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Market Commentary 08 May 2018
Markets likely to start slightly in green on firm global cues

 

Monday turned out to be a remarkable day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks where bulls made come back on Dalal Street, with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 35,200 (Sensex) and 10,700 (Nifty) levels. The markets' mood remained up-beat throughout the day and benchmarks fervently gained from strength to strength, as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Markets started the session on an optimistic note as traders took encouragement with ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada's statement that India's projected GDP growth of over 7% for the current fiscal is amazingly fast and if this momentum is maintained the size of the economy can double within a decade. He also said that the country shouldn't worry about not achieving 8% growth but focus on increasing domestic demand by reducing the income inequality. Some support also came with Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that the government is working on a strategy to promote services exports which have the potential to boost overall foreign shipments and economic growth. Markets extended rally in second half of trade on report highlighting that with the GST collection in April crossing the Rs 1-trillion-mark, the FY19 target of Rs 12.9 trillion mop-up seems feasible. It added that going forward, with government introducing anti- evasion measures like TDS, TCS and credit matching, these could be hopeful of very good GST collection for FY19. Investors shrugged off a report that foreign investors have pulled out over Rs 15,500 crore from the Indian capital market in April, making it the steepest outflow in 16 months, due to surge in global crude prices and rise in yields of government securities here. This comes after an inflow of Rs 11,654 crore in equities in March and an outflow of over Rs 9,000 crore from the debt market during the same period. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 292.76 points or 0.84% to 35,208.14, while the CNX Nifty was up by 97.25 points or 0.92% to 10,715.50.

 

The US markets closed higher on Monday, though off the peak of the day, as energy shares pulled back following a late-afternoon tweet from President Donald Trump indicated that a decision was imminent on whether the US would decertify a 2015 Iran nuclear pact. Trump tweeted that he would make an announcement on a possible decertification of the Iran nuclear agreement that the Obama administration had reached with the Middle Eastern country back in 2015. European leaders had urged Trump not to abandon the pact. Trump had until May 12 to decide whether to keep the deal intact. Abandoning it would trigger a re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran, hampering oil exports from the country and cutting global supply.  On the economy front, the Federal Reserve said consumer credit in March grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.6%, or $11.6 billion, to mark the slowest gain since September. February's gain was revised higher to show a $13.6 billion advance instead of a previously reported $10.6 billion gain. Non-revolving credit such as student and auto loans grew 6%, the third straight month of growth around that level. Revolving credit, namely credit cards, fell 3%, marking the second drop in a row. It's still narrowly holding above the $1 trillion level. With rising employment and erratic but growing gains in income, consumer credit should continue to increase. But consumer credit growth, north of 7% in 2014 and 2015, has slowed to a rate of 4.25% in the first quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 94.81 points or 0.39 percent to 24,357.32, the Nasdaq gained 55.596 points or 0.77 percent to 7,265.21, and the S&P 500 was up by 9.21 points or 0.35 percent to 2,672.63.

 

Crude oil futures jumped to their highest since November 2014 amid concerns that the US will hit Iran with severe sanctions for its nuclear ambitions. However, Iran says that fresh sanctions will not upset its oil production. Iran has been playing a major role in global oil production since 2016 after the sanctions were lifted, and if the U.S. walks away from the deal, it would disturb the global supply and demand equation. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) efforts since the start of last year to curb global production have had the biggest influence on crude values, along with growing demand for oil and Venezuela's output woes. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery jumped by $1.01 or 1.50 percent to settle at $70.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude gained $1.70 or 1.70 percent to settle at $76.17 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Stretching slide for the second straight day, Indian rupee breached the psychological 67/dollar mark to hit its lowest in 15 months on Monday, on the back of consistent demand for the greenback from banks and importers. Sentiments remained under pressure with a report that foreign investors have pulled out over Rs 15,500 crore from the Indian capital market in April, making it the steepest outflow in 16 months, due to surge in global crude prices and rise in yields of government securities here. This comes after an inflow of Rs 11,654 crore in equities in March and an outflow of over Rs 9,000 crore from the debt market during the same period. However, good inflows from foreign funds in the equity markets restricted the currency's fall. On the global front, dollar climbed back towards its highest level in 2018 on Monday as investors continued to bet that rising interest rates in the United States would boost the greenback. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.13, 26 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.87 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3466.57 crore against gross selling of Rs 5045.10 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2053.40 crore with gross sales of Rs 2401.47 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.72 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.78 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday as upward momentum seen last Friday in response to the Labor Department's monthly jobs report. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday, following the firmer lead from Wall Street. The Japanese stock market recovered after a weak start and is modestly higher, with exporters mostly higher despite a stronger yen. Indian markets ended in red on Monday as mixed U.S. jobs data helped ease fears of faster rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Today, the markets are likely to make an optimistic start tracking firm global cues. Traders will react on private report stating that the government is considering setting a time limit for withdrawing cases admitted for insolvency resolution, ending ambiguity on a key aspect of the procedure. Companies referred to bankruptcy courts may not be allowed to leave the process once bids have been invited or a resolution plan has been accepted. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) was justified in denying information pertaining to the printing of currency notes post demonetisation citing exemption clauses related to national and economic security in the RTI Act. There will be buzz in telecom related stocks after Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) issued 26 orders imposing fines of over Rs 2.81 crore for unsolicited commercial calls and pesky messages last year. Power stocks will remain in focus after World Bank said, India is doing extremely well on the electrification front and about 30 million people received electricity between 2010 and 2016, which is much more than any other country in the world. There will be some important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,715.50

10,658.88

10,748.88

BSE Sensex

35,208.14

35,037.32

35,319.39

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

196.73

289.80

284.10

294.25

SBI

151.23

246.50

242.97

249.12

Vedanta 

82.42

285.45

281.83

289.23

Hindalco

77.46

237.85

233.78

240.53

Indian Oil

73.49

164.30

160.50

166.70

 

  • Power Grid has inked a MoU with the Ministry of Power to incur capital expenditure of Rs 25,000 crore for the current fiscal.
  • Lupin has received final approval for its Clobetasol Propionate Ointment USP, 0.05% from the USFDA. 
  • SBI has taken symbolic possession of Rathi Graphic Technologies' factory in Rajasthan.  
  • ONGC has registered 6.3% increase in natural gas production in 2017-18 and is on track to double the output by 2022.
News Analysis