Indian equity markets failed to
take any sense of relief with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy decision
to keep the repo rate unchanged on Wednesday, as both Sensex and Nifty ended in
red, breaching their crucial psychological level of 35,900 and 10,800
respectively. The RBI on expected lines kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%,
taking into account easing global crude prices, benign inflation and moderation
in economic growth. The start of the day was pessimistic, as the trade was
impacted by Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the country's
economy is likely to bounce back during the fourth quarter at a faster rate to
match the overall projection for the current fiscal, but, he added that the
economy is unlikely to recover in the third quarter from the slow pace during
the last quarter. Traders reacted negatively to the private report showing that
the sudden move to demonetise a bulk of Indian currency in circulation and the
deteriorating agrarian distress in the country have exposed the consequences of
financial exclusion. Some worries also came with another private report stating
that listed companies accounted for a little less than a third of the corporate
tax in FY18, down from nearly 40% in FY17 and 49% a decade ago. However, fall
in the markets remained restricted, after India's services sector activity
strengthen further in month of November, amid an upsurge in demand. As per the
survey report, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index
rose to 53.7 in November from 52.2 in October. Further, the Nikkei India
Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures both manufacturing and services --
too improved to 54.5 in November from 53.0 in October. Adding some relief,
Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) said that India's engineering
exports are likely to touch $80 billion this fiscal on account of healthy
growth in key markets, including the US and Europe. Some support also came with
Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that the PMI data
for November shows overall strong increase in business activity as well as
demand and should augur well for economic growth in October-December quarter. Finally,
the BSE Sensex plunged 249.90 points or 0.69% to 35,884.41, while the CNX Nifty
was down by 86.60 points or 0.80% to 10,782.90.
The US markets were closed on
Wednesday for former President Bush's Funeral.
Crude oil futures ended lower on
Wednesday on report that oil production from the Organisation of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose by 40,000 barrels a day to 33.08 million
barrels in November from a month earlier. Output in Iran fell because of US
sanctions on the country's energy sector, but production rose in Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates. Further, cautiousness too prevailed as global
investors awaited clarity on a possible output cut by major producers gathering
in Vienna. The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee, or JMMC,
which includes the OPEC member Saudi Arabia and nonmember Russia, met on
Wednesday. It recommended a production cut from the September-October output
levels. OPEC will hold its official meeting on Thursday, with another key
meeting between the group's members and nonmember allies to be held Friday.
Benchmark crude oil futures for January declined 36 cents or 0.7 percent to
settle $52.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. February Brent
crude dropped 52 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $61.56 a barrel on London's
Intercontinental Exchange.
Indian
rupee ended marginally higher against US dollar on Wednesday as exporters and
banks stepped up selling of the American currency. Traders took support with a
monthly survey indicating that the country's services sector activity in
November expanded at the quickest pace since July, driven by new work orders
and favourable market conditions, which in turn led to a continued rise in
jobs. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index
rose to a four-month high of 53.7 in November, from 52.2 in October. However,
gains were limited as some anxiety came with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv
Kumar's statement that the country's economy is likely to bounce back during
the fourth quarter at a faster rate to match the overall projection for the
current fiscal, but, he added that the economy is unlikely to recover in the
third quarter from the slow pace during the last quarter. Meanwhile, Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its
December policy review. The reverse repo rate has also been maintained at 6.25
per cent. On the global front, dollar edged up on Wednesday but remained under
pressure as an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve caused concern
about a possible U.S. recession. Finally, the rupee ended at 70.46, 3 paise
stronger from its previous close of 70.49 on Tuesday.
The FIIs as per Wednesday's data
were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 5404.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 5377.08 crore, while
in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 984.98 crore with gross sales
of Rs 563.63 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, gross selling was of Rs
0.22 crore against no buying.
The US markets were closed on
Wednesday for the national day of mourning for former President George H. W.
Bush. Asian markets were trading in red on Thursday continuing a decline in
markets worldwide ahead of a closely watched meeting by the OPEC. Besides,
Canadian authorities arrested a top executive of Chinese tech giant Huawei
Technologies, fanning fears of further tensions between China and US. Indian
markets ended lower for second straight session on Wednesday, with Sensex and
Nifty settling below their crucial 35,900 and 10,800 levels, respectively, amid
weak global cues. Besides, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy
rate unchanged, maintaining status quot. Today, the markets are likely to make
a gap-down opening tracking weakness in other Asian counterparts amid growing
uncertainty about the global economy. Investors will be looking ahead for cues
from a closely watched the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) meeting and the outcome of assembly elections in five states. However,
traders may take some support with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) cutting H2FY19 inflation forecast to 2.7-3.2 percent from
3.9-4.5 percent earlier. It pegged H1 FY20 inflation at 3.8-4.2 percent.
Moreover, Deputy Governor Viral Acharya said there is more than enough
liquidity in the system at the moment, but the Reserve Bank of India will step
in as a lender of last resort if necessary. Besides, the RBI has retained its
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4 percent and
said growth will accelerate further to 7.5 percent in first half of 2019-20,
driven by acceleration in investment activity. Meanwhile, the Union Cabinet is
expected to approve a policy to boost exports of agriculture commodities such
as tea, coffee and rice and increase the country's share in global agri trade.
The proposed policy would focus on all aspects of agricultural exports
including modernising infrastructure, standardisation of products, streamlining
regulations, curtailing knee-jerk decisions, and focusing on research and
development activities. There will be some buzz in the port sector stocks with
report that rating agency ICRA maintained stable year-end outlook for the port
sector, terming rebound in coal volumes and steady progress on the Sagarmala
project positive for Indian port sector players in the medium term. Also, there
will be some reaction in non-banking finance companies' (NBFCs') stocks with
Crisil's report that difficulties in getting funding will halve the non-bank
lenders' asset growth to around 10% in the second half of the current fiscal.
It added that the asset quality of retail loans is resilient, but the NBFCs'
non-retail book has to be monitored for potential stress.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
10,782.90
|
10,746.88
|
10,819.98
|
BSE Sensex
|
35,884.41
|
35,758.60
|
36,029.44
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Yes Bank
|
522.90
|
173.40
|
170.92
|
177.17
|
Sun Pharma
|
488.92
|
412.95
|
394.55
|
438.30
|
Tata Motors
|
149.61
|
169.20
|
167.53
|
171.93
|
SBI
|
148.94
|
280.15
|
277.07
|
283.22
|
Hindalco Industries
|
128.76
|
221.35
|
217.63
|
227.73
|
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