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Market Commentary 01 November 2016
Markets to make soft-to-cautious start

Value buying coupled with healthy quarterly results by some heavyweights, buoyed the Indian equity markets on the last trading session of the Samvat year 2072 and beginning of the November series of derivatives contracts. Investors got some confidence with the report that Government is considering further relaxing foreign direct investment (FDI) norms in several areas, including trading, with an eye on more inflows. According to the report, the commerce and industry ministry is already on the job in this direction. There are certain sticking points in single brand retail trading that need to be reviewed. The government may also consider easing certain norms in the information and broadcasting sector, among others. Besides, appreciation in Indian rupee too aided sentiments. Indian rupee appreciated by 6 paise to 66.80 against the dollar at the time of equity markets closing on increased selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the economic situation in Asia is not as pessimistic as the rest of the world and it has a higher growth potential. Though, he also said India will have to undergo rapid urbanisation in the next two decades and conceded that management or urban infrastructure, especially of water will become a serious challenge. However, gains remained capped with report that foreign institutional investors continued to remain sellers in Indian equities with net sales of Rs 470 crore on October 27, 2016. Back home, the local benchmarks started the first day of the November F&O series on a subdued note, amid weak global cues, weighed down by profit taking in some index heavyweights. The frontline indices kept losing steam thereafter and even drifted to the lowest point in the session in mid morning trades. However, the psychological 8600 and 27800 levels proved as strong support levels for the key gauges as the benchmarks soon recovered from the lows and clawed back into the green territory in late morning session. Markets despite a strong initial trade of the first day of Samvat 2073, made a modestly lower closing on Sunday, the mood that seemed jubilant in the beginning, turned a bit cautious in the short Muhurat trading session. There was a concern on reports that margins between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton minimized for the US Presidential election. Finally BSE Sensex closed lower by 11.30 points or 0.04% to 27,930.21, while Nifty was down by 12.30 points or 0.14% to 8,625.70. Indian markets remain closed on Monday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'.

 

The US markets closed lower on Monday, finishing October with a loss, as stronger-than-expected consumer spending data underlined the view that the economy is growing at a steady pace, while a drop in oil prices and election uncertainty weighed on the minds of investors. Monday's economic data are consistent with previous releases suggesting the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in December. However, a renewed selloff by oil futures amid increased doubts that major oil-producing nations will cut production capped gains. Investors also remained cautious following new developments in the Federal Bureau of Investigation probe into Hillary Clinton's emails and how the investigation could impact the poll numbers. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is just 1 percentage point behind his rival Clinton, though a majority of voters polled said that news of the fresh email probe will make no difference to their vote. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed that the US economy is on track to grow at a 2.7 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter. The final estimate on third-quarter GDP was 2.1 percent, which was well below the 2.9 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 18.77 points or 0.10 percent to 18,142.42, Nasdaq dropped 0.96 points or 0.02 percent to 5,189.14, while S&P 500 was down 0.26 points or 0.01 percent to 2,126.15.

 

Crude oil futures declined further on Monday to hit one-month lows on doubts about Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) ability to implement its planned production cut, even as cartel officials approved a document outlining their long-term strategy. Officials from the OPEC and non-member producers met in Vienna on Saturday, but did not come to specific terms, agreeing only to meet again before a scheduled regular OPEC meeting on November 30. On Friday, talks in Vienna between OPEC members sputtered following objections from Iran, which has been reluctant to even freeze its output. According to a report, reservations over OPEC's ability to reach an agreement to limit output prompted analysts to leave their price outlook broadly unchanged. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery dropped $1.84 or 3.78 percent to close at $46.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for December delivery declined by $1.39 or 2.76 percent to $48.32 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Snapping two days losing streak, Indian rupee appreciated against dollar on Friday due to increased selling of American currency by exporters and banks. Sentiments got some support with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the economic situation in Asia is not as pessimistic as the rest of the world and it has a higher growth potential. Though, he also said India will have to undergo rapid urbanisation in the next two decades and conceded that management or urban infrastructure, especially of water will become a serious challenge. On the global front, dollar advanced to a three-month high against the yen on Friday, on track for monthly gains against most major currencies as investors waited for U.S. third-quarter growth data later in the day. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.77, 10 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.87 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6222.50 crore against gross sell of Rs 7331.33 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 631.27 crore with gross sales of Rs 1079.31 crore.

 

The US markets once again showed a lackluster trade and ended marginally down in last session, with traders showing their reluctance to make more substantial moves ahead of several significant events scheduled for later this week. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start, extending their decline, tailing the somberness in US markets overnight. Japanese market too was down ahead of BOJ meeting. The energy stocks were the major losers in early trade in the region following a plunge in oil prices. The Indian markets though made a marginally lower start of the Samvat, as the benchmark indices ended modestly in red in the short Muhurat Trading of last session, but Sensex in the trade regained psychological mark of 28000 supported by gains in pharma and IT stocks, while some selling appeared in banking and power stocks that dragged the markets lower. Today the start of the new week and new month is likely to be a bit cautious. Though, traders will be getting encouragement with Core sector output rising to three months high by 5 per cent in September, compared to growth of 2.4 per cent in the year-ago period, on the back of a sustained growth in the steel sector and a rise in refinery products. Also, a private report has said that the Indian economy is well-prepared, even if not completely immune, for any external risk in case the US Federal Reserve normalises rates in December. Traders will also be eyeing the manufacturing PMI for the month of October to be released later in the day. There will be some buzz in the FMCG stocks, as a report of the Assocham-TechSci Research has stated that domestic fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies have performed significantly well vis-a-vis the multinational companies (MNCs) in India during 2015-16. There will be lots of result announcements, while the auto companies will be reporting their monthly sales numbers.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

8625.70

8601.88

8663.88

BSE Sensex

27930.21

27848.33

28053.90

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

21.08

257.60

256.13

259.53

ICICI Bank

17.52

277.05

275.30

279.10

Idea

11.47

76.80

76.53

77.13

Axis Bank

9.38

487.70

485.60

490.40

ONGC

7.32

289.20

288.13

290.13

 

  • Tata Steel has inked an agreement for equity partnership for its Canadian Iron Ore Mines.
  • Bajaj Auto has reported 6.69% rise in its net profit of Rs 1122.75 crore for the quarter under review as compared to Rs 1052.37 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Wipro has won a five-year engagement with Speciality Restaurants, a leading fine dining operator in India, with 107 restaurants spread across India, Bangladesh, Tanzania and Doha in Qatar.
  • ICICI Bank's British subsidiary - ICICI Bank UK Plc has launched an online money transfer services to facilitate transaction from any bank accounts in Sweden, Norway and Denmark to any recipient account based in India.
  • Jet Airways has entered into code share agreements with American carrier Delta Airlines and UK-based Virgin Atlantic to expand connectivity to 24 new western cities via London Heathrow.
News Analysis