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NSE Intra-day chart (11 April 2017)
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Market Commentary 12 April 2017
Markets to see some consolidation after last session's surge


A session after displaying a pitiful performance, Indian equity indices have managed to pull through a brilliant performance by gaining over half percent on Tuesday, thanks to the hefty buying by funds and retail investors ahead of March quarter earnings, which begin later this week. Sentiments got boost after Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that some new measures for NPAs are being contemplated and the government is making all conscious efforts to tackle bad loans. Besides, optimistic buying in blue-chip stocks ahead of industrial production (IIP) data for February and retail inflation for March tomorrow also kept markets on course. Some support also came with the report that India's oil consumption fell for the third straight month in March as the demand growth in diesel, petrol and other products came to a crawl. The oil demand fell by 0.65% in March to 17,358 thousand metric tonnes (TMT). However, gains remained capped with the report that India's inflation is seen climbing to within touching distance of the central bank's 4% medium-term target in March, driven by higher food costs. According to the report, having sunk to its lowest level for at least five years in January, consumer price inflation is expected to have risen to 3.98% last month from February's 3.65%. Furthermore, leading exporters' body EEPC India has raised a red flag against the debilitating impact of sharp rise in rupee against dollar in the last three months on exports, which may slip off from the recovery path, if the situation persists further. Since the first week of January, rupee has gained by close to six per cent, eroding significantly the exporters' margins and more importantly the competitive edge against India's trade rivals in the international markets. Meanwhile, shares of private electricity generation companies, Adani Power and Tata Power Company, came under sharp selling pressure on reports that the Supreme Court has disallowed compensatory tariff to both the companies. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 212.61 points or 0.72% to 29788.35, while the CNX Nifty was up by 55.55 points or 0.61% to 9,237.00.

 

The US markets closed lower on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious over assets perceived as risky, such as equities, on rising geopolitical tensions. Tuesday's moves come as investors focus on the latest geopolitical developments, as the US has taken a hard line on Syria at a G-7 meeting and North Korea has warned that it is ready for war should US Navy ships advance to the Korean Peninsula. On the economy front, small-business owner optimism declined in March as sales expectations and earnings came back to earth after a post-election surge. The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly sentiment gauge fell 0.6 point to 104.7. The post-election surge was the biggest in the four decades NFIB has been conducting its survey. The gauge rose again in January but then receded in February. Job openings rose and hires dipped in February as the labor market continued to grind slowly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.72 points or 0.03 percent to 20,651.30, the Nasdaq was down 14.16 points or 0.24 percent to 5,866.77, while S&P 500 dropped 3.38 points or 0.14 percent to 2,353.78.

 

Crude oil futures moved further high on Tuesday, with Nymex crude reaching its highest closing level in a month. Prices also got support with reports that Saudi Arabia supported the idea of extending OPEC-led cuts by an additional six months to the end of the year. Saudi Arabia informed OPEC officials it favoured an extension of the six-month OPEC-led deal to cut supply, which began in January this year, for an additional six months, when the group meets in May. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery gained $0.32 to $53.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended higher by $0.19 at $55.93 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee appreciated against dollar on Tuesday, on increased selling of the American currency amid continued foreign inflows. Local currency got some support with the report that India's oil consumption fell for the third straight month in March as the demand growth in diesel, petrol and other products came to a crawl. The oil demand fell by 0.65% in March to 17,358 thousand metric tonnes (TMT). Also, a strong domestic stock market coupled with dollar's weakness against the basket of other major currencies supported the uptrend. On the global front, dollar fell against yen on Tuesday, as concerns over tensions with North Korea and Syria weighed on U.S. Treasury yields and offset expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.50, 6 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.56 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3773.59 crore against gross selling of Rs 4409.38 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1473.48 crore with gross sales of Rs 786.55 crore.

 

The US markets closed marginally in red in the last session, though the major averages recovered from the early lows and were well off their worst levels of the day, but the mood reflected geopolitical concerns on the heels of President Donald Trump's decision to launch a missile strike at an airbase in Syria. The Asian markets have made a mixed start and many of the indices are in red, led by the Japanese market which is down by over a percent after the yen jumped to the highest since November, as investors avoided riskier assets amid lingering geopolitical concerns. The Indian markets outperformed the global peers and surged in last session close to a percent, despite geo-political worries. Today, the start is likely to be cautious and some consolidation can appear tailing the weak global cues. Marketmen will be eyeing the macro economic data of industrial production and consumer price inflation to be released after the market hours. Traders will however be getting some support with Niti Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya's statement that he Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime should be implemented as scheduled despite all challenges as progress will take place only after we move ahead in this regard. Meanwhile, GST-Network , the firm which is building the IT backbone of the Goods and Services Tax regime has assured stakeholders that all their data will be stored in an encrypted form and only the taxpayer and the assessing officer will have access to the information.  The export oriented stocks will remain under pressure with rise in rupee; EEPC India too has expressed apprehensions regarding the debilitating impact that the sharp rise in rupee against dollar can have on exports.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9237.00

9192.33

9262.18

BSE Sensex

29788.35

29637.78

29871.71

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Tata Power

322.25

85.45

81.02

90.02

NTPC

145.12

167.00

164.23

168.83

ICICI Bank

124.86

283.65

278.85

286.35

SBI

116.82

294.50

290.48

296.83

ITC

109.35

282.05

275.03

285.83

 
  • Tata Motors' subsidiary- TAL Manufacturing Solutions has launched TAL Brabo Robots in two variants and is priced between Rs 5 and 7 lakh. 
  • Tata Power's Industrial Energy, Kalinganagar plant, Orissa has taken a target to offset carbon generation of FY17 with an average of 40 tonnes (approximately) of CO2 per month by distributing LEDs in nearby villages under its CR programme.
  • HDFC Bank has proposed to raise funds by issuing Perpetual Debt Instruments, Tier II Capital Bonds and Senior Long Term Infrastructure Bonds up to a total amount of Rs 50,000 crore in the period of next twelve months through private placement mode.
  • ONGC has set a new record of drilling over 500 wells in 2016-17 at an expenditure of Rs 15,747 crore as the major state-owned explorer steps up efforts to boost domestic output.
News Analysis