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NSE Intra-day chart (31 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 01 November 2017
Markets to make a positive start on supportive cues

Indian equity benchmarks ended the sluggish day of trade with marginal losses on Tuesday, as traders remained cautious with a report from domestic rating agency Care Ratings, which said that employment generation has not kept pace with GDP expansion and termed it as a 'major concern'. Such a scenario calls for proactive measures from government and the recent infrastructure building efforts will help, it noted and said that employment growth has not kept pace with economic growth. Traders overlooked report that the government has extended the last dates of filing GSTR-2 and GSTR-3. The last date for filing of GSTR-2 for the month of July, 2017 is 31st October, 2017, while the last date for filing of GSTR-3 for the month of July, 2017 stands extended to 11th December, 2017. Besides, Finance Secretary Ashok Lavasa statement that India's fiscal deficit is on the path of recovery, with showing an ease of about 90 percent of the budget estimate for the full year at the end of September from the level of 96.1 percent at the end of August, too failed to provide support. However, losses remained capped with SBI Research in its latest report accessing that Indian economy is likely to improve to 6 percent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2017-18, as against 5.7 percent growth in the first quarter of FY18. It also said that Q2 growth might be in the lower end of 6-6.5 percent band with an upward bias. Traders also took some comfort with report that India is expecting a significant improvement in ranking in the World Bank's ease of doing business index on the back of several steps taken by the government like bankruptcy law and host of other reforms. Traders also got some solace with few foreign investment banks, who have started revising upwards their targets for the benchmark indices on the back of bank recapitalisation programme, infrastructure push and continued inflow of domestic savings into equities and said that best is yet to come for Sensex and Nifty. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 53.03 points or 0.16% to 33,213.13, while the CNX Nifty was down by 28.35 points or 0.27% to 10,335.30.

The US markets ended modestly higher on Tuesday, reflecting a positive reaction to the latest batch of earnings news. Overall trading activity was relatively light, and traders are looking ahead to key economic data and earnings news in the coming days. The closely watched monthly jobs report due to be released on Friday is likely to be in focus, with employment expected to jump by 300,000 jobs in October. In economy news report from the Conference Board showed a substantial improvement in consumer confidence in the month of October. Its consumer confidence index jumped to 125.9 in October from an upwardly revised 120.6 in September. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 121.0 from the 119.8 originally reported for the previous month. With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer confidence index reached its highest level since hitting 128.6 in December of 2000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 28.50 points or 0.1 percent to 23,377.24, the Nasdaq gained 28.71 points or 0.4 percent to 6,727.67, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 2.43 points or 0.1 percent to 2,575.26.

Crude oil futures extending their bull run ended at eight month high on Tuesday, as investors looked ahead to inventory data expected to show crude supplies fell last week amid ongoing optimism that Opec will agree to extend output cuts. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said that "OPEC welcomes the clear guidance from the crown prince of Saudi Arabia on the need to achieve stable oil markets and sustain it beyond the first quarter of 2018." Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said last week, the kingdom would support extending output cuts in order to rid the market of excess supplies. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery ended higher by 23 cents or 0.4 percent at $54.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery gained 0.8 percent to $61.37 a barrel on the ICE.

Extending its winning streak for second consecutive session, Indian rupee ended stronger against US dollar on Tuesday, as the US Fed's two-day policy meet gets under way. Exporters and banks continued to give the American currency a wide berth. Rupee sentiments also got some support with SBI Research's latest report accessing that Indian economy is likely to improve to 6% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2017-18, as against 5.7% growth in the first quarter of FY18. It also said that Q2 growth might be in the lower end of 6-6.5% band with an upward bias. However, the dollar's strength against other currencies overseas and weak domestic stock markets cast a shadow on the rupee's gains. On the global front, Euro slipped by a fraction against the Dollar on Tuesday after data showed a surprise fall in Eurozone inflation during October. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.74, 11 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.85 on Monday.

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5148.68 crore against gross selling of Rs 5092.79 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1903.85 crore with gross sales of Rs 1491.51 crore.

The US markets made a modestly higher closing in the last session and though the buying interest was somewhat subdued, the tech-heavy Nasdaq reached a new record closing high. Traders are looking ahead to key economic data and earnings news in the coming days. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start of the new month, Japanese market was trading near all-time highs, as American consumer confidence data strengthened optimism in the growth outlook and investors shrugged off the latest turmoil in Washington. The Indian markets after a lackluster trade ended modestly lower in the last session following the subdued trend in the other global markets. Today, the start is likely to be in green amid positive global cues and traders will be reacting to the report of India's ranking in the World Bank ease of doing business survey for 2018 climbing a record 30 notches to 100, as a range of regulatory and policy reforms put in place by the Union and state governments over the past four years started delivering results. The survey also recognized India as one of the top five reformers in this year's assessment. Finance minister Arun Jaitley has said the target of making it to the top 50 countries in the Doing Business ranking now seems doable. Traders will also get some encouragement from the economy front, as the Core sector growth hit a six-month high in September. The index of eight core industries was up 5.2% in September, compared with 4.4% in August and 5.3% in September last year. Also, fiscal deficit improved to 91.3% of the budget estimate at the end of September from 96.1% at the end of August as revenues picked up pace. Fiscal deficit is pegged at Rs 4.99 lakh crore at the end of September, down about Rs 26,000 crore from August as second instalment of corporate taxes allowed revenue to exceed spending in the month. The banking space will keep buzzing, as the Country's largest lender, State Bank of India has announced a cut in marginal cost-based lending rates (MCLR) across maturities by 5 basis points.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)


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  • Tata Steel has reported net profit of Rs 1017.78 crore for the quarter under review as against a net loss of Rs 49.38 crore for the corresponding quarter in the FY17.

  • Bharti Telecom, promoter firm of Bharti Airtel, will acquire additional 4.62% at market price in the telecom major on or after November 3.
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has raised Rs 1,600 crore by allotment of 16,000 Non-Convertible Debentures
  • IOC has received approval for augmenting its Koyali-Sanganer pipeline capacity up to 6 MTPA.

News Analysis