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Market Commentary 02 May 2019
Markets to make a pessimistic start amid weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks recovered most of their losses to end Tuesday's trading session on flat note, with Sensex and Nifty closing slightly lower. After a cautious start, key indices remained under a grip of bears during whole day, affected by India Meteorological Department's (IMD) statement that pre-monsoon rainfall from March to April has recorded 27% deficiency. The IMD recorded 43.3 millimetres of rainfall across the country from March 1 to April 24 as against the normal precipitation of 59.6 millimetres. Anxiety remained among investors, amid a report indicating that the decline in economic growth momentum in October-December quarter of FY19 is likely to continue. As per the report, subdued consumption demand and election related uncertainty is expected to weigh on India's industrial production. Weakness persisted during the second half of the day, with a private report stating that surging global oil prices will pose a first big challenge to India's new government, whoever wins an election now underway, especially as domestic prices have been allowed to lag, meaning consumers are in for a painful surge as they catch up. However, markets managed to stage recovery in the last leg of the trade, supported by Union minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that the country is working on district-based developmental model to achieve aggregate growth. He said if the national growth was at 6% and those of the districts was 4%, the aggregate growth would be 10%. Meanwhile, in order to improve margins and profit, Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) of India has urged engineering exporters to adopt intellectual property rights (IPR). Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 35.78 points or 0.09% to 39,031.55, while the CNX Nifty was down by 6.50 points or 0.06% to 11,748.15.


The US markets ended lower with cut of over half a percent on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dashed traders' hopes for a near-term interest rate cut. Powell said the Fed sees transitory factors contributing to recent low inflation readings. Powell said the Fed would take persistently low inflation into account when setting policy but currently expects inflation to return to the 2 percent objective. The comments from Powell came after the Fed announced its widely expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25 to 2.50 percent for the third consecutive meeting. The central bank said information received since its previous meeting in March showed economic activity rose at a solid rate. After the March meeting, the Fed noted the pace of economic growth had slowed from the solid rate in the fourth quarter. The Fed said in its latest statement that the labor market remains strong but pointed out slower first quarter growth in household spending and business fixed investment. Besides, a report released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected pullback in US construction spending in the month of March. The report said construction spending slumped by 0.9 percent to an annual rate of $1.282 trillion in March after climbing by 0.7 percent to a revised rate of $1.293 trillion in February. However, after reporting weaker than expected job growth in the previous month, payroll processor ADP released a report showing private sector employment jumped by much more than anticipated in the month of April. ADP said private sector employment surged up by 275,000 jobs in April after climbing by an upwardly revised 151,000 jobs in March. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 162.77 points or 0.61 percent to 26430.14, Nasdaq dropped 45.75 points or 0.57 percent to 8049.64 and S&P 500 was down by 22.10 points or 0.75 percent to 2923.73.


Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday after a US government report revealed a nearly 10 million-barrel rise in domestic crude supplies - the biggest weekly climb of the year so far. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies rose by 9.9 million barrels for the week ended April 26. That surpassed the rise of 1.4 million barrels expected by S&P Global Platts. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday had shown an increase of 6.8 million barrels. However, Brent crude ended the session modestly higher, finding continued support from risks to global supplies. Benchmark crude oil futures for June declined 31 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $63.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, July Brent crude added 12 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $72.18 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Continuing its upward momentum for the second day, Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar on Tuesday, amid easing crude prices and weakening of the greenback against some currencies overseas. Trades took encouragement with Union minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that the country is working on district-based developmental model to achieve aggregate growth. He said if the national growth was at 6% and those of the districts was 4%, the aggregate growth would be 10%. Market participants paid no heed towards the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) statement that pre-monsoon rainfall from March to April, a phenomenon critical to agriculture in some parts of the country, has recorded 27 per cent deficiency. On the global front, euro extended gains on Tuesday after first quarter growth numbers for the euro zone were stronger than expectations, dispersing some of the negativity surrounding the outlook for the single currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.56, 46 paise stronger from its previous close of 70.02 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4434.54 crore against gross selling of Rs 4273.13 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 363.83 crore with gross sales of Rs 1650.36 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.24 crore.


The US markets declined on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and reiterated it will stay patient despite a recent patch of soft inflation. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday following weak cues from Wall Street amid markets in Japan and China were shut for holidays. Indian markets recouped early losses to end flat with negative bias on Tuesday with banks coming under heavy selling pressure after Yes Bank reported a massive quarterly loss, hit by rising provisions for bad loans. Markets remain closed on Wednesday on account of International Labour Day. Today, the markets are likely to make a negative start tracking weakness in global markets. Investors will be eyeing manufacturing PMI data to be out later in the day. Traders will be concerned as India Ratings and Research marginally lowered country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for 2019-20 fiscal to 7.3% mainly due to below normal monsoon prediction and loss of momentum in industrial output. It had earlier projected India's GDP growth at 7.5%. However, some respite can come later in the day with the finance ministry's statement that Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection scaled all-time high of over Rs 1.13 lakh crore in April, up from Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the previous month. Total number of summary sales return GSTR-3B filed for the month of March up to April 30 stood at 72.13 lakh. Some support may also come with report that the growth of eight core sectors improved marginally to 4.7% in March 2019 against 4.5% in the same month last year. Meanwhile, markets regulator SEBI has directed National Stock Exchange to pay more than Rs 625 crore with 12% interest from April 1, 2014 in the case of misuse of its co-location facility and barred it from the securities market for six months. SEBI has been probing alleged lapses in high-frequency trading offered through NSE's co-location facility. There will be some buzz in the cement sector stocks with ICRA's report stating that the domestic cement demand is likely to grow by 8% this fiscal which may push the capacity utilisation to 71%. It added that the growth in demand will be driven by a likely 18-20 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of additional production capacity during the fiscal. The auto sector stocks will also be in action, reacting to their monthly sales numbers. There will be some important result reactions too, to keep the markets in action.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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Tata Steel






  • HCL Technologies has partnered with Cherwell Software, LLC, for a product platform that layers the DRYiCE GBP on the Cherwell Service Management platform. 
  • Cipla's wholly owned subsidiary -- Cipla Medpro South Africa has completed closing of transaction and acquired 30% stake in Brandmed. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has introduced powerful 1.5 litre DDIS 225 Diesel Engine with 6-speed manual transmission in the Next Gen Ertiga. 
  • Tata Motors has partnered with Nirma University to provide B.Tech degree to its employees working at the Sanand Plant in Gujarat.
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