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NSE Intra-day chart (26 April 2017)
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Market Commentary 27 April 2017
Markets to make a soft start tailing weak global cues


The penultimate day of April series futures and options contract expiry turned out to be a good session for the Indian frontline equity indices as they managed to settle higher for a third straight session, with both Sensex and Nifty closing at fresh record highs, buoyed by better-than-expected quarterly results and positive global cues. Investor sentiments around the globe turned optimistic on possible tax cuts, likely to be announced on Wednesday by President Donald Trump to stimulate the US economy and the outcome of the French election allaying immediate concerns of political uncertainty in the euro zone. On the domestic front, sentiments got a boost after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley asserted that the government was giving top priority to addressing the issue of bad loans, while acknowledging that the problem of non-performing assets was ‘adversely impacting' the Indian banking system. Besides, Indian rupee appreciating against the dollar to trade at a near 21-month high of 64.07 fuelled the bull run of the bourses. Investors got some confidence from the survey indicating that India continues to remain an economic bright spot despite some bold but disruptive reforms. The FICCI-PwC India Manufacturing Barometer (IMB) survey stated that about 63% of respondents were 'somewhat optimistic' about the prospects of the Indian economy for the coming year, representing a significant jump over last year's 58%.Some support also came with Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia assuring that prices will not increase due to higher incidence of tax and instead, are likely to come down under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime. He said that though most services will be taxed at 18% under the GST regime, as against the current 15% service tax, a majority of these will get input tax credit on purchases and the overall tax incidence will remain the same. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 190.11 points or 0.63% to 30133.35, while the CNX Nifty was up by 45.25 points or 0.49% to 9,351.85.

 

The US markets closed lower on Wednesday, retreating from intraday highs after an outline of President Donald Trump's tax plan was seen as light on detail. The expectation of a corporate tax cut was partly behind the rally in US stocks since the November election of Donald Trump. The market stalled over the last several weeks as the administration has failed to score a major legislative victory, Republican majorities in the House and Senate notwithstanding. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn rolled out a one-page outline of Trump's tax-reform plan in a news conference, promising more details later. He said there was fundamental agreement between President Donald Trump's administration and the Congress on the goals of the tax reform, and the details would be worked out. The market was looking for more specific color on rates and the reduction of exemptions, but color on the repatriation tax, which is the single most important issue, was left unaddressed at that press conference. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.03 points or 0.10 percent to 20,975.09, Nasdaq dropped 0.26 points to 6,025.23, while S&P 500 ended lower by 1.16 points or 0.05 percent to 2,387.45.

 

Crude oil futures extended their gains on Tuesday, crude prices soared above $50 a barrel, but pared gains later during the session, as investors weighed the rise in production against the larger than expected drawdown in US crude inventories.  A day after industry group the American Petroleum Institute reported an estimated increase of 897,000 barrels in US inventories, the EIA said there was actually a draw of 3.6 million barrels for the week to April 21. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories grew by 3.369 million, while distillate stockpiles rose by 2.651 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery ended higher by $0.06 or 0.11 percent to $49.62 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery ended down by $ 0.13 at $51.97 on the ICE.

 

Maintaining the good form for the third day, Indian rupee ended at nearly 20-month high against dollar on Wednesday due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained positive with a survey indicating that India will continue to remain an economic bright spot despite some bold but disruptive reforms. Moreover, dollar's weakness against other currencies overseas, foreign fund inflows and a strong domestic equity market too kept the domestic unit in good spirit. On the global front, dollar edged higher against yen on Wednesday, while the euro held firm near a 5-1/2 month high due to receding concerns about the risks posed by the French presidential election. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.11, 16 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.27 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5660.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 5334.27 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 790.89 crore with gross sales of Rs 882.07 crore.

 

The US markets made a marginally lower closing in the last session, the major averages pulled back going into the close, ending the session just below the unchanged line. The decline came after officials from President Donald Trump's administration unveiled the president's highly anticipated tax reform plan. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start, coming off their five days rally as investors assessed a plan to overhaul U.S. taxes, while awaiting policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. The Indian markets extending their jubilation mood surged to record highs in the last session, with Sensex surging to a fresh life time closing high of over 30000. There was some support with both Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and the NITI Aayog clarifying that the Modi government has no plans to impose any tax on agriculture income, as proposed by the government's think tank in its long term vision document. Today, the start of the F&O series expiry session is likely to be mildly soft tailing the weakness in other global markets. Also, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has expressed concern over the worrying signs of economic protectionism and has said the continued unpredictability in ties between major powers has brought new uncertainties to the fore. There will be some cautiousness in the banking sector, with Axis Bank's numbers, the third-largest private sector lender, on Wednesday after the market hours reported a 43% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in its net profit for the quarter ended March to Rs 1,225.1 crore, as provisions jumped 121% over the previous year to Rs 2,581.25 crore. However, some respite can come with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's assertion that the government was giving top priority to addressing the issue of bad loans while acknowledging that the problem of non-performing assets was "adversely impacting" the Indian banking system. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9351.85

9313.13

9378.78

BSE Sensex

30133.35

30012.25

30210.77

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ITC

189.42

290.90

284.30

295.20

SBI

138.37

286.45

283.37

289.52

ICICI Bank

138.23

276.90

273.95

278.90

Hindalco

134.69

197.00

193.58

199.43

Axis Bank

115.17

517.15

508.47

525.42

 
  • Yes Bank has entered into partnership with Paisabazaar.com under which the Bank will offer conditionally approved loans to the latter's existing customers.
  • NTPC has launched an issue of Rs 2000 crore notes due 2022 priced on April 25, 2017.
  • Bharti Airtel has added 29.99 lakh users in March 2017.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra's - wholly owned subsidiary - Mahindra Overseas Investment Company, has acquired 100% of the equity share capital of Mahindra Automotive North America Inc. in USA.
News Analysis