Key equity benchmarks started the
first day of financial year 2019-2020 with jubilation, though they ended off
their intraday high points. After a firm start, the markets remained positive
throughout the session, aided by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showing
that India's foreign exchange reserves continued to surge for the third week in
a row, adding $1.029 billion at $406.667 billion in the week to March 22.
Traders were optimistic with Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian's
statement that inflation has remained well under control during the Modi
government's tenure, providing relief to the middle class and the poor. Low
prices, strong monetary policy framework by the RBI and economic reforms have
boosted the domestic consumption in the country. Sentiments also got boost
after the goods and services tax (GST) collections scaled record high of Rs
1.06 lakh crore in March, up from Rs 97,247 crore in the previous month, as
compliance improved amid increased number of returns filed. Total number of
summary sales return GSTR-3B filed for the month of February up to March 31,
stood at 75.95 lakh. However, in the last leg of the trade, key indices trimmed
their gains, as the RBI said that the country's current account deficit (CAD)
widened to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3FY19 from 2.1% a year ago,
primarily due to a higher trade deficit. In absolute terms, India's CAD widened
to $16.9 billion in the October-December 2018 quarter against $13.7 billion in
the year ago quarter. Adding more worries, credit rating agency, India Ratings
and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report showed that declining household
savings may lead to wider current account deficit (CAD) and rise in the
interest rates. Gains also got trimmed, with India's fiscal deficit touching
134.2% of the full-year revised budgeted estimate at the end of February 2019,
mainly due to tepid growth in revenue collections. In absolute term, fiscal
deficit for April-February 2018-19 was Rs 8.51 lakh crore as against the
revised estimate (RE) of Rs 6.34 lakh crore for the entire year. Finally, the
BSE Sensex rose 198.96 points or 0.51% to 38,871.87, while the CNX Nifty was up
by 45.25 points or 0.39% to 11,669.15.
The US markets ended higher with
gains of over a percent on Monday on optimism about US-China trade talks as
well as a positive reaction to upbeat US and Chinese manufacturing data.
Beijing announced that it will continue to suspend additional tariffs on US
vehicles and auto parts after April 1 as a gesture after Washington delayed
tariff hikes on Chinese imports. A delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier Liu
He is headed to Washington later this week for another round of trade talks.
Besides, support also came in after indicating a faster rate of growth in US
manufacturing activity in the month of March, the Institute for Supply
Management (ISM) released a report
showing an unexpected increase by its index of activity in the sector. The ISM
said its purchasing managers index rose to 55.3 in March after falling to 54.2
in February, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the manufacturing
sector. The report said the new orders index climbed to 57.4 in March from 55.5
in February, while the production index ticked up to 55.8 from 54.8. The
employment index also surged up to 57.5 in March from 52.3 in February,
indicating a notable acceleration in the rate of job growth in the
manufacturing sector. The index reached its highest level since November of
2018. Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a Commerce Department report
showing an unexpected decrease in US retail sales in February, as the report
also showed a significant upward revision to the increase in sales in the
previous month. The report said retail sales dipped by 0.2% in February after
climbing by an upwardly revised 0.7% in January. The unexpected drop in retail
sales came despite a rebound in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, which
increased by 0.7% in February after plunging by 1.9% in January. Dow Jones
Industrial Average jumped 329.74 points or 1.27 percent to 26258.42, Nasdaq
gained 99.59 points or 1.29 percent to 7828.91 and S&P 500 was up by 32.79
points or 1.16 percent to 2867.19.
Crude oil futures ended higher on
Monday on signs of tightening supplies and fading worries over global economic
growth. Oil prices remain solidly higher year to date on signs of reduced
global supplies on the back of efforts by major oil producers to curb
production. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and other major oil producers, including Russia, have pledged to curb
crude production by around 1.2 million barrels a day from October levels for
the first half of this year to prop up markets. Benchmark crude oil futures for
May surged $1.45 or 2.4 percent to settle at $61.59 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. June Brent crude gained $1.43 or 2.1 percent to settle at
$69.01 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
India's
currency market was closed on Monday for annual account closing of banks.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10168.17 crore against gross selling
of Rs 6646.69 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs
2504.20 crore with gross sales of Rs 3504.08 crore. Besides, in the hybrid
segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2779.43 crore against gross selling of Rs
0.58 crore.
The US markets rose on Monday as
strong manufacturing data out of the US and China eased worries of a possible
global economic slowdown. Asian markets are trading higher on Tuesday following
overnight gains on Wall Street, as concerns over a possible global economic
slowdown eased. Indian markets extended their northward journey for third
straight session on Monday, with Sensex closing above 39,000 mark for the first
time, amid firm cues from Asian peers. Today, the markets are likely to open in
green mirroring positive global cues amid easing growth concerns. Investors
will be eyeing data of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing for
March to be out later in the day. Traders will be getting encouragement with
report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will again swap up to $5 billion to
infuse durable liquidity in the system, a month after the first swaps saw a
massive response from banks. Market participants offered up to $16.31 billion
against the notified amount of $5 billion in the auction held on March 26. The
next auction for three-year tenure will be held on April 23. Some support may
also come with a private report that the government has been able to contain
its fiscal deficit around 3.4% of the GDP in 2018-2019 by resorting to
withdrawals/cash support from public accounts and savings on expenditure.
However, there may be some cautiousness with the Commerce Ministry's data
showing that the growth of eight core sectors slowed down to 2.1% in February
2019 as compared to 5.4% in February 2018, due to fall in output of crude oil
and refinery products. Production of crude oil and refinery products contracted
by 6.1%, and 0.8%, respectively, in February. Meanwhile, markets regulator, the
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed amendments to norms
governing Self Regulatory Organisations, including recognising such entities on
a nomination basis. There will be some buzz in the banking sector stocks with
report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has changed the disclosure norms
for banks on material divergences on provisioning, stating that banks will now
have to disclose their provisions if the divergence found is more than 10 per
cent of the bank's profit before provisioning and contingencies. Besides,
rating agency Crisil said that system wide bad loans will improve by 180 basis
points to 8.5% in March 2020 from FY19 levels on slower slippages, and the
state-run banks will turn profitable for the first time in four years. It added
that the banking system will close FY19 with gross non- performing assets of
10.3%. There will be some reaction in auto sector stocks with report that auto
majors Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai and Mahindra & Mahindra reported single
digit sales growth in the financial year ended March 31, as slowdown hit
passenger vehicles demand for almost nine months of the year.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
11,669.15
|
11,629.90
|
11,723.25
|
BSE Sensex
|
38,871.87
|
38,748.55
|
39,055.38
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Tata Motors
|
463.89
|
187.35
|
179.22
|
192.62
|
Yes Bank
|
278.08
|
275.90
|
273.13
|
279.33
|
NTPC
|
267.17
|
135.10
|
133.27
|
137.22
|
State Bank of India
|
223.72
|
322.75
|
319.98
|
326.58
|
ONGC
|
206.05
|
157.25
|
155.05
|
160.20
|
L&T is aiming more than $1 billion revenue from its newly launched new-age technology platform L&T Nxt in the next five to seven years.
Infosys has completed the formation of a joint venture with Hitachi, Panasonic Corporation and Pasona Inc., strategically enhancing its presence in Japan.
ONGC has reported a record 6.5 per cent jump in natural gas production to 25.9 billion cubic meters in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2019.
M&M has reported auto sales performance for the financial year ended March 31, 2019 which stood at 6,08,596 vehicles, compared to 5,49,153 vehicles during FY18, registering a growth of 11%.