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NSE Intra-day chart (08 November 2016)
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Market Commentary 09 November 2016
Markets to make a positive start, to get traction in latter trade

Indian benchmark indices carried forward their northbound journey for yet another session on Tuesday, as optimistic cues from across the globe helped the indices to close around crucial support levels of 8,550 and 27,600. It turned out to be a rather volatile day of trade as the indices rebounded after drifting to lower levels in the noon session, though sustained position build up was witnessed on hopes Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in Tuesday's (November 8) presidential election but traders are cautious, with many opinion polls saying the race is too close to call. Global equities and risk assets surged on Monday after the FBI said it would not pursue criminal charges against Clinton over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Clinton is considered by many investors to be a safer bet than Trump, who is seen as a loose cannon with policies many fear could wreck the world's top economy. On the domestic front, sentiments remained optimistic on the report that Retail inflation is expected to soften to 4.1 per cent in October and ease further to sub-4 per cent level by November-December, largely helped by favourable base effect. The report noted that the sequential increase in food index in October was largely led by higher prices of gram pulse, sugar and cooking oil, which were possibly due to increased festival demand for these key ingredients. Adding optimism among investors, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the Centre will step up on reforms to attract more investment and fill up infrastructure deficit. He also said that after seven decades of independence, India's voice is increasingly getting noticed in the world, therefore to reform more, to open more, to attract more investment, to expand more in manufacturing, they need to fill up the infrastructure deficit faster than what they have been doing. Some support also came in from reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 311 crore on November 07, 2016. Meanwhile, a report has stated that GST benefits are likely to accrue over time rather than immediately, though in the long run the indirect tax regime will boost growth, lower costs and strengthen tax revenues. It added that it expects over time, as the GST council widens the tax net, minimises the tax slabs and lower the standard tax rates, the benefits will be substantial. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 132.15 points or 0.48% to 27591.14, while the CNX Nifty rose 46.50 points or 0.55% to 8,543.55.

The US markets closed mostly higher on Tuesday despite moving moderately lower in early session, with major averages adding to the substantial gains posted in the previous session. Traders showed some optimism on the Presidential Election Day, though they were reluctant to make any significant moves in early deals as they await the results of the election. The race between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican rival Donald Trump has been among the most the divisive in history and the outcome could have a significant impact on economic policy. On economy front, an official data showed that the number of job openings in the U.S. rose less than expected in September, but remained in territory consistent with an improving labor market as employers actively seek workers. The U.S. Labor Department said that the number of job openings, excluding the farming industry, increased to 5.486 million in September from 5.453 million a month earlier, which was revised from the original reading of 5.443 million. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 72.83 points or 0.4 percent to 18,332.43, the Nasdaq advanced 27.32 points or 0.5 percent to 5,193.49 and the S&P 500 ended up by 8.01 points or 0.4 percent to 2,139.53.

Crude oil futures added modest gains on Tuesday, after Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that it expects US crude oil production for 2016 and 2017 to fall by less than previously expected. The EIA expects US oil output to average 8.84 million barrels a day this year and 8.73 million barrels a day next year, up from its prior forecasts of 8.73 million in 2016 and 8.59 million in 2017. Though, investors awaited US presidential election results and looked further ahead to U.S. industry inventory estimates. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery gained $0.09 or 0.2 percent to close at $44.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for December delivery was down by $0.37 or 0.15 percent to $45.78 a barrel on the ICE.

Indian rupee ended one-month high against US dollar on account of fresh selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Sentiments remained optimistic on the report that Retail inflation is expected to soften to 4.1 percent in October and ease further to sub-4 percent level by November-December, largely helped by favourable base effect. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the Centre will step up on reforms to attract more investment and fill up infrastructure deficit. On the global front, dollar inched lower ahead of voting in the US presidential election, a sign of last-minute nerves over the chances of a victory for Donald Trump that traders and analysts say would knock several percent off the greenback's value.

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4281.93 crore against gross sell of Rs 4090.43 crore, while in debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 768.42 crore with gross sales of Rs 650.45 crore. 

The US markets recovered from the early decline and managed a positive close on US Presidential Election Day. Wall Street sees the former secretary of state Hillary Clinton as lending in the US presidential election.  The Asian markets have made a mixed start, with some indices trading marginally in red, as early state exit polls in the US presidential election showed wins for both candidates and no clear trend as yet. The Indian markets extended the gaining streak despite a choppy trade in last session after the latest polls suggested that Americans will probably elect Democrat Hillary Clinton as their next president. Today, the start is likely to be cautious and traders will also be reacting to the government's unexpected decision to withdraw Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes from circulation at midnight, saying this decision was taken to break the grip of corruption and black money. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 "will not be legal tender from midnight tonight" and these will be "just worthless pieces of paper."  RBI Governor Urjit Patel said that this step will help to put an end to the circulation of fake money and that they have increased the production of the new currency. Traders will also be eyeing the US Presidential Election and there will be lot of uncertainty till the results of the poll will be announced. Traders will be getting some support with news that a new and simpler portal for the incoming Goods and Services Tax regime went live on Tuesday that will enable easy filing of returns and tax payments through credit/debit cards and other modes. There will be lots of result announcements to keep the markets buzzing.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)


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  • ICICI Bank has reported 12.86% fall in its consolidated net profit at Rs 2978.95 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 as compared to Rs 3418.53 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Bharat Heavy Electricals has reported net profit at Rs 109.00 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 as compared to a net loss of Rs 180.78 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Wipro has launched its Open Banking Application Programming Interface Platform.
  • Axis Bank in partnership with Flipkart has unveiled 'Buzz Credit Card'. It is a contactless payment solution that offers multiple benefits to enhance customers' online shopping experience.  
  • ONGC is seeking total pricing freedom for natural gas produced in the country, arguing it would help boost local output and develop India into a vibrant gas market.

News Analysis