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NSE Intra-day chart (29 September 2017)
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Market Commentary 03 October 2017
Markets to get a positive start of the crucial week

Erasing most of their early gains, Indian equity benchmarks ended flat on Friday, as traders opted to book profit at higher levels in last leg of trade ahead of long weekend. Traders also remained on sidelines ahead of some economic data slated to be released in next week. Though, markets started off on optimistic note as sentiments remained up-beat with statement of Niti Aayog member Bibek Debroy, who is also Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council that while there may be some minor problems with the economy, it was nothing to be worried about. Domestic bourses extended their gains to reclaim their crucial 31,500 (Sensex) and 9,850 (Nifty) levels, as traders took some encouragement with report that the government will stick to its borrowing and fiscal deficit targets for this fiscal, indicating that it has no plans to relax spending goals to prop up growth as of now. The finance ministry on Thursday released borrowing calendar for the second half of FY18, indicating a gross borrowing of Rs 2.08 lakh crore, which is in line with the target laid out in the Budget. Reports that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in the first two months have met the target and going forward the revenue will see further surge, too aided sentiments. However, benchmarks took U-turn from high point of the day as market participants booked almost all of their early gains to end flat. Sentiments turned pessimistic on report that Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) continued to hit participatory notes (P-notes) investments in month of August too. The share of foreign portfolio investments (FPI) in domestic capital markets through P-notes dropped to seven and a half year low of Rs 1.25 lakh crore at August- end from Rs 1.35 lakh crore at the end of July. Some cautiousness also crept with credit rating agency Icra's report that Reserve Bank of India is likely to leave policy rates unchanged in the forthcoming policy review next month as it expects a spike in retail inflation going ahead. Meanwhile, the Centre plans to borrow Rs 2.08 lakh crore from the market in the second half of 2017-18, reiterating the government's commitment to meet the fiscal deficit target of 3.2 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 1.24 points to 31,283.72, while the CNX Nifty was up by 19.65 points or 0.20% to 9,788.60.


The US markets closed higher on Monday, as equities resumed a steady run-up that could set the tone for the final three months of 2017. President Donald Trump addressed a mass shooting in Las Vegas that left scores dead and injured. Trump described the shooting, which killed at least 58 and left more than 400 casualties, as an act of pure evil. On the economy front, construction outlays jumped in August, led by a surge in spending for public works projects. Spending increased 0.5% during the month, and stood 2.5% higher than a year ago. Outlays were at a seasonally adjusted annual $1.22 trillion rate in August, while July's initial tally was revised up to $1.212 trillion. Private construction spending rose 0.4% in August, while public outlays jumped 0.7%, driven by a 3.5% increase in educational construction projects. Public construction spending has stagnated for years. Meanwhile, residential construction spending was up only 0.5% for the month, but was 11.3% higher than its year-ago level. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to 60.8 in September from 58.8%, hitting the highest level since 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 152.51 points or 0.68 percent to 22,557.60, the Nasdaq gained 20.76points or 0.32 percent to 6,516.72, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 9.76 points or 0.39 percent to 2,529.12. 


Crude oil futures settled lower on Monday, amid signs of an uptick in crude output as data showed Opec oil output rose last month. As per the report Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 50,000 barrels a day in September as the cartel's overall compliance with its production-cut agreement fell to 86%. Production in Libya rebounded 30,000 barrels a day to 920,000 barrels in September as the Sharara field restarted after a halt of more than two weeks while Nigerian output increased by 20,000 barrels to 1.77 million barrels a day. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended lower by $1.59 or 1.1 percent at $50.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery lost 0.69 cents to $56.10 a barrel on the ICE.


Continuing strong recovery momentum for the second day, Indian rupee ended considerably stronger against dollar on Friday, as banks and exporters continued to sell the US currency amid persistent capital inflows. Sentiments were upbeat on reports that the government will stick to its borrowing and fiscal deficit targets for this fiscal, indicating that it has no plans to relax spending goals to prop up growth as of now. Some optimism also came with the statement of Niti Aayog member Bibek Debroy that while there may be some minor problems with the economy, it was nothing to be worried about. Moreover, gains in the domestic equity markets too helped the Indian currency. On the global front, Pound weakened against dollar on Friday, after data showed that the UK economic growth expanded at a slower pace year-on-year in the second quarter, than previously estimated. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.27, 24 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.51 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7745.86 crore against gross selling of Rs 12423.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 996.39 crore with gross sales of Rs 2178.21 crore.


The US markets extended their gains in last session, continuing their upmove to the new week, reacting to a report from the Institute for Supply Management showing an unexpected acceleration in the rate of growth in manufacturing activity in the month of September. The Asian markets too have made mostly a positive start as the US manufacturing report has bolstered optimism on economic growth and the Japanese market is heading for its highest close in more than two years on weaker yen. The Indian markets paring all their early gains made a flat closing in the last session, as investors adopted a cautious stance before going for a long weekend. Today, the markets are likely to get a positive start on sanguine global cues, though all eyes will be on RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting starting today. The government expects a helping hand from the RBI in the form of interest rate cut in the policy review to boost growth, though the general expectation is that central bank will vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6 per cent, with inflation firming up and rupee coming under pressure. Traders will be getting some support with Finance Minister FM Arun Jaitley's indication that the government would consider reducing the goods and services tax slabs and easing compliance burden for small taxpayers once revenues from GST better those from the previous tax regime. Meanwhile, Industry body Assocham has urged the government to relax fiscal deficit targets and boost public expenditure as a means to accelerate India's economic growth, which slipped to 5.7 percent in the June quarter. Former RBI Governor C Rangarajan too has said that the government needs to “pick up very fast” to be able to maintain a healthy annual growth. There will be some concern in gems and jewellary segment stocks on report that gems and jewellery exports contracted 8.12 per cent to $13.5 billion during April-August this year. There will be buzz from the primary market too as the SBI Life Insurance will make its debut on today. The Rs 8,400 crore IPO was subscribed 3.58 times.


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