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Market Commentary 02 March 2017
Markets to extend jubilation on positive global cues


Snapping two days losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks staged an enthusiastic performance on Wednesday, by rallying over half a percent and breaking the important psychological levels in their northward journey as a much stronger-than-expected quarterly economic growth lifted sentiments. India's Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) of financial year 2016-17 (FY17) grew at 7%, allaying fears of any major effect of demonetisation though it was the lowest expansion in four quarters. The Q3 numbers not only made India the fastest-growing large economy in the world but also helped the Central Statistics Office (CSO) retain its earlier projection (in first advance estimates) for full-year GDP growth at 7.1% in the second advance estimates released on Tuesday. The market sentiments were also underpinned by a private survey indicating that Indian manufacturing sector expanded marginally in February as a rebound in export demand contributed to a stronger expansion of total new orders. The Nikkei Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) -- an indicator of manufacturing activity -- increased to 50.7 in February, up from 50.4 in January, as output and order books rose at accelerated rates. However, in the early deals there was some cautiousness as CSO has actually forecast a greater slide in gross value added (GVA), suggesting that deceleration is sharper than what the headline GDP growth numbers suggest. The CSO data shows that growth in GVA, which is GDP minus net taxes, will slow down to 6.7% in 2016-17 or 1.1% lower than 7.8% GVA growth in 2015-16. GVA serves as a more realistic proxy to measure changes in the aggregate value of goods and services produced in the economy. The demonetisation effect and the resultant slowdown in household spending and corporate investment may well be hiding in the steeper fall in GVA growth estimates compared to GDP.  Furthermore, the growth of eight core sectors has decelerated to 3.4% in January compared to 5.7% in the same month last year, thanks to plummeting output in three key segments - cement, fertilisers and refinery products.  Meanwhile, information technology (IT) stocks surged after the US President Donald Trump's first speech to US congress was seen more restrained than the harsh rhetoric seen during his pre-election speeches. The speech did not have any comment on visa issues that may hit domestic IT firms. Instead, the US President said the US immigration should be based on a merit-based system, rather than relying on lower-skilled immigrants. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 241.17 points or 0.84% to 28984.49, while the CNX Nifty was up by 66.20 points or 0.75% to 8,945.80.

 

The US markets closed higher on Wednesday, as investors welcomed President Donald Trump's conciliatory tone during his address to a joint session of Congress, despite a lack of details on his economic plans. Trump delivered his address to Congress after the market's close Tuesday. In what many saw as a rather reserved speech, the US president said he would push for around $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, and promised ‘massive tax relief' for the middle class and tax cuts for corporations. Otherwise, the speech was lacking in firm details about his economic plans. Stocks even rose slightly higher following the release of the Fed's Beige Book, which pointed out that business optimism has cooled a bit since the election. It said businesses were generally optimistic about the near term but to a somewhat lesser degree than in the prior report. On the economy front, a report on personal income and outlays showed that the cost of goods and services outpaced household income, with the year-over-year inflation rising to the highest level since 2012. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 303.31 points or 1.46 percent to 21,115.55, Nasdaq was up 78.59 points or 1.35 percent to 5,904.03, while S&P 500 gained 32.32 points or 1.37 percent to 2,395.96.

 

Crude oil futures declined on Wednesday reacting to the inventory data, as stockpiles surging for the eighth straight week swelled to a record high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that crude oil inventories rose by 1.5 million for the week ending February 24, less than forecast but touched a record high of 520.2 million. Gasoline inventories decreased by 546.00 barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 0.925 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery declined by $0.18 or 0.3 percent to $53.83 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended lower by $0.13 at $56.38 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Wednesday on account of sustained demand for dollar from banks and importers. Sentiments remained dampened with a report that India's fiscal deficit touched Rs 5.64 lakh crore at the end of January, 105.7 percent of the full-year target, mainly due to lower realisation of non-tax revenue. In the Budget presented on February 1, the government had retained the fiscal deficit target at 3.5 per cent of GDP. The rupee sentiments were also hit as the growth of eight core sectors decelerated to 3.4% in January compared to 5.7% in the same month last year, thanks to plummeting output in three key segments - cement, fertilisers and refinery products. On the global front, dollar ticked up on Wednesday as Federal Reserve policy-setters fanned expectations of a rate hike this month, while US President Donald Trump offered Congress little details on his stimulus as some investors had expected. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.82, 13 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.69 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9316.63 crore against gross selling of Rs 8282.56 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1032.85 crore with gross sales of Rs 829.21 crore.

 

The US markets rallied in last session with all the major averages climbing to new record closing highs, in a positive reaction to President Donald Trump's address to a joint session of Congress. Traders were also reacting to indications of a jump in the chance of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month. The Asian markets have made a positive start tailing the overnight cues from the Wall Street. Japan's Topix jumped 1.1 percent, to the highest since Dec. 18, 2015 as the yen weakened against the dollar. The Indian markets went for a rally in last session reacting to the surprisingly good GDP numbers for the third quarter. Today, the start is likely to remain in green on supportive global cues. Traders will be getting some support with a hedge fund investor survey that investors are likely to remain focused on exposure to emerging markets in 2017, particularly on Asia-Pacific and India. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that the Q3 GDP data was substantially impacted by demonetization, adding that Indian economic growth is likely to pick up further in coming quarters and that GDP number belies exaggerated claim by many that rural sector was in distress. In other positive cues for the market Moody's Investors Service has said that demonetisation will be credit positive for India as it is likely to reduce tax avoidance and corruption. The agency however projected growth to slow to 6.4 percent in the January-March quarter, from 7 percent in the previous three months. The PSU oil marketing companies will be in action, as the price of non-subsidised LPG was raised by Rs 86 per cylinder, the steepest such hike ever in India, in line with the rise in global LPG product prices. The cost of aviation turbine fuel, too, has been raised by Rs 214 per kilolitre to Rs 54,293.38 per kilolitre.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

8945.80

8909.33

8971.53

BSE Sensex

28984.49

28862.72

29067.72

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Hindalco

190.44

189.25

185.23

192.63

ICICI Bank

181.66

279.10

277.25

280.95

IDEA

167.00

113.25

111.53

115.43

ITC

145.78

268.50

264.03

271.33

ONGC

112.43

193.85

192.60

195.90

 
  • Wipro has unveiled a new IoT-based solution for wind parks and wind turbine manufacturers that leverages the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Windpark Manager 4.0.
  • Mahindra Tractors, a farm equipment sector of Mahindra & Mahindra, has recorded its tractor sales numbers for February 2017.
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm - Reliance Jio Infocomm has collaborated with Samsung to further improve its quality of LTE services in India.
  • Maruti Suzuki India has reported a jump of 10.9% in total sales at 130,280 units in February 2017.
News Analysis