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NSE Intra-day chart (11 April 2016)
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Market Commentary 12 April 2016
Markets to get a flat-to-positive start ahead of IIP and CPI data


Indian benchmark equity indices staged a blockbuster performance on the first day of the week by strongly rallying close to one and half percentage points in the session and re-conquering their psychological levels. Investor sentiment was buoyed by a strong trading in the European markets and higher expectations of a strong performance from Big IT companies in the forthcoming earnings season. Besides, fresh buying was also witnessed in the mid-cap and small-cap space as traders purchased the beaten down stocks at attractive valuations. Sentiments got some support with Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das' statement that a Parliamentary panel is expected to submit its report on the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code on April 29 and government would push for the passage of the bill in the second leg of the Budget session. Also, Naushad Forbes, the new President of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) said that Indian industry is ready to grant greater market access to European Union firms in areas such as automobiles, wines and spirits in return for gains in garments, automobiles, automobile components and services sector in a bid to end a deadlock on the proposed EU Free Trade Agreement. On the global front, Asian markets struggled for direction on Monday; however a sharp rebound in European stocks suggested a pent-up appetite for risk. Back home, after getting positive start, Indian benchmark indices slipped into negative territory in early session and traded near neutral line for most part of the session as investors adopted cautious approach, ahead of key economic data -- industrial production (IIP) for February and consumer price index (CPI) data for March -- to be released tomorrow. However, good gains in banking stocks and a rebound in index heavyweight like Infosys aided intraday rebound for the two key benchmark indices in late trade. The bourses further capitalized on the momentum and spurted in final hour of trades on the back of broad based bottom fishing in undervalued stocks. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 348.32 points or 1.41% to 25022.16, while the CNX Nifty rallied 116.20 points or 1.54% to 7,671.40.


The US market closed lower on Monday, relinquishing earlier gains on lower-than-average volume, as oil futures rallied and the dollar traded lower against most of its rivals. Investors had been bracing for the start of the first-quarter earnings season, which kicks off unofficially with the quarterly results from Alcoa Inc. On the economy front, an increasingly important gauge of US inflation sagged last month back to near record low levels from earlier in the year, adding to the uncertainty over how fast the Federal Reserve can proceed with interest rate hikes in the coming months. Expectations for inflation one year in the future fell to 2.53 percent in March from 2.71 percent in February, according to the New York Fed's survey of consumers. That was the fourth decline in the last six months and put expected inflation at just over a tenth of a percentage point above January's reading of 2.42 percent, which was the lowest level since the survey began in mid-2013. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 20.55 points or 0.12 percent to 17,556.416, Nasdaq was down by 17.29 points or 0.36 percent to 4,833.40 while, S&P 500 dropped 5.61 points or 0.27 percent to 2,041.99.


Crude oil futures surged on Monday to touch their four months high, ahead of a meeting of oil producers in Doha next Sunday aimed at freezing current output levels. Though, there was some profit taking too but the rally of the crude was fueled by strong markets across commodities with the dollar remaining on the backfoot versus major rivals. Oil turned higher after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Russian oil production is seen unchanged in 2017 compared to an expected increase in 2016. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery ended up by $0.64 or 1.60 percent to $40.36 a barrel after trading in a range of $40.01 and $40.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery closed at $42.83, up by $0.89 or 2.12 percent on the ICE.


Extending its gains for second consecutive session, Indian rupee ended modestly stronger against dollar on Monday due to fresh selling of American currency by banks and exporters, tracking gains in Asian currencies markets. Besides, dollar's weakness against some other currencies overseas and gains in local equity markets also supported the rupee. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of key economic data -industrial production (IIP) for February and consumer price index (CPI) data for March to be released tomorrow. On the global front, yen was down from 17-month high against the dollar on Monday after Japanese officials warned again that they could intervene against the currency's 'one-sided' rally. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.43, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.46 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6111.01 crore against gross selling of Rs 6143.79 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2983.02 crore with gross sales of Rs 3041.78 crore.          


The US markets ended modestly lower in the last session as traders expressed concerns that companies will report disappointing first quarter results, with the Aluminum giant Alcoa releasing its first quarter results after the close of trading. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start led by the rebound in the Japanese market as the yen snapped its longest rally since 2012. The Indian markets picked up pace in the final hours of last session, after remaining range bound for most part of the day and ended with decent gains. There was broad based buying and traders lapped up stocks at lower valuation. Today, the start is likely to be in green and markets will be extending their gains ahead of the macro data release of IIP and CPI inflation after the market hours. Traders will be getting some support with World bank's report that India's GDP will grow at 7.7% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2016, not only this driven by India's GDP growth, the World Bank forecasted gradual acceleration in South Asia's economic growth from 7.1 percent in 2016 to 7.3 percent in 2017. Also, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reported that foreign direct investment in the country increased to $42 billion during April-February in 2015-16, up by 27.45 percent from the inflows in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has advised states to stick to fiscal discipline, spend on infrastructure and development activities and to use Aadhaar for transferring benefits to people. There will be some buzz in the oil companies, as the Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan offered investors in the United Arab Emirates investment opportunities worth between $1.5-1.8 billion in projects of state-owned firms.


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  • Tata Motors, India's largest automobile manufacturer, has launched its next-generation PRIMA range of heavy commercial vehicles, in Bhutan, with partners Samden Vehicles and STCBL.
  • Larsen & Toubro's wholly owned subsidiary L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering, has won two orders valued approximately $370 million from Petroleum Development Oman LLC.
  • Tata Steel has reported 12.92% rise in sales to 2.71 million tonne in the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2016 as compared to 2.40 mt sold in previous corresponding period.
  • Bajaj Auto has entered into an agreement with Austrian bike maker KTM AG to extend its distribution network to embrace Indonesia, the biggest motorcycle market in South East Asia.
  • Sun Pharma's arm has received approval from USFDA for its New Drug Application related to BromSite 0.075% for the treatment of postoperative inflammation and prevention of ocular pain in patients undergoing cataract surgery.
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