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Market Commentary 11 July 2016
Markets to get a gap-up start of the new week

 

Indian benchmark indices finished the week on a sluggish note as the major bourses showcased an unenthusiastic performance on Friday and settled with modes cuts of around a quarter percent.  Sentiments largely remained pessimistic in the local markets with a steady stream of negative news this week in the form of rising Brexit uncertainty and a growing crisis in Italian banks. Further, investors turned jittery after a global financial service major stated that India's economy may grow at a slightly slower pace of 7.4% this fiscal amid weaker global demand and risk aversion, flagging methodological concerns in computation of official GDP data. However, the downside for the markets was capped with Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das' statement that the Finance Ministry is hoping that the prices of pulses will now be contained and help keep inflation under check due to the higher minimum support price for pulses. Also the government has decided to introduce the GST Bill on the first working day of the monsoon session of Parliament, in what could be a sign of its confidence that it can notch up the numbers for the long-pending legislation. Meanwhile, shares of print media companies gained on reports that the government is planning to raise the foreign direct investment limit in newspapers and periodicals to 49% from 26% at present. On the other hand, Telecom stocks declined after reports suggested that the telecom department is likely to soon send out demand notices to some carriers for under reporting of revenues. Further, stocks of companies involved in oil exploration & production activities came under pressure as global crude oil prices dropped. On the global front, Asian markets ended lower on Friday, while the European stock markets were mostly higher in early trade. Back home, after getting cautious start, the local benchmark indices soon drifted to lowest levels in the session as investors were largely influenced by the daunting sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. However, the psychological 8,300 and 27,100 levels proved as strong support levels for the key gauges as the benchmarks soon recovered from the lows and oscillated in a narrow band but failed to claw back into the green by the end. Finally, the BSE Sensex ended lower by 74.59 points or 0.27% to 27126.90, while the CNX Nifty dropped 14.70 points or 0.18% to 8,323.20. 

 

US markets came out of slumber and surged on Friday to end near their best levels of the day, reacting to the closely watched monthly jobs report, the Labor Department in its report showed much stronger than expected job growth in the month of June. The non-farm payroll employment surged up by 287,000 jobs in June versus estimates for an increase of about 180,000 jobs. However, the Labor Department also said the uptick in jobs in May was downwardly revised to just 11,000 from the 38,000 originally reported. The report also said the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent in June from 4.7 percent in May, the increase primarily reflected a rebound in the number of people in the labor force. On the wage front, the Labor Department said average hourly employee earnings rose by $0.02 to $25.61 in June after rising by $0.06 in May. In other positive economic news, consumer credit in the US increased by more than anticipated in the month of May. The Federal Reserve said consumer credit climbed by $18.6 billion in May after rising by $13.4 billion in April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 250.86 points or 1.4 percent to 18,146.74, the Nasdaq gained 79.95 points or 1.64 percent to 4,956.76 and the S&P 500 jumped by 32.00 points or 1.53 percent to 2,129.90.

 

Crude oil futures showed some bounce back and moved slightly higher on Friday, on getting good jobs data, which showed a much-larger-than-expected jump in jobs growth and on report a day earlier showing a lower than expected crude inventory draw last week. Though, a closely-watched report showed that US oil rigs crept up last week. The oil services firm Baker Hughes in its weekly rig count report said that US oil rigs rose by 10 to 351 last week for the week ending on July 1. It marked the fifth weekly increase in the domestic rig count over the last six weeks. The combined Oil and Gas count, increased by nine to 440. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery gained $0.16 or 0.35 percent to $45.30, after trading in a range of $44.78 and $45.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for August delivery ended at $46.67, up by $0.27 or 0.58 percent on the ICE.

 

Extending its gains for second consecutive session, Indian rupee ended marginally stronger against dollar on Friday on increased selling of the US currency by banks and exporters. Sentiments got some support with Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das' statement that the Finance Ministry is hoping that the prices of pulses will now be contained and help keep inflation under check due to the higher minimum support price for pulses. Also the government has decided to introduce the GST Bill on the first working day of the monsoon session of Parliament, in what could be a sign of its confidence that it can notch up the numbers for the long-pending legislation. However, investors remained cautious ahead of the crucial U.S. jobs report due out later in the day for clues on the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. On the global front, yen was stronger against dollar as investors contended with a disappointing readings on labor cash earnings as well as nominal wage growth. Finally the rupee ended at 67.37, 2 paise stronger from its previous close of 67.39 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4341.37 crore against gross sell of Rs 4775.41 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1568.33 crore with gross sales of Rs 1299.73 crore.

 

The US markets surged in last session on getting a better than expected jobs data that damped concern the world's biggest economy is losing momentum. The Asian markets have made a strong start taking cues from the upbeat US markets and many of the indices are trading up by over a percent, while the Japanese markets has taken the lead and was higher by over three percent after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition won an election and the yen fell for the first time in a week. The Indian markets remained in consolidation mood in the last session and the major averages lost about a quarter percent after trading mostly in a range. Today, the start of the data heavy week is likely to be in green on jubilant lead from the global markets, though traders apart from the IIP and inflation data later in the week will be eyeing quarterly earnings from blue-chips TCS and Infosys for cues. Traders will be getting some support with NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya's statement that the government has put the economy on the path of reform to achieve a high growth trajectory though there are significant lags between policy decisions and outcomes which need to be addressed. He also said that today, the economy is far healthier compared to the last year of UPA II in all macroeconomic parameters. However, there will be some concern as well, with the recently-concluded meeting of G20 trade ministers ahead of the big summit later this year stating that investments, globally, are likely to fall 15 per cent in the coming year and there was a need for the G20 to show its leadership. There will be buzz in the chemical stocks, as the government has imposed anti-dumping duty on imports of chemicals from five countries, including China and Iran, to protect domestic manufacturers. The imports of the chemical from the five countries (China, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan) will attract anti-dumping duty in the range of $ 83.08 per tonne to $ 168.76 per tone. The earnings season kicks off with IndusInd Bank set to announce its June quarter results today.

 

                            Support and Resistance: CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8323.20

8289.40

8355.15

BSE Sensex

27126.90

27009.09

27269.77

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

State Bank of India

160.17

218.30

216.25

220.60

Tata Motors

92.64

466.30

463.23

468.78

Hindalco Industries

83.27

126.85

125.33

128.53

Tata Steel

77.64

318.35

313.83

321.13

Bank of Baroda

71.86

154.75

152.60

157.90

  • Reliance Industries subsidiary - Reliance Jio Infocomm has issued Rs 2,000 crore of 5 year Non-Convertible Debentures, bearing a coupon of 8.32% per annum, payable annually.
  • Lupin has received notification that the inspection carried out by the US FDA in July 2015 at its Goa facility is now closed and the agency has issued an Establishment Inspection Reports.
  • NTPC has entered into an agreement with Artificial Limbs Manufacturing Corporation of India to benefit around 5000 Persons with Disability in the neighborhood of NTPC stations / projects over a period of three years starting 2016-17.
  • The Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta group announced expansion of its Africa business.
  • Bharti Airtel is planning to extend 4G footprint to 19 circles in 3-4 months.
News Analysis