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NSE Intra-day chart (05 December 2018)
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Market Commentary 06 December 2018
Markets to make negative start on weak other Asian cues


Indian equity markets failed to take any sense of relief with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy decision to keep the repo rate unchanged on Wednesday, as both Sensex and Nifty ended in red, breaching their crucial psychological level of 35,900 and 10,800 respectively. The RBI on expected lines kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%, taking into account easing global crude prices, benign inflation and moderation in economic growth. The start of the day was pessimistic, as the trade was impacted by Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the country's economy is likely to bounce back during the fourth quarter at a faster rate to match the overall projection for the current fiscal, but, he added that the economy is unlikely to recover in the third quarter from the slow pace during the last quarter. Traders reacted negatively to the private report showing that the sudden move to demonetise a bulk of Indian currency in circulation and the deteriorating agrarian distress in the country have exposed the consequences of financial exclusion. Some worries also came with another private report stating that listed companies accounted for a little less than a third of the corporate tax in FY18, down from nearly 40% in FY17 and 49% a decade ago. However, fall in the markets remained restricted, after India's services sector activity strengthen further in month of November, amid an upsurge in demand. As per the survey report, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index rose to 53.7 in November from 52.2 in October. Further, the Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures both manufacturing and services -- too improved to 54.5 in November from 53.0 in October. Adding some relief, Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) said that India's engineering exports are likely to touch $80 billion this fiscal on account of healthy growth in key markets, including the US and Europe. Some support also came with Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that the PMI data for November shows overall strong increase in business activity as well as demand and should augur well for economic growth in October-December quarter. Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged 249.90 points or 0.69% to 35,884.41, while the CNX Nifty was down by 86.60 points or 0.80% to 10,782.90.


The US markets were closed on Wednesday for former President Bush's Funeral.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday on report that oil production from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose by 40,000 barrels a day to 33.08 million barrels in November from a month earlier. Output in Iran fell because of US sanctions on the country's energy sector, but production rose in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Further, cautiousness too prevailed as global investors awaited clarity on a possible output cut by major producers gathering in Vienna. The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee, or JMMC, which includes the OPEC member Saudi Arabia and nonmember Russia, met on Wednesday. It recommended a production cut from the September-October output levels. OPEC will hold its official meeting on Thursday, with another key meeting between the group's members and nonmember allies to be held Friday. Benchmark crude oil futures for January declined 36 cents or 0.7 percent to settle $52.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. February Brent crude dropped 52 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $61.56 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended marginally higher against US dollar on Wednesday as exporters and banks stepped up selling of the American currency. Traders took support with a monthly survey indicating that the country's services sector activity in November expanded at the quickest pace since July, driven by new work orders and favourable market conditions, which in turn led to a continued rise in jobs. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index rose to a four-month high of 53.7 in November, from 52.2 in October. However, gains were limited as some anxiety came with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the country's economy is likely to bounce back during the fourth quarter at a faster rate to match the overall projection for the current fiscal, but, he added that the economy is unlikely to recover in the third quarter from the slow pace during the last quarter. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its December policy review. The reverse repo rate has also been maintained at 6.25 per cent. On the global front, dollar edged up on Wednesday but remained under pressure as an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve caused concern about a possible U.S. recession. Finally, the rupee ended at 70.46, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 70.49 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5404.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 5377.08 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 984.98 crore with gross sales of Rs 563.63 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, gross selling was of Rs 0.22 crore against no buying.


The US markets were closed on Wednesday for the national day of mourning for former President George H. W. Bush. Asian markets were trading in red on Thursday continuing a decline in markets worldwide ahead of a closely watched meeting by the OPEC. Besides, Canadian authorities arrested a top executive of Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies, fanning fears of further tensions between China and US. Indian markets ended lower for second straight session on Wednesday, with Sensex and Nifty settling below their crucial 35,900 and 10,800 levels, respectively, amid weak global cues. Besides, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate unchanged, maintaining status quot. Today, the markets are likely to make a gap-down opening tracking weakness in other Asian counterparts amid growing uncertainty about the global economy. Investors will be looking ahead for cues from a closely watched the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting and the outcome of assembly elections in five states. However, traders may take some support with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cutting H2FY19 inflation forecast to 2.7-3.2 percent from 3.9-4.5 percent earlier. It pegged H1 FY20 inflation at 3.8-4.2 percent. Moreover, Deputy Governor Viral Acharya said there is more than enough liquidity in the system at the moment, but the Reserve Bank of India will step in as a lender of last resort if necessary. Besides, the RBI has retained its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4 percent and said growth will accelerate further to 7.5 percent in first half of 2019-20, driven by acceleration in investment activity. Meanwhile, the Union Cabinet is expected to approve a policy to boost exports of agriculture commodities such as tea, coffee and rice and increase the country's share in global agri trade. The proposed policy would focus on all aspects of agricultural exports including modernising infrastructure, standardisation of products, streamlining regulations, curtailing knee-jerk decisions, and focusing on research and development activities. There will be some buzz in the port sector stocks with report that rating agency ICRA maintained stable year-end outlook for the port sector, terming rebound in coal volumes and steady progress on the Sagarmala project positive for Indian port sector players in the medium term. Also, there will be some reaction in non-banking finance companies' (NBFCs') stocks with Crisil's report that difficulties in getting funding will halve the non-bank lenders' asset growth to around 10% in the second half of the current fiscal. It added that the asset quality of retail loans is resilient, but the NBFCs' non-retail book has to be monitored for potential stress.


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  • ITC's leading health and hygiene brand -- Savlon has introduced Braille enabled packs of Savlon Antiseptic liquid. 
  • NTPC has participated for 85 MW Solar capacities and has won the entire capacity bid by it, at a levelised tariff of Rs 3.02/unit, applicable for 25 years. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has reported 12.6% fall in its production to 135,946 vehicles in November 2018, as compared to 155,568 vehicles in November 2017. 
  • Tech Mahindra has joined hands with H2O.ai to establish a Center of Excellence to provide artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions to enterprise customers.
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