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Market Commentary 01 December 2016
Markets to make a green start of the final month of calendar year


Indian benchmark indices staged an astonishing performance on the last day of the month by vehemently rallying close to a percentage points in the session and re-conquering their psychological levels. While hopes of strong GDP for September quarter helped investors' sentiment, the side-effects of demonetisation continued to have a bearing on the market. The general expectation is that economic growth accelerated to 7.5% in the September quarter from 7.1% in the June quarter but lower than 7.9% growth posted for the March quarter. Sentiments were buoyant in the second half of trade after OPEC ministers gathering in Vienna expressed renewed optimism about salvaging a deal to cut oil production and prop up global prices. The group needs to resolve differences between its three biggest producers -- Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq -- at loggerheads over how to share the burden of a plan to reduce supply for the first time since 2008. Under an Algerian proposal put forward on Tuesday, the 14 members of OPEC would cut production to 32.5 million barrels per day from their October level of 33.6 million. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Wednesday that OPEC was close to clinching a deal to limit oil output, adding Riyadh would agree to Iran freezing production at pre-sanctions levels. The comments could be seen as a compromise by Riyadh, which in recent weeks insisted that Iran fully participate in any cut. On the domestic front, Investors' confidence also remained upbeat with a private report indicating that government is expected to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3 per cent for the next financial year on account of additional revenue from penalty on black money and deposits under the income disclosure. Finally, the BSE Sensex rallied 258.80 points or 0.98% to 26652.81, while the CNX Nifty rose 82.35 points or 1.01% to 8,224.50.


The US markets closed mostly lower on Wednesday, as an early session rally led by a surge in the energy sector sputtered out in late trade. Crude oil posted its biggest one-day pop since February, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut production levels. The late-afternoon claw-back by equities coincided with the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which showed a modest economic expansion without any tailwind from the presidential election. There was no sign of any postelection euphoria in the Federal Reserve's latest survey of current economic conditions released. On the economy front, private employers hired far more workers than expected in November, suggesting the pace of hiring picked up after several months of moving sideways. Payroll processor ADP reported that 216,000 net new jobs were added in the month. October's original tally of 147,000 was revised down substantially, to 119,000. The Nasdaq was down 56.24 points or 1.05 percent to 5,323.68, S&P 500 dropped 5.85 points or 0.27 percent to 2,198.81, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.98 points or 0.01 percent to 19,123.58.


Crude oil futures surged on Wednesday, recording the biggest one-day gain in nearly 10 months, in reaction to news of OPEC's agreement to cut production. OPEC ministers revealed the cartel has agreed to reduce production by about 1.2 million barrels to 32.5 million barrels a day. The agreement marks the first time since 2008 that OPEC has agreed to curtail production and comes as a supply glut has weighed on prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery surged by $4.21 or 9.3 percent to $49.44 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for January delivery ended higher by $4.07 or 8.8 percent at $50.45 on the ICE.


Indian rupee appreciated for second consecutive session on Wednesday, due to selling of greenback by banks and importers. Sentiments remained up-beat on expectation of positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to be released later in the day. The general expectation is that economic growth accelerated to 7.5 per cent in the September quarter from 7.1 per cent in the June quarter but lower than 7.9 per cent growth posted for the March quarter. However, dollar strengthened against some currencies overseas following stronger-than-expected third-quarter US growth data, higher housing prices in September and a sharp rebound in consumer confidence in November capped the rupee gains. On the global front, dollar edged up against the yen on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields resumed their rise after three down days, with the greenback on track for its strongest performance against the yen in seven years. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.38, 28 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.66 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4715.12 crore against gross sell of Rs 5367.87 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1432.18 crore with gross sales of Rs 2420.18 crore.


The US markets made mostly a lower closing with traders reacting to news of OPEC's agreement to cut oil production. They even overlooked ADP report showing stronger than expected private sector job growth in November. The Asian markets have made an all green start, led by the Japanese market that is up by over 2 percent in early oil producers' deal to cut global oil output fueled gains in energy shares. The Indian markets gained momentum in the last leg of trade along with other global markets in last session, on hopes of OPEC nations reaching a deal. Today, the start of the final month of calendar year is likely to be in green, traders will be reacting to lots of economic data announced after the market hours yesterday. The Indian economy remained the world's fastest growing major economy in the September quarter. GDP data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed the economy grew an annual 7.3% in the July-September quarter, marginally faster than previous quarter's expansion of 7.1%; though it was lower than the expectation of 7.5%. Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has said that GDP growth numbers for the first half of the current fiscal have revealed a good and consistent performance but lot of uncertainty remains on the outlook for the second half. In other positive development, the combined index of eight core industries surged to its six months high at 6.6 percent compared to October 2015, led by steel, cement and petroleum refinery. In other economic development India's fiscal deficit in October stood at 79.3 per cent of budget estimates, against 83.9 per cent in September. There will be some buzz in the PSU oil marketing companies, as they raised the price of petrol by 13 paise a litre and cut the price of diesel by 12 paise a litre. Some buzz can be seen in tourism related stocks, as the Cabinet approved the new liberalised visa policy for foreigners. Auto companies too will be in focus as they will start announcing their monthly sales numbers.


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Axis Bank





  • Lupin's US subsidiary - Lupin Pharmaceuticals, Inc., has received final approval for its Armodafinil Tablets 50 mg, 150 mg, 200 mg and 250 mg from the United States Food and Drug Administration.
  • Malaysia's Axiata is reportedly looking to sell its 20% stake in Idea Cellular as it believes the telecom provider's valuation will remain subdued for at least the next three years.
  • Yes Bank has launched SIMsePAY, a unique innovation that allows any account holder to do money transfers, pay utility bills and other mobile banking services, without the need for smart phones or Internet.
  • Tata Power has reported 25.60% rise in its net profit at Rs 447.34 crore for the quarter under review as compared to Rs 356.16 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Maruti Suzuki India has achieved another milestone with its recently launched product in the compact SUV space, the Maruti Suzuki Vitara Brezza.
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