Indian benchmark indices
witnessed a dismal trading session on Tuesday, as investors turned jittery
ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review meet
tomorrow. With the excess liquidity in the banking system, RBI is unlikely to
cut interest rates on Wednesday to tackle a growth slowdown. The central bank
is still grappling with more than $60 billion in excess liquidity after the
government's crackdown on high-denomination notes last year, even after raising
the reverse repurchase rate in April and deploying an array of instruments to
soak up the funds. Sentiments also remained subdued with the report that Indian
companies raised around Rs 33,400 crore in May through private placement of corporate
bonds, a slump of 44% from the year-ago level, for business expansion and
propping up working capital needs. According to latest data available with
markets regulator SEBI, firms garnered a total of Rs 33,389 crore in May 2017,
lower than Rs 59,801 crore raised in the year-ago period. Besides, weak trend
in Asian stocks also weighed on the trading sentiments. However, losses
remained capped with the report that India has surpassed China to secure the
top position among 30 developing countries on ease of doing business. The 2017
Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), now in its 16th edition, ranks the top
30 developing countries for retail investment worldwide and analyses 25
macroeconomic and retail-specific variables. Meanwhile, the progress of the
monsoon continues to be stuck along the
Kochi-Tondi-Agartala-Williamnagar-Kokrajhar axis linking the west coast and
North-East India but it is a matter of a few days before it resumes its
northward journey. Even in Kerala, the rains are yet to reach the northern
districts beyond Ernakulam and Thrissur, according to trends in recorded
rainfall till Monday. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 118.93 points or 0.38% to
31,190.56, while the CNX Nifty was down by 37.95 points or 0.39% to 9,637.15.
The US markets closed lower on
Tuesday, for the second session as market sentiment turned jittery ahead of a
UK general election and uncertainties associated with former Federal Bureau of
Investigation boss James Comey's testimony to the Senate later this week. The
head of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) said that US President
Donald Trump's proposed spending cuts for Central America are ‘not a good sign'
for efforts to reduce immigration from the poor, violent region. On the economy
front, US job openings surged to a record high in April and employers appeared
to have trouble finding suitable workers, pointing to a tightening labor market
that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.
The Labor Department's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or
JOLTS, published also suggests that a recent moderation in job growth could be
the result of a skills mismatch rather than easing demand for labor. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average lost 47.81 points or 0.23 percent to 21,136.23, Nasdaq
was down 20.62 points or 0.33 percent to 6,275.06, while S&P 500 edged
lower by 6.77 points or 0.28 percent to 2,429.33.
Crude oil futures made a good bounce
back on Tuesday, finding technical support after sliding below $47 a barrel on
pressure from a diplomatic rift in the Middle East, there were speculation that
recent losses were overdone. Meanwhile, oil ministers assured markets that the
diplomatic rift between Qatar and several Arab states would not undermine the
global pact to tackle the glut in supply. The prices have declined in last
couple of day amid expectations the global supply glut will linger into next
year, as U.S. drillers added rigs for 20 weeks in a row, and with President
Donald Trump reversing bans on Arctic exploration. Benchmark crude oil futures
for July delivery ended up by $0.79 or 1.7 percent to $48.19 on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for July delivery ended higher by 1.17
percent to $50.05 on the ICE.
Snapping
its four-day winning streak, Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against
dollar on Tuesday, due to demand for greenback by banks and importers. Traders
remained on sidelines ahead of the two-day policy review by RBI's monetary
policy committee (MPC) starting today. The street is expecting the MPC to turn
dovish and to be open for a 25 bps cut in interest rates on August 2 if rains
are normal. Investors shrugged off the report that India has surpassed China to
secure the top position among 30 developing countries on ease of doing
business. The rupee sentiment was also hit due a weak domestic equity market.
On the global front, dollar fell below the 110 level against the yen on
Tuesday, hitting a one-and-a-half month low as investor jitters over looming
geopolitical risk events underpinned safe haven demand. Finally, the rupee
ended at 64.42, 6 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.36 on Monday.
The
FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were
net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs
4280.24 crore against gross selling of Rs 4391.98 crore. In the debt segment,
the gross purchase was of Rs 864.33 crore with gross sales of Rs 499.49 crore.
The US markets extended their
weakness and ended lower in the last session after another choppy day of trade,
amid uncertainty ahead of key events later this week, including the U.K.
election, the ECB meeting and former FBI Director James Comey's congressional
testimony. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with some indices trading
in red. There was cautiousness ahead of a barrage of events due in the next two
days. The Indian markets declined in last session with traders taking a
cautious bet ahead of the RBI's monetary policy decision. Today, the start is
likely to remain cautious and all eyes will be on the Monetary Policy Committee
(MPC), headed by RBI Governor Urjit Patel, meeting outcome with general view
that the central bank is likely to hold key rates even as the government is
making a case for a lower interest regime citing low inflation. Traders however
may get some support with NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that the
Goods and Services Tax, to be rolled out next month as the biggest tax reform
since independence, will help India achieve 9 percent growth rate. He said GST
will simplify India's taxation system and help deal with tax evasion. Also, the
Met Department has upgraded the South-West monsoon forecast to 98 per cent of
the long-term average rainfall from 96 per cent earlier. Rainfall during the
June-September monsoon season is expected to be normal, with a high possibility
of all four broad geographical regions receiving evenly distributed rains.
Meanwhile, the government has said that post the abolition of the FIPB,
ministries will have to decide on FDI proposals within 60 days of the
application and any rejection will need concurrence of the DIPP.
Support and Resistance: NSE
(Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
9637.15
|
9608.47
|
9687.57
|
BSE Sensex
|
31190.56
|
31098.63
|
31356.40
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
(in Lacs)
|
Previous close
(Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
SBI
|
123.46
|
287.30
|
284.95
|
291.30
|
ITC
|
98.41
|
311.05
|
307.23
|
316.93
|
ICICI Bank
|
97.79
|
318.95
|
317.42
|
320.77
|
Tata Motors
|
80.17
|
461.00
|
450.95
|
477.70
|
Vedanta
|
68.77
|
229.40
|
226.87
|
231.67
|
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