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NSE Intra-day chart (08 March 2018)
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Market Commentary 09 March 2018
Markets likely to make an optimistic start on firm global cues


Indian equity benchmarks ended the Thursday's trade in green terrain with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 33,300 (Sensex) and 10,200 (Nifty) levels, as traders opted to buy beaten down but fundamentally strong stock after six days of continuous drubbing. After making an optimistic start, markets almost pared all of their initial gains, as the Congress' victory over the ruling BJP in Rajasthan local body polls and the Telugu Desam Party's decision to pull out two of its ministers in the central government kept the underlying sentiment somewhat cautious. Markets started gaining momentum in noon deals as traders took encouragement with Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the country's economy, which had witnessed slow growth due to decline in private investment and other factors, is on the rise again. He added that the employment should get due attention and that job creation would contribute to GDP growth as well. Some support also came from report that the Indian government reiterated its pitch for a sovereign rating upgrade to Fitch, citing strong macro-economic fundamentals. Fitch has a BBB-, the lowest investment grade sovereign rating on India, with a stable outlook. Some support also came with report highlighting that government is committed to bring down fiscal deficit in the medium term. The government also expects Asia's third largest economy to grow at 8 percent in the next couple of years. Besides, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that focus would be laid on development of 115 backward districts that he termed as ‘aspirational districts', too provided some support to the markets. Investors took note of the report stating that the government sought Parliament nod for additional cash spending of Rs 85,315.30 crore in the current fiscal, of which 70 per cent is earmarked to compensate states for revenue loss on account of GST roll out. Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs Arjun Ram Meghwal moved the fourth batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants for 2017-18 in the Lok Sabha. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 318.48 points or 0.96% to 33,351.57, while the CNX Nifty was up by 88.45 points or 0.87% to 10,242.65.


The US markets closed higher on Thursday, as gains in the Consumer Goods, Healthcare and Utilities sectors led shares higher. US President Donald Trump hailed great progress in talks with North Korea after agreeing to meet Kim Jong Un in what would be an unprecedented summit. President Donald Trump pressed ahead with the imposition of 25 percent tariffs on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum on Thursday but exempted Canada and Mexico, backtracking from earlier pledges of tariffs on all countries. On the economy front, US economic growth for the fourth quarter is likely to be revised higher after data indicated more spending on services than previously estimated by the government. The Commerce Department's quarterly services survey, or QSS, added to December data on construction spending and manufacturers' inventories is suggesting that gross domestic product grew much faster than the 2.5 percent annualized rate reported by the government in its second estimate last month. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rebounded last week from a more than 48-year low, but the trend continued to point to robust labor market conditions. That was underscored by other data showing job cuts announced by US-based employers fell 20 percent in February. Federal Reserve officials consider the labor market to be near or a little beyond full employment. The tight jobs market is seen boosting wage growth and spurring inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 93.85 points or 0.38 percent to 24,895.21, Nasdaq gained 31.297 points or 0.42 percent to 7,427.95, and the S&P 500 was up by 12.17 points or 0.45 percent to 2,738.97.   


Crude oil futures edged lower for second straight day on Thursday as continued gains in U.S. crude production pushed prices to their lowest finish in more than three weeks. Oil prices had dropped by over 2 percent on Wednesday, pressurized with report that showing that U.S. oil production hit a new weekly record. President Donald Trump's plans to set tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and the recent resignation of top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn also fueled concern over a potential trade war, increasing worries about global demand for U.S. oil. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery declined $1.03 or 1.7 percent at $60.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude dropped by 73 cents or 1.1 percent to settle at $63.61 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Snapping its four-day winning streak, Indian rupee ended considerably weaker against dollar on Thursday, due to demand for greenback by banks and importers. Investors overlooked Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that India's economy bottomed out and is on the rise again, citing good third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the fiscal year 2017-18. He also said that the country's economy had witnessed slow growth because of decline in private investment and other factors and added that this has all started changing and investment cycle has turned. Strong rally in local equity markets and sustained capital inflows even also failed to arrest rupee's fall. On the global front, US dollar strengthened against its major counterparts on Thursday, as White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders suggested Canada, Mexico and other countries may be exempted from forthcoming tariffs on steel and aluminium. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.14, 25 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.89 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, in equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4870.34 crore against gross selling of Rs 5475.13 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 816.25 crore with gross sales of Rs 1015.54 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.56 crore.


The US markets closed higher on Thursday after President Donald Trump signed proclamations imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Trump announced last week that he planned to impose a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports. Asian markets were trading mostly in green on Friday as markets cheered news that U.S. President Donald Trump had agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Indian markets rebounded from six days of losses on Thursday, as trade worries showed signs of easing amid expectations that U.S. trade tariffs are likely to be differentiated by country and product. Today, the markets are likely to make an optimistic start following firm global leads. Traders will get some encouragement with report that the direct tax collections jumped by nearly 20 per cent between April and February this fiscal as the Income-Tax Department races to meet its full year targets. The net direct tax receipts grew by a hefty 19.5 per cent in the first 11 months of the fiscal amounting to Rs 7.44 lakh crore. Net corporate income tax collections increased by 19.7 per cent in the period, while personal income tax receipts grew by 18.6 per cent. Some support will also come with Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that the 7.2 per cent expansion in the economy during October-December quarter has put the country in one of the highest growth bracket in the world and recovery will continue to be sharp going ahead. The third quarter growth of 7.2 per cent was highest in five quarters. The previous high was recorded at 7.5 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2016-17. There will be buzz in telecom related stocks after Telecom Minister Manoj Sinha has asked India's top carriers to focus on improving services instead of fighting among themselves, especially now that the government has cleared measures for immediate relief, which should drive investments.


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