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Market Commentary 08 May 2020
Markets to open in green amid positive global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended highly volatile trade in red terrain with losses of over half percent on Thursday, with Sensex and Nifty closing below their crucial 31,450 and 9,200 levels, respectively. Markets commenced the session with gap-down opening, as traders remain concerned with Chief economic adviser KV Subramanian's statement that India's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract in the first quarter, but is likely to grow 2% for the full financial year. But, markets soon tried to cut losses, taking support from Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that the government is working on a package of structural reforms across sunrise sectors to convert India into a global manufacturing and exporting hub. Some support also came as markets regulator Sebi gave certain relaxations to companies from compliance with procedural norms pertaining to rights issues opening up to July 31 amid the coronavirus lockdown. But, key indices failed to hold recovery and resumed selling activity in early noon deals, as anxiety remained among the traders with coronavirus cases in the country crossed 50,000 in a steady rise despite weeks-long lockdown, which has also hampered the economic growth of the country. Traders failed to take any senses of relief from former union minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that focusing on district level growth in post-COVID period will help creating huge employment opportunities, contain migration from villages and push India's GDP. He said that increasing district level growth by additional 3 per cent will help increase the national GDP. Meanwhile, the government has extended the last date for filing annual GST return for financial year 2018-19 by three months till September 2020. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 242.37 points or 0.76% to 31,443.38, while the CNX Nifty was down by 71.85 points or 0.78% to 9,199.05.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday with a rally in shares of energy and financials powering the day's moves. A rally in the technology-related Nasdaq helped to drive the index retrace its coronavirus-induced selloff of the past two months. The strength on markets came amid continued optimism about the U.S. economy at least partially reopening in the near future. News that a coronavirus vaccine being developed by Moderna (MRNA) has been given FDA approval for a phase 2 trial added to the positive sentiment. The gains came despite a US weekly jobless claims report showing another 3 million Americans lost their jobs, but investors appeared relieved that the pace of job losses is ebbing as some states begin to reopen their economies. First-time claims for US unemployment benefits pulled back further off their recent record high in the week ended May 2nd, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 3.169 million, a decrease of 677,000 from the previous week's revised level of 3.846 million. Street had expected jobless claims to tumble to 3.000 million from the 3.839 million originally reported for the previous week. Meanwhile, a report released by the Labor Department showed US labor productivity pulled back by much less than expected in the first quarter. The Labor Department said labor productivity slumped by 2.5 percent in the first quarter after jumping by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Street had expected productivity to plunge by 5.5 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, giving up earlier gains, with downbeat comments from Federal Reserve officials on economic activity and some doubts over producer compliance with the OPEC+ output-cut agreement prompting prices to settle lower. Three Federal Reserve district bank presidents said that they don't expect a quick rebound in economic activity even as states ease COVID-19 lockdown measures. Besides, US weekly jobless claims data showed more than 3 million Americans lost employment. Crude oil futures for June dropped 44 cents or 1.8 percent to settle at $23.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude fell 26 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $29.46 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian Money market remained closed on Thursday on account of Buddha Purnima.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4813.92 crore against gross selling of Rs 5137.78 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 936.35 crore with gross sales of Rs 994.56 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.52 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.50 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday amid continued optimism about the US economy at least partially reopening in the near future. Asian markets are trading in green on Friday following gains on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets ended lower on Thursday as coronavirus cases continued to rise in the country, putting pressure on an already slowing economy. Today, the start of session is likely to be optimistic tracking gains in global markets. Traders will be getting some encouragement with Giridhar Aramane, Secretary in the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways' statement that the government is working on a comprehensive financial package not only for MSMEs but for all sectors of the economy. Also, chief economic adviser (CEA) Krishnamurthy Subramanian expressed optimism that the Indian economy will stage a better recovery once the Covid-19 outbreak subsides and it will be a V-shaped recovery. Some support will also come with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that public sector banks (PSBs) sanctioned loans worth Rs 5.66 lakh crore for more than 41.81 lakh accounts, during March-April 2020, and added that the economy is poised to recover. Meanwhile, the Central Board of Direct taxes (CBDT) has amended a rule to settle disputes expeditiously under mutual agreement procedure (MAP), which is a dispute resolution process under tax treaties. It has also revised form 34F which is used for making application for invoking MAP. Though, there may be some cautiousness with report that confirmed COVID-19 cases in India stand at 52,952. The death toll from the outbreak in India is at 1,783. Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi have reported the highest number of cases. There will be some reaction in sugar stocks with the All India Sugar Trade Association's (AISTA) report that sugar mills have exported 33.49 lakh tonnes of sweetener so far in the current marketing year ending September, with help from government's financial assistance. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,199.05

9,157.35

9,259.30

BSE Sensex

31,443.38

31,302.42

31,644.80

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

Hindustan Unilever

1,856.70

1,992.05

1,927.03

2,032.03

State Bank of India

429.44

170.75

168.85

172.60

Axis Bank

413.39

397.35

385.95

405.50

Tata Motors

311.61

82.50

81.52

84.07

ICICI Bank

276.57

336.75

332.67

341.87

 

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and its subsidiaries have received approval for their NDA, Elyxyb (celecoxib oral solution 25 mg/mL) from the USFDA. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India is going to re-start the production of vehicles at its Manesar plant from May 12. 
  • HDFC is planning to raise up to Rs 5,000 crore by issuing bonds on private placement basis to meet its business requirements. 
  • Eicher Motors' motorcycle arm -- Royal Enfield has resumed operations at its manufacturing plants from May 06, 2020.
News Analysis