Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (30 May 2017)
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Market Commentary 31 May 2017
Markets to make a cautious start, GDP data eyed


Indian benchmark indices managed to extend the winning momentum for the fourth consecutive day and settled at fresh closing highs on Tuesday, as arrival of monsoon rains cheers, but the gains were capped as the investors booked profit in recent outperformers. The monsoon, which delivers about 70% of India's annual rainfall, arrived at the southern Kerala coast today, in line with forecasts, brightening the outlook for higher farm output and robust economic growth. Simultaneously, the onset is also likely over Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, some parts of Tamil Nadu and most parts of northeastern states in the next 24 hours.  Despite settling with only two tens of a percent gains, the frontline indices managed to outclass all the peers in Asia and Europe by quite a margin. The global markets continued to exhibit somber trends as investors at large remained cautious on worries about a Greek bailout and the possibility of an early election in Italy. Sentiments got some support with World Bank's expectation that India, the fastest growing major economy in the world, will grow at 7.2% in the current fiscal and further up to 7.7% by 2019-20 on strong fundamentals, reform momentum and improving investment scenario. It noted that demonetisation in November 2016 caused a slight disruption to India's growth recovery, following a favourable monsoon last fiscal, but things seem to be bettering. However, weak trend in global markets, continued foreign fund outflows and muted earnings posted by some blue-chip companies, have limited the gains. Meanwhile, India's capital market regulator has proposed to tighten rules on offshore derivative instruments (ODI) by imposing 'regulatory fees' and prohibiting the sales of such products unless they are issued for hedging purposes. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 50.12 points or 0.16% to 31159.40, while the CNX Nifty was up by 19.65 points or 0.20% to 9,624.55.

 

The US markets closed lower on Tuesday, as energy shares weighed on Wall Street, leading to break a seven-session streak of advances for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. In political news, which has proved one of the equity market's main drivers, North Korea on Monday held its third missile launch in as many weeks and claimed it has improved on its ability to accurately fire long-range ballistic missiles, an alarming development if confirmed. Adding to the market's concerns were reports over the weekend that President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner had considered setting up a secret channel of communication with Russia during the presidential transition. On the economy front, consumer confidence fell in May for the second month in a row, suggesting Americans have tempered their expectations for the economy after a huge burst of optimism earlier in the year. The consumer confidence index dropped to 117.9 in May from 119.4 in April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 50.81 points or 0.24 percent to 21,029.47, Nasdaq was down 7.0 points or 0.11 percent to 6,203.19, while S&P 500 edged lower by 2.91 points or 0.12 percent to 2,412.91.

 

Crude oil futures declined on Tuesday as the floor trading resumed on Nymex after a long weekend, as investors continued to question whether OPEC and its allies' agreement to only extend, but not deepen, production cuts would reduce excess supply. Traders shrugged off incoming economic data, instead looking toward upcoming U.S. inventories data that will roll out over the next few days. Oil inventories data will be delayed a day due to the Memorial Day holiday. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery declined by $0.14 or 0.3 percent to $49.66 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for July delivery ended down by $0.25 to $52.28 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended substantially weaker against dollar on Tuesday, on increased month-end demand for the American currency from importers and banks. Sentiments remained down-beat ahead of the release of the gross domestic product (GDP) data on May 31. Besides, US dollar's gain against other currencies overseas too dragged the rupee down. On the global front, yen strengthened against major counterparts on Tuesday, as investors fret about a Greek bailout and the possibility of an early election in Italy. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.66, 17 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.49 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3952.28 crore against gross selling of Rs 4759.88 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 612.80 crore with gross sales of Rs 320.42 crore.

 

The US markets snapped their long winning streak in the last session, after data showed US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in May, the second consecutive monthly decline. Major weakness was seen in the energy and banking stocks.The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start led by the Chinese market after country's manufacturing data exceeded estimates. The Indian markets recovering from early choppiness posted modest gains in the last session, with benchmark indices extending their record breaking run on hopes of timely arrival of monsoon rains. Today, the start is likely to be mildly in green, though some cautiousness will be there ahead of the fourth quarter GDP numbers to be released post market hours.  Meanwhile, India`s former chief statistician Pronab Sen has said that the country`s GDP for 2016-17 will get a 50 basis points (bps) push to 7.6 percent from the government`s estimate of 7.1 percent, due to the recent revision of the base year of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Traders will continue getting encouragement with Southwest monsoon arriving in Kerala on the expected date this year and also advancing into some parts of the Northeast India. Also, Prime Minister Narendra Modi while speaking at the Indo-German Business Summit in Berlin has said that India has one of the most liberal FDI policy regimes in the world and more than 90 percent of foreign investment flows are under automatic route. There will be some buzz in the markets with Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia did not ruling out the scope for rationalisation of tax rates fixed on various goods and services under the GST regime to be implemented from July one. The aviation stocks will be in action with Civil Aviation Ashok Gajapathi Raju stating that average airfares dropped 18 percent in 2016 and additional capacities can further bring down the fares. There will be lots of important earnings announcements to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9624.55

9592.07

9646.17

BSE Sensex

31159.40

31075.50

31231.84

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Hindalco

274.44

203.15

199.42

208.62

Aurobindo Pharma

193.91

580.30

529.73

607.68

ICICI Bank

141.57

321.40

315.73

325.78

Sun Pharma

109.37

508.00

503.15

511.70

Vedanta

105.12

244.90

241.52

247.32

  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T Constructions has won orders worth Rs 5,146 crore across various business segments.
  • Tata Power's wholly-owned subsidiary Tata Power Solar, formerly known as Tata BP Solar has more than doubled its revenue to Rs 2,262 crore in two years.
  • TCS has launched 'Engineering Environment as a Service', a cloud based framework developed on the Red Hat OpenStack Platform.
  • ONGC's onshore domestic crude oil production has increased to 5.97 MMT during the fiscal year ended March compared to 5.82 MMT in FY16, registering a growth of 2.4%.
News Analysis