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NSE Intra-day chart (09 March 2017)
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Market Commentary 10 March 2017
Markets to start in green on inline expected exit poll results

Indian benchmarks ended the range bound day of trade on a flat note with positive bias as investors remained cautious ahead of exit polls data for assembly elections in 5 states which will be released later in the day. Actual results will be announced on Saturday, and will help to shape the next two years of Modi's government as it heads for the 2019 general election. Sentiments got some support after Prime Minister Narendra Modi express the hope of reaching a breakthrough on the goods and services tax (GST) bill in the Budget session of Parliament that resumed after a month-long break on Thursday. The government is looking to roll out the new tax regime from July 1. Further, some support also came with the report that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will chair a high-level meeting with Reserve Bank officials on Friday to address the issue of non-performing assets in the banking sector. The meeting, which will also be attended by Financial Services Secretary Anjuly Chib Duggal, will discuss ways of resolution of stressed assets urgently. However, gains remained capped with the ICRA's report that India's current account deficit is expected to see a 50 per cent rise to $30 billion in 2017-18 from $20 billion in the current financial year on higher oil and gold imports. Since 2013-14, a combination of lower crude oil and gold imports has helped curtail India's current account deficit, absorbing the impact of declining merchandise exports, services trade surplus or remittances in some of these years. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 27.19 points or 0.09% to 28929.13, while the CNX Nifty was up by 2.70 points or 0.03% to 8,927.00.


The US markets closed higher on Thursday, on the back of a rebound in energy shares as the bull market quietly marked its unofficial eighth birthday. Thursday marks the eighth anniversary of the bull market, based on the fact that the S&P 500 notched its bear-market closing low on March 9, 2009. According to the recent polls, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week in response to a series of strong economic data, with two more hikes likely to follow later this year. Hawkish comments from several Fed officials have pushed interest rate futures markets to bet on a rate hike on March 15, with the probability now at 90 percent, up from just 30 percent early last week. On the economy front, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits jumped by 20,000 to 243,000 in early March, but layoffs remained near a 45-year low. Just a week earlier, new claims had fallen to the lowest level since March 1973. And they've come under the key 300,000 threshold for 105 straight weeks, the second longest streak since the mid-1960s. The four-week average of initial claims, meanwhile, rose by 2,250 to 236,500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.46 points or 0.01 percent to 20,858.19, Nasdaq was up 1.26 points or 0.02 percent to 5,838.81, while S&P 500 gained 1.89 points or 0.08 percent to 2,364.87.


Crude oil futures extended their decline on Thursday with the Nymex crude plunging to the lowest since November, as growing U.S. crude inventories to record levels weighed on sentiment. Despite OPEC's high level of compliance with production cuts agreed last November, U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose to an all-time high of 528.4 million barrels for the week ended March 1. A stronger dollar has also weighed on oil prices in anticipation of a U.S. interest rate hike next week. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery plunged by $1 to $49.28 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended lower by $0.98 at $52.13 on the ICE.


Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against the US dollar on Thursday on account of buying of American currency by banks and importers amid stronger-than-expected US private-sector jobs figures in February sealed expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the exit polls data for assembly elections in five states that is set to release later in the day. Sentiment remained subdued with the ICRA's report that India's current account deficit is expected to see a 50 per cent rise to $30 billion in 2017-18 from $20 billion in the current financial year on higher oil and gold imports. Also, a weak domestic equity market affected the rupee sentiment. On the global front, dollar hit a three-week high against the yen on Thursday, on course for a fourth straight day of broader gains after a strong ADP job number in the previous session broke 10-year US government bond yields out of a long-held range. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.71, 1 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.70 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while there were no buying and selling witnessed in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.32 crore.


The US markets managed a modestly positive close in last session, though the consolidation continued and the markets showed a lack of direction throughout the trading session ahead of the release of the Labor Department's closely watched jobs report on Friday. The Asian markets have made a mixed start and some of the indices are marginally in red, however the Japanese market has strengthened and was up by over a percent as the yen weakened against the dollar. The Indian markets sensing the exit poll outcome of the 5 states, picked up pace in final hours of the last session and posted modest gains. Today the start is likely to be in green with the exit polls confirming that the ruling party in center BJP will be near to forming government in 4 out of 5 states that went to election.  Though the global cues are mixed but the markets going for a long weekend will be accumulating gains today ahead of the final poll verdict on March 11. There will be some cautiousness too with the domestic rating agency ICRA stating that higher oil and gold imports will end the four-year trend of moderation in the current account deficit (CAD) in 2017-18, and the gap will widen to $ 30 billion or 1.2 percent of the GDP. It expects both a rise in prices as well volumes in both the commodities. The IT stocks will be buzzing with the government trying to assuage concerns of Indian professionals over H1B visa, saying the steps taken by the US were aimed at illegal immigration and it would continue to engage with the Donald Trump administration on the issue.


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  • Tata Motors' subsidiary -- Jaguar Land Rover has sealed an agreement with EDF Energy to buy all its electricity from renewable sources up to March 2020.
  • HDFC Bank has digitized payments at over 1,200 dairy co-operatives in the country under its Milk to Money programme.
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories' formulation manufacturing facility at Duvvada, Visakhapatnam, has been audited by the USFDA, and the audit has been completed on March 8, 2017
  • HDFC will raise Rs 2,000 crore on private placement basis by issuing NCDs to shore up its long term capital.  
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