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NSE Intra-day chart (10 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 11 October 2017
Markets to make a positive start on sanguine global cues

Indian equity benchmarks managed to garner marginal gains and ended the Tuesday's trade in green terrain, with frontline gauges settling above their crucial 10,000 (Nifty) and 31,900 (Sensex) levels, as investors went for value buying in the blue-chip stocks ahead of the festival season. Market participants also remained optimistic on second-quarter earnings starting with TCS on October 12 and Reliance Industries on October 13. After making a positive start, markets traded in a particular range throughout the session to end with modest gains, as sentiments remained upbeat with RBI Governor Urjit Patel's statement that the economy is recovering, after growth slowed to a three-year low of 5.7 percent in the April-June quarter. He added that the GDP growth will pick up in the third and fourth quarters (of the current fiscal year) to above 7 per cent. Traders also took encouragement with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that India can become a much cleaner and bigger economy among the emerging economies as it has the capacity to implement bold decisions and scale them up efficiently. However, gains remained capped with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) releasing data that indicates pessimism reigns among consumers and there is less hope for improvement in general economic conditions compared to last year. The RBI's results of the September 2017 round of the Consumer Confidence Survey, reflecting households' perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and their own income and spending, showed the Current Situation Index waned further into the pessimistic zone. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 77.52 points or 0.24% to 31,924.41, while the CNX Nifty was up by 28.20 points or 0.28% to 10,016.95.


The US closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow finishing at its 47th record high for 2017, as optimism appeared to grow ahead of the start of the earnings season, which will provide concrete insight into the state of US corporations. This week, investors are likely to focus on two main events - the release of the FOMC's minutes from its September meeting and the launch of third-quarter earnings season. On the economy front, sentiment among small-business owners stumbled in September as expectations for sales and economic growth plunged. The sentiment gauge from the National Federation of Independent Business fell to 103 from 105.3. NFIB's index soared after the election on hopes of more business-friendly policies from Washington, including a rollback of the Affordable Care Act. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 69.61 points or 0.31 percent to 22,830.68, the Nasdaq gained 7.52 points or 0.11 percent to 6,587.25, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 5.91points or 0.23 percent to 2,550.64.


Crude oil futures surged on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia vowed to reduce monthly crude exports amid expectations that market rebalancing is underway. Saudi Arabia pledged to cut its November crude oil exports by 7% or 560,000 barrels a day, compared with the same period last year in order to strengthen the market rebalancing process. OPEC Secretary General Barkindo said that "We urge our friends, in the shale basins of North America to take this shared responsibility with all seriousness it deserves, as one of the key lessons learnt from the current unique supply-driven cycle". Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended higher by $1.34 or 2.7 percent at $50.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery gained 1.68 percent to $56.48 a barrel on the ICE.


Strengthening for the second consecutive session, Indian rupee concluded marginally stronger against dollar on Tuesday on increased selling of the greenback by exporters and banks. The sentiments remained on positive note with RBI Governor Urjit Patel's statement that the economy is recovering, after growth slowed to a three-year low of 5.7% in the April-June quarter. Besides, a fall in dollar against major world currencies globally along with positive local equity markets also helped the domestic currency. On the global front, dollar edged lower against yen on Tuesday as concerns over North Korea kept investors wary and the euro hit one-week highs following upbeat German trade data and hawkish remarks by a European Central Bank official. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.28, 7 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.35 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2920.76 crore against gross selling Rs 3359.88 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 462.02 crore with gross sales of Rs 743.22 crore.


The US markets despite choppy trade managed a modestly positive close in last session and with the gains on the day, the Dow and the Nasdaq ended the session at new record closing highs. However, a lack of major U.S. economic news led traders to be reluctant to make more significant moves. The Asian markets have made a green start and taking cues from the US markets, though all eyes are on minutes from latest Federal Reserve meeting due today. The Indian markets despite some volatility ended with gain of a quarter percent in the last session. Today the start is likely to be in green on sanguine global cues and the markets will extend their momentum. Traders will be eyeing the first meeting of the recently constituted Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), to deliberate upon and lay out a roadmap to give a leg up to the Indian economy in the short term. There will be some encouragement with OPEC's statement that India is experiencing some of the greatest structural changes as bold new reforms like note ban and GST have put the country firmly on a sustainable growth path. However, there will be some concern too with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) paring India's growth forecast for FY18, citing the lingering impact of demonetisation and disruption caused by the goods and services tax (GST), though it expects a revival as structural reforms bear fruit. Also, credit rating agency India Ratings sees muted private capex conditions to continue for two more financial years on account of weak consumption demand, global overcapacity and negative impact of Goods and Services Tax on working capital. There will be some buzz in agri related stocks, as the Union Minister for Water Resources Nitin Gadkari has said that the Centre plans to launch 285 irrigation projects covering a total of 1.88 crore hectares of farmland by next year.



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  • Coal India has reported 20.6 percent rise in supply of coal to power utilities to 35.1 million tonnes in September.
  • IOC has bought two new types of U.S. crude for December delivery as it tests different grades from the United States.
  • Tech Mahindra has entered into partnership pact with medical devices company Terumo BCT.
  • L&T has emerged as the lowest bidder for the smart meter tender issued by EESL for the procurement of 50 lakh smart meters to be installed in Uttar Pradesh and Haryana.
News Analysis