CPI. On the global front, dollar weakened on Thursday following an overnight drop in US Treasury yields, though moves in foreign exchange markets were far more contained than the global rout in stocks. Finally, the rupee ended at 74.12, 9 paise stronger from its previous close of 74.21 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5939.01 crore against gross selling of Rs 7021.59 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 96.11 crore with gross sales of Rs 2090.04 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.61 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.04 crore.


The US markets extended losses to end lower on Thursday, as investors continued to fret over rising bond yields and the prospect of higher interest rates. Asian markets were trading mostly in green on Friday, even though they opened in red as traders took a breather after a global rout sparked by fears over higher US interest rates. After rallying over a percent gain in previous session, Indian markets witnessed bloodbath on Thursday with both Sensex and Nifty falling over 2% each, weighed down by sell-off across global markets spooked by escalating global trade tensions and warnings of a growth slowdown. Today, the markets are likely to make positive start amid falling oil prices. Marketmen will be eyeing the macro economic data of industrial production and consumer price inflation to be released after the market hours. Traders will be getting encouragement with Ficci's latest quarterly survey showing that India's manufacturing sector output is expected to register robust growth in the July-September quarter on account of higher production even as the hiring outlook for the sector remains subdued. The survey also revealed that exports to rise in the second quarter. Traders will also be reacting to the Revenue Department of the Finance Ministry's statement that the government yet again increased import duty on several electronic items and telecom equipment to rein in current account deficit (CAD) and stabilise the rupee. Besides, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the number of direct taxpayers is expected to double to 7.6 crore during the five-year term of the present government on account of various initiatives like rationalisation of tax structure, lowering of rates and anti-black money measures. However, there may be some cautiousness with Reserve Bank of India's data showing that the Central Bank remained net seller of the US dollar in August, as it sold $2.323 billion of the greenback in the spot market. There will be some reaction in oil marketing companies (OMCs) with report that allaying concerns about the return of fuel subsidy regime, Finance Ministry said the government asking oil PSUs to subsidise petrol and diesel prices by Re 1 per litre was a one-time thing and it does not intend to ask them to do it again.


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  • NTPC has participated for 160 MW Solar capacities in Uttar Pradesh and has won the entire capacity bid by it. 
  • ONGC is planning to buy 27 drilling rigs, in a bid to replace nearly half of its ageing onland rigs. 
  • IOC will invest Rs 5,463 crore in setting up city gas distribution network for retailing CNG to automobiles and piped cooking gas to households in seven districts.
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