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NSE Intra-day chart (11 May 2017)
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Market Commentary 12 May 2017
Markets to remain cautious with a flat start

It turned out to be a session of moderate gains for the Indian stock markets, which came off the highest point of the day in dying hours of trade as investors booked profits in recent outperformers such as Bharti Airtel and Hindustan Unilever, while negative opening in European markets also capped gains. However, the benchmarks managed to settle at record closing highs for the second straight session as local sentiments continued to show signs of improvement amid optimism over Indian Meteorological Department's prediction of a 'normal' monsoon this calendar. IMD said that the prospects of the monsoon have brightened due to reduced chances of El-Nino. With results of several front line stocks due over the course of the next few sessions and the data on industrial output and consumer price inflation due on Friday, the mood was slightly cautious. Furthermore, with the indices and various blue chip stocks hovering around all-time highs, market participants are looking for some direction to build up significant positions. Investors remained cautious with the RBI's data suggesting that new financial year began on a sour note for bank credit growth, which slipped to 4.32% in the fortnight to April 28, much lower than the 63-year low level of 5.08% in FY17. However, sentiments got some support with the report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is setting up a task force under the chairmanship of the Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog Dr Arvind Panagriya, with an aim to create policies on employment based on credible data. The Prime Minister has directed that this task be expedited so that policies on employment can be formulated with a proper appreciation of impacts, based on credible data. Meanwhile, Auto stocks surged on expectations of lower interest rates after a better monsoon forecast eased inflation fears in a country that depends heavily on rains to irrigate its farmlands. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 2.81 points or 0.01% to 30250.98, while the CNX Nifty was up by 15.10 points or 0.16% to 9,422.40.


The US markets despite showing a significant recovery closed in red on Thursday. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day but remained stuck in negative territory. The markets were down in the early deals on some weak earnings and overlooked the Labor Department report showing a bigger than expected increase in producer prices in the month of April. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.5 percent in April after edging down by 0.1 percent in March. With the monthly increase, the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 2.5 percent in April from 2.3 percent in March. Prices rose at the fastest rate since February of 2012. A separate report from the Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly edged lower in the week ended May 6th. The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 236,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 238,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 23.69 points or 0.11 percent to 20,919.42, while the S&P 500 was up by 5.19 points or 0.22 percent to 2,394.44 and the Nasdaq ended lower by 13.18 points or 0.22 percent to 6,115.96.


Crude oil futures extended their gains for the second straight day, following surprisingly big drop in US crude stockpiles. Though, traders overlooked latest report from OPEC, which boosted estimates for growth in non-OPEC supplies by 64 percent as US shale production rises at a furious pace and another report that output from top exporter Saudi Arabia inched up last month. OPEC and non-member oil producers are considering extending a global supply cut for nine months or more to give the market more time to rebalance Now traders will keep a close eye on U.S. rig count figures from Baker Hughes. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery ended higher by $0.46 or 1 percent to $47.79 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for July delivery ended up by $0.48 to end at $50.70 on the ICE.


Indian rupee ended considerably stronger against dollar on Thursday, on increased selling of the American currency by exporters and banks. The domestic currency was in the positive terrain from the very beginning supported by the positive gains in the local equity market. Sentiments remained up-beat with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting a ‘normal' monsoon this calendar and expecting 100 percent rainfall instead of 96 percent as predicted earlier. It has said that recent development on El-Nino indicates that the monsoon could be normal this year and it could reach 100 percent of the long period average. On the global front, pound dropped against dollar as investors reacted to news of falling industrial production in Britain and a widening of the country's trade deficit. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.37, 25 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.62 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9717.64 crore against gross selling of Rs 8352.72 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 678.91 crore with gross sales of Rs 562.70 crore.


The US markets reacting to some weak earnings made another soft closing in the last session, with traders fearing that consumers are not spending enough to drive strong economic growth. The Asian markets have made a mixed start and some of the indices are in red on concern about the appetite of U.S. consumers to keep spending. The Japanese market too was in red as the yen rose against the dollar. The Indian markets lost their way completely in the final hours and made just a flat close, positive Asian cues and some solid earnings results too failed to support the markets. Today, the start of the day is likely to be cautious on mixed global cues and traders will be eyeing government release of a new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) later in the day, in a bid to map economic activity more accurately. Traders will be getting some support with SBI Research's Ecowrap report, which has said that the easing of crude oil prices will have positive effect not only on inflation but also on GDP growth. It has said that average crude oil prices will be around $ 45 for the next half of this year and this, coupled with positive macro fundamentals, could translate into better growth numbers for the country. Meanwhile, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian slamming global credit rating agencies for not upgrading India despite clear improvement in its economic fundamentals has said that they are following 'inconsistent' standards while rating India and China. There will be some buzz in the textile stocks, as the Finance Ministry has extended by one year the validity of existing anti-dumping duty on Partially Oriented Yarn (POY) imports from China. There will be lots of important earnings announcements to keep the markets in action.


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  • Bharti Airtel will focus on cost controls and 4G data revenues and spend $2.5 billion in capex.
  • HCL Technologies has reported a jump of 27.68% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 2475.27 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2017 as compared to Rs 1938.66 crore for the corresponding quarter in the FY16.
  • TCS has set up a Business Process Service centre in Patna to create new opportunities as part of Digital India push.  
  • Hero MotoCorp has reported a fall of 13.87% in its net profit at Rs 717.75 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2017 as compared to Rs 833.29 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
News Analysis