Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (30 December 2019)
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Market Commentary 31 December 2019
Markets to get pessimistic start of the final day of 2019

 

Indian equity bourses closed flat in the penultimate session of the Calendar Year 2019, amid weak cues from global markets. The start of the day was firm, aided with CII's statement that India's economy is expected to rebound in 2020 on the back of measures taken by the government & the RBI coupled with easing of global trade tensions. Adding more relief, Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu also said that Indian economy would rebound in the future and the current slowdown was cyclical. He said the economy was facing challenges due to decline in growth this fiscal & asked the gathering to be optimistic about a turnaround. However, in noon deals, markets turned negative, as the RBI flagged falling government revenue as a threat to the overall fiscal numbers -- with tax and non-tax revenues lagging way behind targets -- saying this along with weaker private consumption and investment could prove to be a challenge. But, bourses managed to trim their losses at time of closing, after FIEO said that the country's exports are expected to touch $330-340 billion during the ongoing fiscal on account of uncertain global situation and rising protectionism. During April-November, 2019-20, exports dipped by about 2 per cent to $212 billion. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 17.14 points or 0.04% to 41558.00, while the CNX Nifty was up by 10.05 points or 0.08% to 12255.85.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday as investors reassessed the market's string of recent records. There appeared to be no clear catalyst for the retracement, as upbeat news on an easing of US-China trade tensions continued to trickle in. Some cautiousness also prevailed in the markets on report that US military strikes in Iraq and Syria over the weekend. US forces conducted precision defensive strikes against five sites controlled by Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia. The US has blamed the militia for a rocket barrage that killed a US defense contractor at a military compound near Kirkuk, in northern Iraq. Besides, trading activity was relatively subdued as some traders remained away from their desks ahead of the New Year's Day holiday on Wednesday. On the economic data front, a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed pending home sales in the US rebounded in the month of November. NAR said its pending home sales index jumped 1.2 percent to 108.5 in November after falling by a revised 1.3 percent in October. Street had expected pending home sales to surge up by 1.1 percent. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. The report said pending home sales in the West spiked by 5.5 percent, while pending home sales in the Midwest climbed by 1.0 percent. On the other hand, pending home sales in the Northeast and South edged down by 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

 

Snapping a four-day winning streak, Crude oil futures ended marginally lower on Monday in quiet trading in the next-to-last trading session of the year. However, Brent crude settled higher on political tensions in North East Asia and violence in the Middle East. The US military carried out air strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran-backed militia group, while Turkey announced its plan to send forces to Libya to assist Al-Seraj government. Meanwhile, investors were keeping an eye on developments in Iraq after news reports said protesters forced the temporary closure of the country's Nasiriyah oil field. Crude oil futures for February lost 4 cents or less than 0.1 percent to settle at $61.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, February Brent added 28 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $68.44 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Monday, as bankers and exporters took to selling of American currency. Traders took some support with CII's statement that India's economy is expected to rebound in 2020 on the back of measures taken by the government and the RBI coupled with easing of global trade tensions. Some support also came with FIEO stating that the country's exports are expected to touch $330-340 billion during the ongoing fiscal on account of uncertain global situation and rising protectionism. During April-November, 2019-20, exports dipped by about 2 per cent to $212 billion. Dollar losing sheen against some other currencies overseas also supported the forex sentiment. However, lackluster trade in the equity markets capped the rupee's gain. On the global front, euro hit a 4-1/2-month high on Monday as optimism over US-China trade relations and the global growth outlook knocked demand for dollars. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.32, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.35 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3674.63 crore against gross selling of Rs 2916.90 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1904.36 crore with gross sales of Rs 1712.45 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 13.05 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.83 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday as investors booked profits from gains made this month after the United States and China reached a trade deal. Asian markets are trading lower in early deals on the last trading day of 2019, echoing falls on Wall Street. Indian markets closed flat after a see-saw trade on Monday amid lack of domestic as well as global cues. Today, the markets are likely to make pessimistic start of the final day of 2019, tracking weak global cues. Traders will remain concern on private report that the government might breach the fiscal deficit target this financial year amid drop in the revenue mobilisation and expected additional expenditure by the government. Traders may take note of a report that Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said the country's exports are expected to touch $330-340 billion during the ongoing fiscal on account of uncertain global situation and rising protectionism. During April-November, 2019-20, exports dipped by about 2 per cent to $212 billion. FIEO President Sharad Kumar Saraf said the global situation is becoming extremely challenging as rising protectionism is leading to uncertainty in global trade which will have adverse impact on it.  He said despite having a moderate share in global trade, India's exports have always followed the trend in global imports. However, some respite can come later in the day with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stating his ministry will review all existing free trade agreements (FTAs) with different countries to protect interest of industry and traders. He said India also decided to walk out from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, keeping in view the interest of small traders and dairy industry. There will be some buzz in Renewable energy sector stocks on report that ratings agency Icra revised its outlook for India's renewable energy sector from stable to negative amid delays in payments from discoms and execution of projects. The sector is facing headwinds because of the long delays in making payments by the state distribution utilities, delays in projects bid out over the past two years, difficulties in acquiring land for projects, securing transmission connectivity and financing in a timely manner.

 

  

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

12,255.85

12,217.62

12,290.27

BSE Sensex

41,558.00

41,436.01

41,697.36

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

1,525.10

47.35

46.35

48.65

Tata Motors

409.48

183.70

178.55

186.60

SBI

227.76

334.40

331.98

337.33

ICICI Bank

131.80

543.95

540.30

549.90

ITC

131.73

238.20

236.83

240.23

 

 

  • Bharti Airtel has raised its mandatory minimum recharge for pre-paid customers to Rs 45 from Rs 23.
  •  Adani Ports' wholly-owned subsidiary--Adani Logistics has signed definitive agreements to acquire 40.25% stake in Snowman Logistics from Gateway Distriparks for a consideration of Rs 296 crore.
  •  UPL has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary (WOS) company namely ‘AFS AgTech' (AFS) on December 27, 2019.
  •  Coal India has planned to ramp up daily output to meet 660 million tonne (MT) production target for FY20.
News Analysis